Periodically we get posts about solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CME's) etc. I thought I would post information on solar conditions that might impact Earth and attempt to keep it current.
To appreciate the possible severity of solar flares you must understand the scale by which they are measured. This is a brief description of the scale.
There are five categories of solar flares: A, B, C, M and X. They are measured by their X-ray brightness. Type A and B are negligible and type C have very few effects on the Earth. Type M are medium and can cause brief polar radio blackouts. X-class flares are the big ones and can cause planet wide radio blackouts and long lasting radiation storms.
Each class of flare is subdivided into a nine point scale i.e. M 1 to M9 an X1 to X9. Although some flares have been estimated to have been X45!
The direction of the flare with respect to Earth is very important. If it is pointed our way then we encounter the associated CME which then impacts the Earth as a magnetic storm. A X9 or bigger flare pointed directly at the Earth would probably be good night to the electrical grid system.
You can check the Suns current conditions at:
http://www.spaceweather.com/ and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
There is a 40% chance of an M class flare in the next 24 hours from sunspot AR 1564. The active region is turning toward the Earth.
Thanks a lot ICRCC. I really have never been aware of this sort of thing but am interested.
Cheers,
Antsy
Needs must when the devil drives.
thanks for the info
Here is another site for you solar buffs. The page is a little "busy" but there is lots of information.
There is a small 20% chance of M-class solar flares from sunspot AR1564 today . Otherwise, solar activity is expected to remain low through tomorrow.
There is a 30% chance of strong geomagnetic storms in the polar regions in the next two or three days due to the solar wind flowing from the coronal holes that are currently pointing in our direction.
Thanks for the legend ICRCC. I am interested but it seems others are farther into it than I am and I will get info from those people. Can only learn one thing at a time. I like economics and quakes.
The sun is very quite at present and will remain so for the next few days. However a new comet named ISON has been discovered and this comet will have a very close encounter with the Sun in November 2013. It may well be visible with the naked eye to us for a couple of months next fall.
The sun is very quite at the moment on the side facing the earth. However a large sunspot exploded on the far side of the sun causing a massive CME. It will not affect the earth.
The 2012 Harvest Moon will be this weekend's full moon.
We drew a natural seven on that dice roll, just hope we dont see snake eyes in the future.
"We 'Prep.' to live after a downfall, Not just to survive."
A G2 level geomagnetic storm is expected to hit sometime tomorrow due to a full halo CME followed by a dual filament flare, both earthbound. Honestly, it sounds worse than it is...
Here are the NOAA explanations of a G2 storm...
Moderate
Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.
Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)**.
Here is the latest GOES solar x-ray image. You don't need to be a scientist to see that the sun is active.
The next few days were supposed to be quiet for solar activity...so much for the predictions.
Why do these always hit when theres cloud cover, wont be able to see the N.lights.
"We 'Prep.' to live after a downfall, Not just to survive."
Absolutely great northern lights here last night. Best I have seen in a long time, dancing and swirling, several colours. Even with the full moon out they were really bright. 😀
Let no good deed go unpunished.
Absolutely great northern lights here last night. Best I have seen in a long time, dancing and swirling, several colours. Even with the full moon out they were really bright. 😀
No surprise, apparently we were hit with a G3 geomagnetic sudden impulse last night!
Here is the NOAA description for a G# level storm...
Strong
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.