Things are happening quickly, perhaps too quickly. Covid is going to affect you one way or another.
Variants. I can’t count how many times I’ve talked about how this virus mutates. It actually mutates every single time it replicates. Usually, these mutations are as significant as a three dollar bill, but every once in a while, it mutates into something that makes it even more dangerous. We’ve already seen it mutate to be able to infect mink. Now, there’s a variant that makes it even more contagious. Ever wonder why the second wave has infected so may more people than the first?
At the time of writing this article, official sources claim that there are only 6 cases of the new, more contagious variant in Canada. Personally, I have a hard time believing that. During the first wave, Canada’s daily cases spiked at 2760 on May 3rd. What we see on the second wave is a spike to 10 176 on January 2nd. That’s over 3 and a half times the infection rate. If this were to happen again for a third wave, Canada could be looking at well over 35 000 cases per day.
Vaccination is the official word of the day. The problem with this approach is that we don’t know exactly how many people need to get vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity. The best estimates range between 50% and 90%. With latest polls showing that 25% of Canadians not wanting the vaccine, those estimates simply don’t give us an answer as to the question of can we beat it with vaccinations.
Looking back at the past year, we can see that a serious uptake in cases occurred in October. So, from the peak in May, to the uptake in cases in October, only 5 months passed. Given the numbers, I think it’s safe to assume that a new, more contagious variant developed sometime in early October. If we use this as a guide, we could expect another serious mutation by June 2021 at the latest. The issue with that is we are only expected to have the population vaccinated by September 2021, 3 months after the very real possibility of a new variant. We are losing the race on the vaccine front. Just to add to the dilemma, there is no guarantee that the current vaccines will be effective against any new serious mutations of the virus.
Governments seem to be noticing this problem as well. Here in Quebec, we are waiting for harsher restrictions to be announced today. It is highly suspected that these restrictions will shut everything deemed non-essential. Schools, stores (except grocery, pharmacy, etc), construction, manufacturing and more will be forced to close for what is expected to be as long as a month. We’ve lived through that before, but this time we are expecting a bonus restriction of a curfew, somewhere between 8 and 9 PM. In Quebec, we haven’t seen this since the FLQ started bombing mailboxes back in 1970. I have serious doubts that Quebec will be the only province to do this.
Whether you believe that this virus is no worse than the seasonal flu, or you believe it’s the worst thing since the Spanish Flu, one thing you had better believe is that it WILL AFFECT YOUR LIFE. Be that from contracting it, or throwing a serious monkey wrench into your financial situation, no one is going to be immune from what it does to society.
