This is what will throw civilized society into disarray....not earthquakes or pandemics or tsunamis....Peak Oil....and it's here!!!
"I think that I am very reasonable therefore ......." ICRCC
Don't agree at all, I think they only thing pecking is oil profits. Its called create scarcity.
hey Beth, I respectfully disagree...
big companies like Exxon only make only 8 cents for every dollar invested....if you owned a small business with only an 8% return you'd put a match to it, claim on the insurance and get a job in Timmies....who'd work for 8 % profit....however the oil industry sells over 80,000,000 barrels a day now and thats estimated to make at least 100,000,000 a day by 2015 with the massive surge in demand from India/ China...
the oil companies have agreed to stick to their 8% profit margin.....because they sell so much...Brent is currently $114 a barrel...at 80,000,000 barrels a day....thats over 9 billion in sales daily.....8 % profits....$720,000,000 in profits daily....not bad for a days work eh? still only 8 % though...
Peak Oil is real and is nothing to do with profits...its accesability, how easy can you get that oil out of the ground? if its hard to get out, it costs more obviously....if its costs more then the price of oil is going to go up....because Exxon and BP want to keep they're 8 % profit margin...in the next two to three years they are not going to be able to drag 80,000,000 barrels of oil out of the ground daily, never mind the extra 20,000,000 to shore up the need from emerging economies....what happens to the price of oil if theres not enough of it for everyone...the price will natural go up...
my estimate $2.50 a litre here in Canada by 2015....oil rationing....etc
im not being pesimistic or suggesting the end of the world....life will go on, until we find something else....however, the transistion is going to be one hell of a ride....hang on!
"I think that I am very reasonable therefore ......." ICRCC
why drill deeper if we still have readily avail acess to oil?
"I think that I am very reasonable therefore ......." ICRCC
Google -abiotic oil-. Peak oil is a myth.
Google -abiotic oil-. Peak oil is a myth.
really...got to your local gas station today....$1.30 a litre...supply and demand
"I think that I am very reasonable therefore ......." ICRCC
OK Now find out what happened in Russia/siberia. They punched a hole really deep and tapped a pocket which was under a pressure that they couldn't control. Eventually they bored a hole at an angle to it and dropped a tac nuke in there to seal the hole.
Fast Forward to the BP Gulf. The Yank's and Brits, being smarter than the Russians tought that the water table on top of the oil wells will help control the intense pressure. They bored really deep also. the rest is history.
But think. Think. Oil is not Abiotic right? It comes from dinosuars. Right. And dinosaurs bones and shyte are in shallow layers on the planet. Not deep. Shallow Not deep. Russia was 75,000 The Gulf was 105,000. I'm going off my memory here, forgive me if I'm wrong. Ever hear of a dinosaur bone that deep?
ONe other small point, the end of the dinosaurs may likely have been a massive meteorite that dropped in the Gulf of Mexico. What are the odds dinosaur bones survived that?
So if Oil ONLY comes from dinosaur stuff, where did that oil come from? Think. Connect the dots. Or tell me that you believe everything you're told and there was no one on the grassy knoll. Either way I don't care.
Actually:
For starters, 36 percent of American oil is domestic. Another 22 percent of America's oil comes from the hostile and violent country of, uh, Canada. In fact, our friendly neighbor to the north produces more of America's oil than all the gulf countries combined. So that's over half of America's oil controlled by countries with NBA franchises. Did we mention that America's third largest supplier of oil is Mexico?
Read more: 6 B.S. Myths You Probably Believe About America's 'Enemies' | Cracked.com http://www.cracked.com/article_19461_6-b.s.-myths-you-probably-believe-about-americas-enemies.html#ixzz1oof2ogUL
That deep deep oil is hard to explain with the dino theory. The fact is that the easy oil to extract is running out fast. Even if it's abiotic, it took a hell of a long time to build up and we're using it a damn sight faster that it's being made and increasing our use every day.
It's peak oil either way.
That deep, deep oil is the abiotic stuff. In Saudi Arabia the planet took an asteroid strike there and fractured the bedrock. The abiotic oil has bubbled up through the cracks. In the Gwalahur oil fields they have been using tertiary methods of oil extraction and oddly enough the fields are repressurizing. Same in the Bering Sea the North Sea ect. These older oil fields are repressurizing and there is no conventional explanation for this. Abiotic oil allows for this.
I used to beleive in peak oil and the bible of it is Twilight in the Desert by Micheal Simmons. Although Yergin's books aren't bad either although they support the peak oil conspiracy theory.
But yes the easy, accessible oil is gone. Science and industry could get us out of here BUT think of the losses in coporate profits!!! Can you inagine the issues at the country club if some CEO misses a yacht payment?
Peak oil support the current paradigm. Abiotic oil is the reality. Choose.
That there is even debate over this is simply ridiculous.
Fact - American oil discoveries peaked in the 1930's
Fact - American oil production peaked in the 1970's
Fact - Global oil discoveries peaked in the 1960's
These are facts and you cannot disagree, dispute or debate them.
If you you think we can can achieve infinite growth on a finite planet you are either insane or lack basic mathematical understanding.
The only reason the planet can currently sustain 7 billion people is because of finite fossil fuels. That is about to change.
The German military has done reports. The US military has. So has the IMF. The head of the IEA has confirmed oil supply is about to become constricted.
Richard Branson and 20 other leading UK business people have commissioned 2 reports on peak oil. All these reports are public.
Peak oil is a real scary subject and many people just can't handle it.
But if you refuse to acknowledge peak oil, here is a list of people much smarter than you, some of whom have been researching this stuff longer than most of us have been alive.
Richard Heinberg
Prof Al Bartlett
Dr Robert Hirsch
Dr Colin Campbell
Chris Martenson
Jeremy Leggett
William R Catton
Dennis Meadows
Jared Diamond
And there are many, many others.
This debate shouldn't even be taking place. The exponential growth we've experienced for the last couple of hundred years thanks to fossil fuel energy is ending right now. It's happening as we speak. Take a look at out the window.
And just one more thing while we are on the subject. If you don't understand EROIE or even know what it is, then this isn't a discussion for you.
Well, I had to google your acronym, eltoro, so perhaps I'm not allowed in the discussion.
But here's my two cents anyway: you're completely right on all accounts. It seems most estimates place peak oil around 2010 or 2012 give or take a few years. But even if we still had tons of undiscovered oil, it doesn't matter. Demand is going up. Supply is going down. The shit is going to get real. But no one I broach the subject with in real life seems to agree. I just hope that I'm totally totally wrong and they're totally right. I've had a great 30 years so far and the next 30 could be not too bad, but I've got little kids and their future is what frightens me.
Also, I wish Alberta would stop selling our natural resources like oil and water at such a fast rate to the US and now China. Let's all slow down.
And just one more thing while we are on the subject. If you don't understand EROIE or even know what it is, then this isn't a discussion for you.
Just to correct the acronym, as it is a very important concept: it is EROEI.
Energy Returne(d) On Energy Invested 😉
