Interesting developments going on. I have been wondering what Russia was going to do when their mostly friendly to Russia leader dies or leadership otherwise changes.
Ukraine and Belarus were the only two states that hadnt joined Nato and we all know what happened when Ukraine started considering such a move (or Georgia). It lost its valuable strategic areas, the Donets industrial basin and Crimea.
From the viewpoint of Russia I cant see them waiting around only to see Nato Arms and forces move closer to Moscow, much closer. I dont see them taking the whole country but rather balkanizing it, maybe moving the border further west by 100km or so. They would be fools not to do so. In their place, I would have already given the order. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Natural areas to secure would be right up to the Dnieper river cleaving off a good buffer zone from south east Belarus, and from the north the area up to the Zapadnaya Dvina river. That would still leave a small middle section of Belarus unsecured on the Russian border but from Russian perspective they might be able to live with that as these two new areas will partially flank that area.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.
I find it interesting that Lukashenko said "There will be no new election until you kill me" yesterday. It sounds like he has given the protesters a option they may very well choose. Infact, maybe the only way forward. I cant help but think of Ceaușescu at this time. He too didnt know when to exit stage left.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.
I don't think Putin would like to see another popular uprising leading to regime change so close to home. Don't want to give his citizens any ideas. It's probably one of the few things he might worry about.
