The idea of a second, and possibly third, wave of Covid-19 has been a possibility since this whole mess started in January. Now, as the number of new cases in Canada is on the rise, are we there?
First, we have to figure out if the first wave is even over. Many say it isn’t. Keep in mind that no one has ever said that cases have to drop to zero for the wave to be over. Quebec and Ontario, the two most hard hit provinces reduced the daily case numbers from nearly a thousand a day each, to well under a hundred. Some provinces did actually go down to zero, at least for a while. To me, this indicates the end of the first wave.
Now, we are seeing daily cases rise. Unlike the first wave, where most cases were being found in long term care centers, these new outbreaks are being attributed to house parties, lax social distancing practices, and of all things, Karaoke bars. There is no one single cause this time around, which is even more worrying.
Let’s be clear though, I am by no means sounding the alarm or claiming that the sky is falling. At this point, we are still far away from seeing the numbers from March/April. We do however, need to keep an eye on this for a while.
Make no mistake, if your province clamped down on the first wave, it will do so again, possibly even harder. The economy will suffer, and your income may be affected even more than it already has been. Masks and other PPE are available now, so go get it while you can. It may soon become a huge pain in the butt just to go grocery shopping. Stock up on food and other supplies. We have learned these lessons, so it’s now time to put them into practice.
So what’s my actual prediction? If pressed, I would have to say we are seeing the start of the second wave, with about 75% certainty. Hopefully I’m wrong.