The question has been asked. Perhaps more so in the USA and Brazil as restrictions were largely set aside compared to other countries. But is it worth it? Shut the economy down, create hardships to stop a pandemic with a relatively small mortality rate?
Some interesting reads:
"His initial modeling efforts showed that even a yearlong lockdown makes economic sense, to allow time for a vaccine to be developed. The pause would shrink the economy by approximately 22%—a cost of $4.2 trillion. By comparison, the model shows that without containment measures, the economy would contract by about 7% over that year—but as many as 500,000 additional lives would be lost, which translates into a loss of roughly $6.1 trillion."
"Economists are also weighing subtler interactions between health and economics, including the possibility that the economic shock itself will add to the body count. Public health experts broadly agree that more suicides happen in recessions. Scientists found an additional 4750 suicides in the United States over 3 years attributable to the Great Recession of 2008. Trump pointed to a potential increase in suicides as a reason for loosening restrictions."
"Yet economic downturns have typically translated into a net drop in deaths, says Christopher Ruhm, an economist at the University of Virginia who has studied the phenomenon. Although suicides can rise, decreased economic activity can save lives partly because it reduces traffic accidents and air pollution, he says."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200511112538.htm
https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738
I do not agree with current economic lockdown.
The info you provided is great and thought provoking and there’s lots in there to influence a wide range of decisions.
This event is also turning into a political issue and that’s dangerous. roughly, you see the battle lines drawn between right and left, you see agendas like living wages or minimum income being put forward, subsidies for green energy, playing of one group against the other, our current WE scandal with prime ministers family....
As this is not a political forum, I only mention these points from the effects that can and will impact those who wish to be prepared and thus avoid danger to ourselves from an ice storm, flood, political upheaval and everything else.
Besides the risk of the cursed virus is the risk of economic failures and not only any personal impact from a job loss that it may represent but all the other events that go with it. Gun hysteria, riots, potential for ongoing swings in governments, crazy political or social ideas that have long lasting effects, Shifts in where people live ( who wants crazy city people with all their crazy city beliefs moving beside your peaceful country or wilderness retreat)....
So there is a ton of easily yet seldom discussed side effects that have a tremendous impact to society and how we live. It’s one of the things I have always enjoyed learning about and being part of. Without going into details, if you study how a country can be overthrown.....you learn about all the triggers that can be pulled to get the desired result or conversely, what one needs to be are of to counter an attack or all the events that will likely unfold due to a natural disaster.
As we have seen with covid, it’s all the seemingly tiny effects that can compound into cascading issues that often bite us. Like the wheat farmer I think I once mentioned, telling the TV reporter there will be no shortage of bread in canada. Well bless his heart, but he didn’t think of all the other players involved in the process, same for meds, meat, portable sawmills........
One of the first things you do at a crime scene is lock down access and that was a huge mistake we made. Another mistake was and we are still not Doing it, is to separate Covid patients from normal patients. So many screwups that were easily avoided and I say easily avoided because they were all known, amply discussed issues dating back decades. Our leaders simply failed to execute the plans long since recommended and developed to handle this.
So circling back to the economy, the consequences of fiddling with economic lockdowns, goes way beyond immediate dollars and can and will if not managed properly, severely alter democracies and as a result, our current way of life. That for me is the big nut. It’s what this is doing and can do, to our way of life that worries me the most. The economics are simply a trigger being pulled, it’s the shotgun pattern coming out that is the real concern. Is it a slug or #7 I fear it’s a#7 and there will be wounded birds flapping around for many years to come.
