http://sidc.be/index.php

i like "the Royal Observatory of Belgium" reports better, some of them take the NOAA reports into account, but they are independant too. they also give info like "this is NOT pointed earthward" etc. for well rounded info, i have accounts with both.

funny i was thinking of posting this stuff, and here it is 😀

Cool - thanks Entrophy. Always nice to have more then one source. Can't believe how much activity there has been in the last little while.

it's chilled out the last while (still flares but smaller). . . back in Feb or Mar, we where getting a lot of X and high M class flares. this has been peacefull. i don't worry until an M6 or higher, starts spouting in our direction. but again, a lot is still unknown about a lot of this.

Yeah I have been doing a little reading up on it and it seems it has to be pointed right earth to be devastating. Considering the size of the sun, and the chance that a flare would be directly pointed at us... not as high of a probability as I thought. But in true prepping fashion I will keep it on my radar just in case. War with Iran/US/Isreal seems more concerning or a currency implosion. Either way, 90% of my preps seem useful regardless of the disaster.

Any one who does not believe that we are in threat of a solar event should be asked, "Then why would NASA, hold a "Solar Threat symposium". This symposium was held last spring for the Major City and Country Emergency Response agencies, such as FEMA and others around the world. It was sold out. :geek:

Hey Ranger - definitely don't want to rule out the threat potential. I just always thought it was it was 60%-70% over the next 10 years and it turns out it is more like a 10%-15% threat, but still nothing to dismiss. One good prep that power companies are now doing, probably because of conferences like the one NASA put on, is storing key components needed to restore the grid in shielded areas. The more that this topic is discussed the better.

It not 15% over the next 10 years, its over the next 6 months. This is suppose to be the worst solar maxima in the past 200 years. We could have another Carrington event such as what happened in 1859.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Good luck to us all.

CME vs Transformers
by ranger2012 » Thu Apr 26, 2012 12:51 pm

CME vs. Transformers

I have been thinking ( a dangerous thing at any time) about Transformers, the companies that make them and the industries that supply them.
If (God forbid) a major CME (coronal mass ejection) were to hit the earth and 80% of the large step-down transformer’s (found at power stations) and small (on your street post) were to melt down, the Specialist have claimed that it would take 2-10 years before the lights would come back on. No ELECTRICITY.

Reality Check.
OK it takes a full year, for a large transformer to be built, WHEN and if they have the parts that they require to build them. Most companies are on the JIT or Just In Time delivery system. Most industries are 100’s of mile’s away from the company that they supply. Most of them require trucks to deliver these parts. Older trucks might still work but they still need fuel, no power, no fuel. And all of the companies require ELECTRICITY to manufacture these parts.

Now we talk about PEOPLE, since the majority of the cars today are micro technologied, a big CME would wipe them out. The Los Angeles area could boast that they have the longest/largest parking lot in the world, especially if all cars died during rush hour. But back to the point, how far do you have to drive to get to work, how long would it take you to get to work by bicycle, (if you have one) and when you get there, would it be open.
How long can most people last without the food stores, gas-pumps, and the pharmacies’. How Many people that you know have a usable adult bike.
How many people have enough cash on hand to buy food/gas/medicines.
The only people that I know of that has a lot of cash at any time, are drug pushers, politicians, the extreme upper class and pimps and some preppers.

And last but not least, how many skilled people would be left after 2 month after a melt down. After the sanitary and water systems fail, how many SKILLED people would be left that were not affected by all diseases and maladies that would follow. All of the diseases that had been suppressed would once again appear and be rampant, Starvation, Cholera, Lyme Disease, West Nile, Malaria, TB, Typhoid, Smallpox, Plague (Bubonic, Pneumonic, Septicemic) any type of Flu and STD’s.

So would we be seeing FEMA work camps, to ensure that the right people survive to rebuild the industry? Would you be invited to live in one of the underground bases that the American Government developed, DUMB, or Deep Underground Military Bases, each able to contain 10 - 100 thousand people each.

The celestial scientist have claimed that we are due for a CME soon, maybe 12-21-12? Who knows when or how strong it will be. Will you be one of the survivors or an occupant of a mass grave.
One more thing, if it happens, how long would it be before the US of A would change to United States of North America.
Last edited by ranger2012 on Thu Apr 26, 2012 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"We 'Prep.' to live after a downfall, Not just to survive."ranger2012

Bunch of good thoughts Ranger. What scares me is the compounding effect one simple act like losing power has on everything around us. After a week law and order would probably break down. After a few weeks the average joe is now out of clean water & food and sewage is backing up everywhere. And then look at where we live Ranger, if the power was out just for few months we would have to bug out because of the nuclear plants located around us. It just seems everyone should be a little more concerned with losing power, regardless of how it happens, you would think at least local groups or some level of government would be giving this likely scenario the appropriate consideration it deserves.

And yes a United States of North America is very likely with all the great resources we have. Only scary thing is if the Chinese keep buying it all we might be living in a potential war zone with the old and new super powers battling for our water, fuel and food resources.

Yup

without too much elaboration, while at provincial (ont) gov emergency training this year, they did say solar flares are the newest, biggest realistic concern/focus they have right now. complete devastation for those who are unprepared, and our gov figures that, most (99.9999 perhaps?) arent prepared. its a very real very scary reality.

Looks like we would get about 3 days warning if there was a big one on the way. Wonder what the line at Walmart would like?

http://www.weather.com/news/solar-superstorm-power-grid-20120806

7% chance in 10 years. Its a pretty low chance subjectively speaking but my comfort level on this isn't high. The bright point, government has already been working on this for some time now. Not so bright point, they ain't there yet in minimizing the effect if it ever did occur. Bright point...they will be....not so bright point....it won't be tomorrow... 🙂 So ya, I guess prepping for it is a great idea.

Foundation technologies like Electricity have become so interwoven with our society, that complete removal of it would be an overwhelming disaster.