My time is tight but I shouldn't leave you folks hanging.

To start. For those that freak at hearing Jesus coming from my lips...I refer you the parable of the Good Samaritan. Context. Samaritans were considered a heretical cult. Jesus's point to his religious listeners - It doesn't matter what you believe. Only what you actually DO.

I'll cut what I actually wanted to say about the demographic bubble short. I hope you did the homework http://www.peakprosperity.com/video/85850/playlist/92161/crash-course-chapter-15-demographics

Sooo... The Baby Boomers are retiring on mass but their isn't the tax base from the younger generation to support them. Many Boomers planned on selling there assets to fund their retirements, but there wont be anyone to buy them. Their assets will DRAMATICLY fall in price. Housing prices will drastically fall. The medical system will be overwhelmed, with not enough people to pay for it and a mass shortage of doctors and nurse because they retired as well. The stuff the qualified people knew and didn't teach the younger generation will disappear with them. This includes the farmers. We will suddenly realise how important they were. Because of tax loss, we will see our infrastructure break down. Expect roads to get a lot worse or snow clearing to drastically reduce. Ill let your mind figure out the rest of this.

On the plus side...Jobs are about to become plentiful.... At least until the house of cards tumbles. I'm sure, some government will toot their own horn about how they created the recovery. Of course once they see the problem...Expect all taxes to RISE DRAMATICLY whether you can pay for it or not. Forclosures, Houses confiscated for tax delinquency, Not being able to pay your electrical bills.....Well, a lot of boomers will die from exposure in the dark if their kids don't take them in.
It will be a good time to buy farms.
OK. That's all the time I can spare. I'll let you figure out the rest of the implications.

As I said, Weird things happen to me. I don't know why I brought up the subject of the Magna Carta.

But I just found out about 5 minutes ago that today is the 800th anniversary of the Magna Carta. Happy freedom day

My time is tight but I shouldn't leave you folks hanging.

To start. For those that freak at hearing Jesus coming from my lips...I refer you the parable of the Good Samaritan. Context. Samaritans were considered a heretical cult. Jesus's point to his religious listeners - It doesn't matter what you believe. Only what you actually DO.

I'll cut what I actually wanted to say about the demographic bubble short. I hope you did the homework http://www.peakprosperity.com/video/85850/playlist/92161/crash-course-chapter-15-demographics

Sooo... The Baby Boomers are retiring on mass but their isn't the tax base from the younger generation to support them. Many Boomers planned on selling there assets to fund their retirements, but there wont be anyone to buy them. Their assets will DRAMATICLY fall in price. Housing prices will drastically fall. The medical system will be overwhelmed, with not enough people to pay for it and a mass shortage of doctors and nurse because they retired as well. The stuff the qualified people knew and didn't teach the younger generation will disappear with them. This includes the farmers. We will suddenly realise how important they were. Because of tax loss, we will see our infrastructure break down. Expect roads to get a lot worse or snow clearing to drastically reduce. Ill let your mind figure out the rest of this.

On the plus side...Jobs are about to become plentiful.... At least until the house of cards tumbles. I'm sure, some government will toot their own horn about how they created the recovery. Of course once they see the problem...Expect all taxes to RISE DRAMATICLY whether you can pay for it or not. Forclosures, Houses confiscated for tax delinquency, Not being able to pay your electrical bills.....Well, a lot of boomers will die from exposure in the dark if their kids don't take them in.
It will be a good time to buy farms. OK. That's all the time I can spare. I'll let you figure out the rest of the implications.

Peak Prosperity, yes and no.

I always like to read C5s thoughts on this and that issue. They are always considered and well thought out, (even when I don't agree). So too with the subject of peak prosperity. As a global phenomenon I think the idea of peak prosperity holds water. For reasons noted in my response about our culpability for "other cultures" who have suffered as a result of our excess, so goes the argument for peak prosperity as far as the Western Nations are concerned. If Canada and other Western nations had closed societies which were not open to immigration, I think C5's scenario would be a slam dunk; easy to follow; game changer. Our countries are not, however, closed to new immigrants. One might argue that Canada had already peaked a decade or more ago given our penchant for negative population growth. (I personally wish the world would follow our example!) Yet because of the high standard of living that our citizens enjoy overall, Canada remains the envy of the world's population. In the short term anyway, Canada can offer the highly valued franchise of citizenship and make up for the tax payer shortfall predicted above. Our population will continue to grow. Demand for our real estate will continue to rise. And our schools will continue to be filled with fresh faces whose parents hope for them the same things for them as our parents did for us.

To my thinking, the real danger in the debate about peak prosperity is the idea that it is a bad thing! To be frank, the prosperity we enjoy is just not sustainable for the world. While we really do need to "average down", there is absolutely no appetite anywhere for such a condition. The worlds struggling societies covet the standards of living we have sold them on. We certainly don't want to live with less, and have sold the world on the myth that they too can all live the dream if they just work a little harder. It's just not true. I really don't have any answers either. I recognize the problem but it doesn't make me work less hard to "get ahead". I'm self employed, work hard, take risks, and reap the rewards if and when they come. I remember in the "Fringe" section some nonsense about a world order where evil gov't is conspiring to cull the human herd and move the remaining population into controlled areas. In truth - our population will cull itself like any closed population of flies in a milk bottle with finite food, air, and water. No conspiracy required. I really doubt that my generation or even the next few generations will actually have to pay the full cost for all of our excesses. I guess in some ways like climate change, we are beginning to pay now. At some point in the future though, our descendants will curse our bones.

Thanks, Antsy, for stroking my enormous ego. I'm glad you brought up the immigration point. I felt negligent during my day of shovelling dirt, for not bringing that up. Our only hope will be to throw the immigration door WIDE open. I think the politicians will go that route. That comes with its own problems. DO NOT MISSUNDERSTAND MY NEXT STATEMENT. I hope they don't. Im not anti immigrant. I just don't like the idea of us having to...I don't know, double or triple the population to cover the shortfall. (don't quote me on that. I don't know the numbers we would need. My brain tells me I am missing something) Then we will set ourselves up for the same problem later and be forced to grow exponentially.

Still, I'm also hoping we get some of Cuba's excess Doctors but we will have to change our regulations of not accepting others credential's. We might get saved by communism after all. 😯

One last thought. During economic crashes, the historic response from joe six pack is to blame the immigrants. That could go terribly wrong and swell white supremacy wankers military ranks. A certain ex Russian country comes to mind. So does our neighbour to the south.

Still, I'm also hoping we get some of Cuba's excess Doctors but we will have to change our regulations of not accepting others credential's. We might get saved by communism after all. 😯

Just a point of clarification as I lurk on this thread and follow along. 🙂

Canada has great programs across the board to certify many professions including drs, nurses, teachers, engineers, etc. and most governing colleges have all kinds of reciprocal agreements with other governing bodies around the globe. But...what seems to be unpopular is that Colleges of professionals will not drop their standards to encompass more drs, nurses, teachers, engineers, etc. that do not currently meet the stringent requirements. Its not politically correct but blindly accepting professionals from countries where education is lacking, or the standards are not equivalent to here or where they can not pass even the most basic professional standards exams is not the answer. Quality, not quantity. 😉 Same goes for red seal trades, etc. You need to meet the standards.

Canada, or the provincial governing bodies are not being exclusive to new professionals...heck the Ontario College of Teachers certifies thousands of new teachers and teachers from abroad annually while there is a glut in the market....but they will only give certification to those who meet the current criteria across the board. In one sentence: Whats good for the goose..is good for the gander. 🙂

Am I going to get jumped for being a Christian or can this thread get back to answering Zana’s query?
I also think that Peak Prosperity is a slow burning fuse, but a fuse non the less.
All the spatting back and fourth on the subject of religion brings fourth what I think is the most immediate threat. This isn't being posted because I'm a Christian, I don't think I'm a bigot and I have no plans to use YouTube bullets to win an argument. I've actually been to places where the SHTF and people are running for their lives from other people.
I also don't want to be labeled as a fear monger, even though it is exactly fear which brought us all to forums for preppers in the first place.
There is a fast growing movement across the fanatical front being voiced through the extremist Muslim jihad. History proves they are not the first to go about using violence and force to bring their beliefs to others, but this is now, not then. The world is a much smaller place now with the means of travel available and any and all measures of justice and security can and are being outsmarted.
A widespread and organized terrorist attack that causes a grid down, economic collapse, or pandemic situation is a higher threat. It could be single or multiple EMP or dirty bombs, conventional improvised explosives, poisoning of water supply or any combination of these. In this case I believe such events would be followed by the terrorists attacking with firearms and other explosives and it would be a time to be armed and willing to defend. An ambush is an ambush and I believe this to be the number one thing to be concerned about.
There are other situations that could cause the need for a bugout and I'll touch on those as well.
I am concerned about things such as meteor fallout be it a large rock or a continent or near planet wide meteor shower. In this case travel by road could become difficult and in fact vehicles and preps could be destroyed before we have a chance to use them.
EMP is something I have contingencies for and could be one of the most likely realities. An improvised explosive of great magnitude as mentioned or hijacked intercontinental ballistic missile detonated at the correct coordinates and altitude or a natural event from the sun could hit with enough damage to call for a SHTF scenario.
I do not feel a full economic collapse will happen suddenly. It could break down over a period of several months, but the only way it could happen overnight is by being triggered by a separate source of great magnitude.
I am not worried about being attacked by a foreign military as a surprise attack. I believe that if something escalated it would happen over enough of a period of time that we could make a move to an attempt at safety.
If the aliens invade I plan on saying the right thing at the Pearly Gates, because I’m thinking we’ll all be toast. But as much as I will welcome salvation when the time comes I don’t think an alien invasion is likely to disrupt the life and world I’m trying to enjoy today.
At this point there are four options for a place to go. North, South, East and West. Two are occupied but all are defensible and have water. There are no official agreements with the two occupied situations other than if SHTF and I can get there, we’ll all do what we can. I have many skills to offer and so do others so it’s a case of everyone pulling a fair share of the weight and helping others do the same. I have tactical and hand to hand training and am a qualified long range marksman, but I also have battlefield medic and full first aid training, have a degree in landscaping and can build a room square if needed. I can work with wood or metal, have a general understanding with electrical and am always willing to both learn and instruct.

My interpretation of what I prepare is in the Good Book the oldest book in the world the BIBLE tells you everything you need to prepare for what is going to happen in our last days

Hi, I'm brand spanking new to this site. Read your post, liked it. Just wanted to say Bless you brother. Feel free to contact me, i'm looking to connect with other like minds.

Charles,

Still, I'm also hoping we get some of Cuba's excess Doctors but we will have to change our regulations of not accepting others credential's. We might get saved by communism after all. 😯

Just a point of clarification as I lurk on this thread and follow along. 🙂

Canada has great programs across the board to certify many professions including drs, nurses, teachers, engineers, etc. and most governing colleges have all kinds of reciprocal agreements with other governing bodies around the globe. But...what seems to be unpopular is that Colleges of professionals will not drop their standards to encompass more drs, nurses, teachers, engineers, etc. that do not currently meet the stringent requirements. Its not politically correct but blindly accepting professionals from countries where education is lacking, or the standards are not equivalent to here or where they can not pass even the most basic professional standards exams is not the answer. Quality, not quantity. 😉 Same goes for red seal trades, etc. You need to meet the standards.

Canada, or the provincial governing bodies are not being exclusive to new professionals...heck the Ontario College of Teachers certifies thousands of new teachers and teachers from abroad annually while there is a glut in the market....but they will only give certification to those who meet the current criteria across the board. In one sentence: Whats good for the goose..is good for the gander. 🙂

A old post from you but I will add to it from what I know.....First you should be so lucky to be treated by a Cuban, FSU doctor, South African or other regardless of certification.. I have been treated by such here, and in their countries when I have travelled. Being qualified in this country may or may not mean jack shit. Often gualifications mean did you pay the course fee, or governing board. If you did, just put in your hours and your certified... I have been treated abroud where the individuals treating me were first rate, the hospital falling down, brown outs every day, the tap water needing boiling but the profieceinals first rate, and excellent care given.
I ripped the stitches out of a saw injury once , maybe 95 or so...I seen a doctor in the town I was in, He was foriegn, doesent matter from where, he imedietly booked me into the hospital for a amputation, I said thank you but I will take care of this myself and returned the next day to my doctor who just stitched me back up. He too was foreign. Needless to say I didn't need a amputation.. I care far more about the individual treating me, thier experience, than I do qualifications. Qualifications are often bought even in this country.

Well this is interesting.
http://mic.com/articles/85541/nasa-study-concludes-when-civilization-will-end-and-it-s-not-looking-good-for-us#.PxOtGhKy1

NASA Study Concludes When Civilization Will End, And It's Not Looking Good for Us
Tom McKay's avatar image By Tom McKay March 18, 2014 LIKE MIC ON FACEBOOK:
nasa, study, concludes, when, civilization, will, end,, and, it's, not, looking, good, for, us,
NASA Study Concludes When Civilization Will End, And It's Not Looking Good for Us Image Credit: AP
Update: NASA is now clarifying its role in this study. NASA officials released this statement on the study on March 20, which seeks to distance the agency from the paper: "A soon-to-be published research paper, 'Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies' by University of Maryland researchers Safa Motesharrei and Eugenia Kalnay, and University of Minnesota's Jorge Rivas, was not solicited, directed or reviewed by NASA. It is an independent study by the university researchers utilizing research tools developed for a separate NASA activity. As is the case with all independent research, the views and conclusions in the paper are those of the authors alone. NASA does not endorse the paper or its conclusions." Read the original story below.

...

Civilization was pretty great while it lasted, wasn't it? Too bad it's not going to for much longer. According to a new study sponsored by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, we only have a few decades left before everything we know and hold dear collapses.

The report, written by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center along with a team of natural and social scientists, explains that modern civilization is doomed. And there's not just one particular group to blame, but the entire fundamental structure and nature of our society.

Analyzing five risk factors for societal collapse (population, climate, water, agriculture and energy), the report says that the sudden downfall of complicated societal structures can follow when these factors converge to form two important criteria. Motesharrei's report says that all societal collapses over the past 5,000 years have involved both "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity" and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]." This "Elite" population restricts the flow of resources accessible to the "Masses", accumulating a surplus for themselves that is high enough to strain natural resources. Eventually this situation will inevitably result in the destruction of society.

Elite power, the report suggests, will buffer "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners," allowing the privileged to "continue 'business as usual' despite the impending catastrophe."

Science will surely save us, the nay-sayers may yell. But technology, argues Motesharrei, has only damned us further:

Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.

In other words, the benefits of technology are outweighed by how much the gains reinforce the existing, over-burdened system — making collapse even more likely.

The worst-case scenarios predicted by Motesharrei are pretty dire, involving sudden collapse due to famine or a drawn-out breakdown of society due to the over-consumption of natural resources. The best-case scenario involves recognition of the looming catastrophe by Elites and a more equitable restructuring of society, but who really believes that is going to happen? Here's what the study recommends in a nutshell:

The two key solutions are to reduce economic inequality so as to ensure fairer distribution of resources, and to dramatically reduce resource consumption by relying on less intensive renewable resources and reducing population growth.

These are great suggestions that will, unfortunately, almost certainly never be put into action, considering just how far down the wrong path our civilization has gone. As of last year, humans are using more resources than the Earth can replenish and the planet's distribution of resources among its terrestrial inhabitants is massively unequal. This is what happened to Rome and the Mayans, according to the report.

... historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases).

And that's not even counting the spectre of global climate change, which could be a looming "instant planetary emergency." According to Canadian Wildlife Service biologist Neil Dawe:

Economic growth is the biggest destroyer of the ecology. Those people who think you can have a growing economy and a healthy environment are wrong. If we don't reduce our numbers, nature will do it for us ... Everything is worse and we’re still doing the same things. Because ecosystems are so resilient, they don’t exact immediate punishment on the stupid.

In maybe the nicest way to say the end is nigh possible, Motesharrei's report concludes that "closely reflecting the reality of the world today ... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid."

Writes Nafeez Ahmed at The Guardian:

"Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more empirically-focused studies — by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance — have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative."

Well, at least zombies aren't real.

Update: NASA has issued a clarification about its role in the study, saying that while the study relies on NASA research tools developed for another project, it did not directly solicit, direct, or review Motesharrei's paper. "As is the case with all independent research, the views and conclusions in the paper are those of the authors alone. NASA does not endorse the paper or its conclusions."