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We Have So Little Time: Thoughts on the Economy

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(@chilcotin)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 117
Topic starter  

The signs of our doom are everywhere. China is in recession buying less of our raw materials, GM is laying off 2000 workers in the US, students are leaving college so heavily in debt they will have to work 30 years just to pay it off, but there are no jobs to pay the debt off with. The Euro is plunging, household debt is the highest even in Canada than it has ever been, oil is three times the price it was when we went into the last recession, spain, Italy and Portugal are in such dire straits that they could drag down the French, German, Swiss, Canadian and US banks who are heavily committed to each others bonds. Flaherty rightly pointed out recently that Canada has little exposure to Greek debt. But he failed to mention that we have massive exposure to French and German banks, and they are heavily exposed to Greece. In Canada the age of retirement for those under 50 is going to 67 yrs. and will be raised again to 70 as sure as the sun rises. Workers in their 50's who are relying on their company pensions are in some cases finding that their company only has to file chapter 11 bankruptcy to wipe out all pension obligations.

In my opinion the only finger in the dyke holding back a financial deluge is the White House using any means they can think of to hold things together until after the November election. Then watch out! As the present stimulus spending dries up up and more workers are laid off, as interest rates begin to move higher and those facing refinancing or loss of job cannot meet mortgage payments, banks will find themselves faced with massive credit card, mortgage, and student loan defaults. If China for any reason slows down its buying of US bonds (let's say US support for Taiwan as an example) then at the very least we will see the withdrawal of many social programs in the US and a halt put on infrastructure improvements. The US by the way is similarly in debt as Greece except that the US has more resources.

We can't say it enough. By the time you realize you have to make other plans it will be too late. The lucky ones will have been smart enough to establish a network. There are millions in Canada already in dire financial straits, and these are the good times. A trusted network of a few preppers is worth more than your weight in gold.



   
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(@aaronbouge)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 163
 

I agree completely. I dont really have anything to add, you said it. but Ive done my research as well, and I expect the US economy is gong to to collapse within two years. This will have a huge impact on Canada. Thats why we prep. Get your food now while a loaf of bread is still under ten dollars. And establish the network you speak of. Develop skill and "usefullness", Very important.



   
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(@hammer)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 112
 

Valid points. Some of the first things you'll need that you won't be able to afford will be grains, followed by antibiotics. A valid point was made on Doomsday Preppers that antibiotics can be obtained from fish stores, as the same ones are used for fish tank treatments.


Prepare for the worst
Hope for the best


   
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(@gmurphy)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 180
 

might as well make it three people that share the same view point!!! The magnitude of these events is down right mind blowing!!! while i wont try to predict an overunder on these events i will overstate the obvious by saying that the ripple affect while be felt worldwide, and in a big hurry!!! Hammer, i agree with you on your point about a few of the things a person won't be able to afford( grains ,antibiotics) aaronbouge spoke of develping skills and "usefullness, i agree 100%, i hope none of this happens, i hope i never meet any of you under the circumstances we are talking about, but it just might happen. And if it does..... could someone please lend me $15 so i can buy a loaf of bread???



   
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(@aaronbouge)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 163
 

I just want to add that "skills and usefullness" doesnt neccesarily mean the type of skilled trades you would normally put on your resume when applying for a job. Dont get me wrong, skilled trades are still good to have. But there are others. Like the ability to improvise can be considered a skill. In a world where certain items are hard to obtain, being able to obtain an item from a "piece of junk" that is able to do the same thing is very useful. Some people are just able to think outside the box. Im sure there are many other examples of these types of skills and would love to hear of some. What skills do you have that make you useful, but wont land you a job for having it on your resume?
But the point is in this type of world we cant judge people by a piece of paper any longer, but instead they shall be judged by what they can contribute.



   
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(@gmurphy)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 180
 

well i'll throw this out there, i dont have a skilled trade, i don't consider myself that good at any one thing. But i will say that i know a little bit about a bunch of stuff. For example, i used to be a wildland firefighter( i guess that was my "trade") and i was in the bush all the time. when i wasnt firefighting the company i worked for did brushing and spacing, pile burning,and general silviculture. My experince as a firefighter taught me alot of "bush skills" understanding weather patterns, learning the "lay of the land", general topography, how to read a map( my compass skills are kinda rusty i will admit) how to identify different types of trees and plants. this kind of stuff.
I have been in a few situations where i had to improvise on the spot, i have had to use my first aid training to help a serverly injuried person. I'm going to take up candle making in the near future, why?? why not?? i figure its another "feather in my cap" just another skill that may be of some help to a group of people should the time come.
anyways, just wanted to throw all that stuff out there, just seemed like the thing to do.



   
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(@chilcotin)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 117
Topic starter  

This Summer an 'Eerie Echo' of Pre-Lehman: Zoellick
Published: Thursday, 31 May 2012 | 9:14 PM ET

Read the following article this AM and thought I would pass it along.

The summer of 2012 is looking like an “eerie” echo of 2008 but euro zone sovereign debt has replaced mortgages as the risky asset class that markets are anxious about, said Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick

Banks are under stress and depositors have begun to “jog,” Zoellick wrote in an editorial in the Financial Times on Thursday.

“The European Central Bank, like the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2008, has sought to reassure markets by providing generous liquidity, but collateral quality is declining as the better pickings on bank balance sheets are used up,” he added.

To prevent investors from fleeing in panic, Europe must be ready with more than liquidity injections to contain the consequences of a possible Greek exit. “If Greece leaves the eurozone, the contagion is impossible to predict, just as Lehman (Brothers’ collapse) had unexpected consequences,” Zoellick said.

What is needed is a so-called “euro-sovereign” guarantee of bank deposits and other liabilities, as the guarantees of some national sovereigns are unlikely to be sufficient.

In the editorial, Zoellick argues Europe needs to deploy euro zone bonds, recapitalize banks by using funds from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and provide medium-term funding assurance to countries such as Spain.

The creation of euro zone bonds has been a controversial subject with France’s new President Francois Hollande calling for the currency bloc to issue common bonds and Germany rejecting such a move on the grounds it will weaken fiscal discipline.

But Zoellick argues time is running out and euro zone leaders “may be nearing a 'break the glass' moment: when one smashes the pane protecting the emergency fire alarm.”

If a crisis does occur, the European Central Bank may not have the ability to “respond fast, fully, and forcefully” because of differences on the bank’s board, Zoellick said.

“A Greek exit would trigger a hit to confidence in other sovereign euro assets. Euro zone leaders need to be ready. There will not be time for meetings of finance ministers to discuss the outlook and debate the politics of incrementalism. In panicked markets, investors flee to safe assets, sparking other flames.”

By CNBC's Jean Chua.



   
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(@pathfinder)
Active Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 6
 

Hi all,
My tittle would probably be a newbee or a wannabe prepper, well, I've actually been slowly but surely prepping for a while, I just was not fully aware of it, I merely followed my instincts. A few points I'd like to mention and see what you folks think. I live in lower mainland, Burnaby to be exact and I have two major concerns here. An earthquke and economic collapse/ riots. When you take a close look, we are surrounded by bridges and are effectively locked here from any meaningfull escape should the shtf. Looking at average daily traffic situation, I am convinced that in case of a quake, if only one of those bridges should be shut down( for whatever reason), the basic food supplies would run out in matter of very few weeks and that may be an optimistic assesment, never mind more than one closed. I almost exclusively don't count on our government to help us out, especially with the degree of ineptness and incompetence we have been seeing so I think we need to rely on ourselves. If we look only 1 year back what people were capable of over only stupid lost hockey cup, just imagine what they will do when they get hungry. Our hospitals are in a catastrofic overcrowded state under normal circuimstances, just imagine some major casulties.
As for an economic collapse, well, there are signs of it all over the place, most of the people are of course too busy to see it. I could only recommend to be very carefull what we invest our money into, keep a decent cash reserve and have alternative methods of payment. Also, when I look back, it appears to me most if not all the crashes happened in late summer or early fall. I'll definitelly be watching this September and around that time. I would be perhaps more concern of collapse in the states and an overspill into Canada than our own collapse although things here are not rosy either by any means.
I'm open to ideas and suggestions.



   
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(@aaronbouge)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 163
 

I just wanted to point out that on day 3 after hurricane katrina the raping and looting had begun. And this was in areas that were not flooded, but were out of power. The government of the U.S.A. is at least ten times larger then ours and for a couple months they had no control over. Vigilantes banded with neighbors to protect their stuff. 3 days is all we got before the SHTF and nobody is going to help us. I can only suggest to invest in a lot of canned and dried foods and bottled water that will last, and invest in a way to protect them. Cuz like you said, unless you have a boat, those bridges close up and you're stuck.



   
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(@someone)
Active Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 10
 

So okay, this is my 1st post here, new to this site as well. If I may, I'd like some input & advice on a few things to whomever is in the know & has a moment to offer me some.


I can think outside the box....and then outside the next.....can you??


   
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(@anonymous)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 11254
 

Perhaps the collapse of society is a but much for your husband to take in all at one gulp. Try smaller doses of things that have happened in the recent past (Katrina) (recession) and things that are happening currently (wildfires) (hurricanes) (finacial hardship and job loss). Take the view of cost saving if you have sufficent stores to only have to buy on sale. Puttting things into a practical sense instead of the theoretical may help. Do you camp? Try a weekend without power exercise and discuss the results after. Simple things but it may get the idea across in a small way.



   
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(@someone)
Active Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 10
 

Thanks, JustABear.

You're right.


I can think outside the box....and then outside the next.....can you??


   
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(@outandabout)
Trusted Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 68
 

I've been a long time listener to Radio Liberty with Dr. Stan Monteith. The programs are informative and rational, and cover a wide range of topics including the economy, political unrest, fluoridation, etc.

You can listen to archived shows in MP3 format at http://www.soundwaves2000.com/radio_liberty/

You may find something to spark an interest.


I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.


   
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(@anonymous)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 11254
 

@ someone... Good wishes re your hubby's employment. Hope it goes well. I am not aware of your living situation.. house, apt etc...but you could even camp in the backyard...LOL...live a little without a few of the modern conveniences for a day or so.



   
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(@someone)
Active Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 10
 

Thanks, OutAndAbout. I'll check it out. You never know I suppose....


I can think outside the box....and then outside the next.....can you??


   
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