Anyone watching the news last year realizes there were some poor crops. In Canada, we planted the smallest acreage of wheat on the prairies since 1970, of barley since 1965. Russia endured drought and wildfires, and Russia and the Ukraine banned exports to ensure a good domestic supply and to keep prices down.
Lately we've seen more bad news on the food front. first, this from Reuters (the link to the yahoo page no longer works):
MANILA/MILAN (Reuters) - World food prices hit a record in January and recent catastrophic weather around the globe could put yet more pressure on the cost of food, an issue that has already helped spark protests across the Middle East.
Up for the seventh month in a row, the closely watched Food and Agriculture Oganisation Food Price Index on Thursday touched its highest since records began in 1990, and topped the peak of 224.1 in June 2008, during the food crisis of 2007/08.
Australia's flooding and cyclone troubles hit the agricultural sector hard, with many crops damaged or destroyed.
Then you have this bit of news out of China:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110208/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_un_china_drought
The winter wheat crop there is at high risk, IMO. China has the cash to by internationally, and can buy massive volumes, driving up prices beyond the reach of other countries.
Then, Us corn reserves are at their lowest level in 15 years, and the price has doubled over the last six months from $3.50 to $7.00, nearing the all time high of $7.65. Forty percent of your supermarket products have corn products as part of them.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_crop_report
But wait, there is more:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110207/sc_afp/unfaofloodsfarmsafrica
South Africa is also seeing poor crop conditions, along with several other countries:
In Lesotho, one of the poorest countries in the sub-region, up to 60 percent of harvests have been lost in some areas and more than 4,700 head of livestock, mainly sheep and goats, are dead, the FAO reported.
Finally, an interesting news release (Feb 8) from Sysco, a major food distributor (that had released a report only the day before stating that their prices would likely rise due to increased raw materials costs) about how the freeze down Mexico way affected their supplies:
ALL OF OUR GROWERS HAVE INVOKED THE ACT OF GOD CLAUSE ON OUR CONTRACTS DUE TO THE FOLLOWING RELEASE. WE WILL BE CONTACTING YOU PERSONALLY TO REVIEW HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR CONTRACTED ITEMS WITH YOU GOING FORWARD.
THE DEVASTATING FREEZE IN MEXICO IS WORST FREEZE IN OVER 50 YEARS…
THE EXTREME FREEZING TEMPERATURES HIT A VERY BROAD SECTION OF MAJOR GROWING REGIONS IN MEXICO, FROM HERMOSILLO IN THE NORTH ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO LOS MOCHIS AND EVEN SOUTH OF CULIACAN. THE EARLY REPORTS ARE STILL COMING IN BUT MOST ARE SHOWING LOSSES OF CROPS IN THE RANGE OF 80 TO 100%.
EVEN SHADE HOUSE PRODUCT WAS HIT BY THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPS. IT WILL TAKE 7-10 DAYS TO HAVE A CLEARER PICTURE FROM GROWERS AND FIELD SUPERVISORS, BUT THESE GROWING REGIONS HAVEN’T HAD COLD LIKE THIS IN OVER A HALF CENTURY. THIS TIME OF YEAR, MEXICO SUPPLIES A SIGNIFICANT PERCENT OF NORTH AMERICA’S ROW CROP VEGETABLES SUCH AS: GREEN BEANS, EGGPLANT, CUCUMBERS, SQUASH, PEPPERS, ASPARAGUS, AND ROUND AND ROMA TOMATOES.
FLORIDA NORMALLY IS A MAJOR SUPPLIER FOR THESE ITEMS AS WELL BUT THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN STRUCK WITH SEVERE FREEZE DAMAGE IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY AND UP UNTIL NOW HAVE HAD TO PURCHASE PRODUCT OUT OF MEXICO TO FILL THEIR COMMITMENTS, THAT IS NO LONGER AND OPTION.
WITH THE SERIES OF WEATHER DISASTERS THAT HAS OCCURRED IN BOTH OF THESE MAJOR GROWING AREAS WE WILL EXPERIENCE IMMEDIATE VOLATILE PRICES, EXPECTED LIMITED AVAILABILITY, AND MEDIOCRE QUALITY AT BEST. THIS WILL NOT ONLY HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON SUPPLIES, BUT BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG BLOSSOM DROPS, THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT SUPPLIES 30 – 60 DAYS FROM NOW.
SOME GROWERS ARE MEETING WITH THEIR BOARDS RIGHT NOW TO DETERMINE WHETHER THEY SHOULD IMMEDIATELY RE-PLANT, HOPING FOR A HARVEST BY LATE-MARCH-TOEARLY-APRIL, OR WHETHER THEY SHOULD DISC THE FIELDS UNDER AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER SEASON.
Source: http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/11_Cosmic/110209.Sysco.Mexico.Freeze.pdf
Did you catch that? immediate price volatility, and uncertain supplies over the next 30 -60 days?
In North America, your typical family spends less than 20% of their income on food. I believe we're going to see that percentage rise sharply, but as painful as it might be for us, other countries may be far worse off, especially if we have many more weather related incidents. Remember that much of the current unrest in the middle East is partially related to food prices.
It's a situation worth watching.
A couple of things to add to the previous post:
Kraft foods warns of increased prices from them to preserve profitability.
and check this article on British food prices, complete with a loverly graphic of percentage increases in selected foods and commodities...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1355055/Food-prices-fastest-rise-5-years-blow-families.html
This is frightening news, although not a surprise. It makes me feel really antsy that I've begun stockpiling "too late." However, stockpiling at all will put me ahead of most other people in this situation. I'm sure I'm not the only person who has faced the futility to warn others about this type of thing. We'll see who the crazy person is when we aren't paying double for our food. 🙄
I think the real food price crisis will come in the late fall, after the local bounty is gone.
Never too late. I'm a big fan of a weekly amount set aside for food storage purchases. It's amazing how fast your food storage grows, even on a small amount like a dollar a day, if you stick to it.
That's exactly my plan. I also have a nice fat income tax return coming this year and will be spending a fair amount of it on preps. The rest will be cash in small denominations.
All day yesterday I was reading the "dumbed down for the masses" version of the information you shared. And still, the folks I work with were shakinng their heads and laughing at how the news people were blowing it all out of proportion. I guess some have to be hit over the head with actual hunger and empty shelves for this to mean anything to them aside from it all being a giant hoax to sell papers and get people watching the news. Sad.
All the weather changements are connected to humans or politicals crisis. Thanks for the infos, with this I got some arguments to make understand some people the gravity of the world situation and the concequence of the globalisation. The hardest part to all this is to make understand that to people you care of.
For the food I greatly suggest some lyophilised food, like camping food. But you have to diversify your stockpiles dry food, cans, camping, RMP if you can get some (military food good for 10 year). Some light stuff to get energy fast like energy gel or peanut butter for long tread. your can put some energy gels in your medical kit. Coffee is also a good thing to have.
Price is an obtacle to get all this so if you do stockplies with other people it will be easier. All this situation is very worrying...
All of this makes me wonder....how long do we have before the cost of groceries doubles? I know that my budget certainly can't afford that on a monthly basis. I have a strong feeling that any produce we have next winter is going to come from things we grow or buy locally and store. I was reading today about the wheat crisis that is upcoming as well - we have a serious shortage on our hands. Of course my sources are American - hopefully Canada will have things a little better with the wheat production in the Prairies. But produce - that is going to be totally out of reach for the average family come fall.
Well, as far as I remember, our weekly grocery bill (for three) was a bit over $50 five years ago and now we can't walk out of the grocery store without paying over $100 each week. It's getting really scary. We live in Calgary and we have snow on the ground 9 out of 12 months. Almost impossible to grow anything outdoor to supply ourselves year round. So I am doing a small bay window garden that hopefully will grow enough green (sunflower greens and herbs) and a bit of red (tomatoes and strawberries). We have a decent size food storage for most things but fresh produce is our biggest concern. If I can get this small garden going plus my usual sprouting we should be able to provide for ourselves.
Having just moved from one city to another in recent weeks, I was really worried of the rising food prices and what it might mean when I arrived at my new locale.
My previous employment included a grocery department and I watched fuel /shipping costs and food costs soar, of course leading to the business having to pass off some of these expenses to the consumer. Surprisingly, we did not crank the prices though, we as a business continued to absorb some of that cost - to increase the price on an item too dramatically meant you could alienate your customers in what is a very competitive market.
Increases sometimes have to happen slow and steady ... and media impacts this as well. Announcements of soaring coffee prices led to our shelves being picked clean of all caffeine within days of the coffee crop announcement as people wanted to stock up on the item at the current lower cost... A bad citrus crop in the media had the same results for orange juice and bottled lemon juice....
I felt like the gods had smiled on me when upon arriving at my new location, I realized that not only did I have a grocery store just 1 block away.... but it was a wholesaler who offers excellent discounts on large volume packages and multiple quantities. Surprisingly, I found most prices in this wholesaler to still be quite affordable in light of the recent year with it's rising fuel costs and crop disasters. While this venue does not necessarily have every single thing that I want, it is definitely the best for the bulk flour and rice, spices and other pantry basics that I am in the midst of planning and buying.
I haven't been on this forum for quite a while. We've moved temporarily, 3 months, to a very small town in Northern BC because of my husband's work. There are two small grocery stores here otherwise it's a 6 hour round-trip drive to a bigger town. The majority of the food I can buy here is at least 50-100% higher if not 200% on some items. A 10kg bag of flour is $24, sugar is the same, anything non-perishable is high while the meat and vegetables are more reasonable. I did the 6 hour trip to do a huge stock up for the six of us and I'm going to have to do one more trip out before we leave at the end of October, the prices are so much less that even the $120 in gas I spend it's still worth it. I'm missing all the seasonal fruit & vegetables for canning this year so 2012 means buying more store canned items. I usually buy a few hundred pounds of various fruits to put up so this is a huge chunk missing in our food stores at a much lower price than store bought. Once we get home again I'm going to have to get really serious about stocking up again and I'm really hoping to find some good deals but that's getting harder all the time.
I have a friend living in Kentucky, who said her food cost has doubled this summer. I would say even to buy your garden seed this year for next and start learning how to save your seeds, to grow a garden and keep the food cost down. Make sure the seeds are non-hybrid and non GMO
Hi, Beth...I'm in Kentucky---yep---costs have doubled here on lots of things, or they give you less for more money.
I and dh can't grow anything on this rock garden they call a yard---so our alternative is lots of rice and staples and canned goods.
I'm praying the man across the highway with the nursery will barter with me for some things I have next year---if we even make it till next year...because we will need garden vegetables and I tried sprouting. It was okay but the seeds are soooooo expensive because you need so many.
He may need some bandaids, or coffee...The off brand here was $6 for 30 oz and I bought 6 cans---it's not that price now.
Here, I have the advantage of discount stores--Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Aldi's, and SaveALot stores. Thank God.
Walmart(chinamart) here is not the best buy and every day more and more consumers are finding out.
Like Piggly-Wiggly had mayo for .99 cents--I bought a case of 12. It doesn't go bad.
JayJay, have you considered raised beds for growing? Maybe you could even get some cheap compost or soil from that nursery by bartering or something.
This is for all you people who want gardens ,but don't live in a good growing place, like Calgary, were I live in the 1980. and live in yoho national park b.C, now try growing something there. middle of summer you can have a snow storm, or the deer and elk step through and eat every thing. Here is a great and cheep way to grow a lot of food in a small space. My friend made a smaller version with pvc pipes.
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/Growdome/Growdome09.htm
Like Piggly-Wiggly had mayo for .99 cents--I bought a case of 12. It doesn't go bad.
This comment concerned me a lot. Please please please be very careful with the mayo you bought. Mayo DOES go bad. Even if the jar's never been opened, like any other canned food, there can be problems with it beyond the expiry date. I'm the first to admit that expiry dates are generally conservative on canned and jarred goods, for the excellent reason that if they cut them too close, manufacturers would lose too many customers to botulism.
Mayonnaise isn't much more than eggs and oil. If the jar is past its expiry when you open it, please treat it with extreme caution. Food poisoning is one of the lousier ways to die.
Aphrael
Oh sweetheart, I don't have to run faster than the bear...