Its been a few months since I did the post about a Slow Crash as opposed to a fast crash. http://internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=2622 . It became a popular post with over 1300 views...but no one was able to answer the the questions I put forth. 1- What will a Slow Crash look like as opposed to a fast crash and 2- What is a good prepping strategy for this. Perhaps the concept was too esoteric for most but I think enough time has gone by for every one to think about the idea some more...Thus I am bringing the subject back up again. I think we deserve another shot at this subject.
If the concept is new to you, These were Ran Priers thoughts. "It won't be like falling off a cliff, more like rolling down a rocky hill. There won't be any clear before, during, or after. Most people living during the decline and fall of Rome didn't even know it". " The first lie is the assumption that breakdowns will be sudden and permanent. More likely it will go like this: As energy gets more expensive and the electrical infrastructure decays, blackouts will be more frequent and last longer, but power will come back on. By the time the big grids go down permanently, the little grids, patched together from local sources, will be ready to take their place. They will be weaker, less reliable, and more expensive, and they won't cover the slums".
Regional collapses and partial recoveries adnauseum.
A few weeks ago the MrsC5 looked at me and said, "I don't think the economy is going to crash suddenly anymore. I think we have moved past that point. I think we are right back to it being the same slow decline of the Empire". I stopped for a second and had to admit to myself that I had come to the same conclusion, That the powers that be were just going to drag this out for ever. Shit was going to keep hitting the fan...but probably not at the pace or permanence or panic that we are prepared for. This was probably going to be a long ride down...and it will be Anti Climactic.
LOL. IE, More like Drunken Sex that just goes on for ever...and you're having trouble keeping it up...but you will just not be able to rest till the climax happens so you keep at it...wile wondering if the best answer to this frustration is to fake an orgasm. It ends with a petering out and not a bang.......... 😡 😳 😥 ....and you wake up with a hangover, still unsatisfied.
I saw the movie LOOPERS a wile ago. It was OK but certainly not life changing. What stuck with me (forgetting the whole Time Travel thing) was that the future world setting was really well thought out and a good picture of a Slow Crash world. Someone behind the scene was thinking. The society wasn't gone. It was just really poor except for the few that maintained power. The Gangs were pretty much the defacto runners of local governance as long as they didn't break certain rules to make what was left of the Government come down on them. They wore there uniforms and carried the guns of their power openly and when they started shooting, you were just expected to get out of the way.Vast Hoards of average people were now homeless and living on the edges of the city(Lets say 1 quarter of the population). They wander every where looking for help...which lead to a near shooting when one of the farmers confronts a sound in the corn field and almost fires. It Turns out to be a deaf, retarded young adult carrying a sign asking for help. Those that live in run down Condos just dont go outside. My wake up to watch alittle closer came when watching these parked cars with solar panels attached to them. My thought was, why does every future movie think you can run a car on solar. Unrealistic....until I looked alittle closer. These were Priuses and the like...old and beat to shit. occasionally panels were missing frome accidents with no way to repair them. They were parked next to big american cars...that were up in blocks and gutted for their recyclables. The cars covered with solar panels clearly couldn't be run every day...but you might be able to use them occasionally, every week or two for real short trips or emergencies. Nuclear terrorism had happened in a few spots in the world but it was regional and life went on. Delivery trucks were new but tiny and as light as possible, using rubber tarps for the walls instead of metal. They clearly didn't go very fast. Those with money, connected to the Gangs partied most of the money away in posh locals and clubs...wile dealing with despair, male machismo and depression. So...In spite of the sci fi part, it was a good characture of many of the ways I see a post collapse or slow collapse future.
OK. Now I want your input. What will a Slow Crash look like. What are good practical ways to prepare for this outcome. I just dont know. Im drawing a blank on this one. There are alot of minor genius folks on this site and I would really like it if you put your brains into this one. We are exploring new ground here
I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.
As I gaze into my crystal ball, this is what I see:
We should all be signing up for Mandarin and other Chinese languages fast.
Think of money or "value" the same as energy. There's only so much of it to go around. It can change form (trade and barter to gold and cash), but there is a delicate balance of have and have nots. There are many who think of finances as going through cycles but always increasing. I personally think that when you spread the money so thin (ie. print so much of the stuff), the actual value "thins" out and eventually something else will be seen as more valuable and take it's place. I think some people have more of it than others (duh!) but there's only so much to go around. Have you noticed while the rich get richer, the poor increase in numbers and the one time middle class is getting stressed and thinned out in numbers?
So what do I think is the new "value" after cash. I think it's already happening and China is at the forefront - Natural Resources. There is only a fininte amount of fresh drinking water and there are still discussions about it's diversion to other countries (either in the form of bottled water, or actual diversion of waterways). Although the XL Keystone pipeline is in the news, the Chinese are pushing for the Alberta to BC pipeline quietly but with more dollars behind it because they want our fuels. Look at lumber - how much of it leaves Canada for other places. Already the Chinese have become the kings of reverse-engineering something and they are digging deep in both intelligence (spying) and technologies. I have no doubt China will come forward as the new super power of the world.
What does that mean for the rest of us? I'm not sure. Certainly there is a tipping point where people will revolt. Look at the student protests in Montreal over increased education fees. Look at Greece and the protests there. I think there is much more of that in our futures. I think food riots are coming - both due to cost of food and the availability we've all been trained to expect. (and by "we" I am refering to mainstream society).
How should you prep for this? I think most people here are further ahead than I and are more knowledgeable than I, but here's what I would add. Get your finances in order - bring down your debt level to zero and do everything you can to make yourself self-sustainable. Have stores of food, water and equipment, especially if you live in proximity to larger cities which are the most likely starting points for riots.
Who knows? Mankind may surprise us in a positive way and none of this will come to pass.
If life hands you lemons, be sure you have a battery backed up juicer to make some good ol' fashioned lemonade! 😉
Good and well thought out answer, Hgal. Learning Cantonese has always been on my goal list that I keep putting off. Dept is always the big one and a path to slavery. I am very fortunate to have none and we could keep going with an abrupt and permanent job loss...though it wouldnt be pretty(if all else fails...lower your standards). Most arent so lucky.
If we can keep up that level of posting this line should keep rolling. Keep em comming. This is a brainstorming post
I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.
Personally I think the Slow Crash started quite a long time ago - say around the start of the 90's. Since then, there have been 'bumps' and 'slips', such as the stock market crashes and the various bubbles which have burst, and are still bursting. Now Cyprus, showing that the banks consider your money to be their money, accessible on demand. Currencies are being degraded and devalued. China needs to expand it's size - they still have FAR too many people for their country's 'Liebensraum', and their resources are depleted, so that means invasion, either peacefully (buying land) or not peacefully (invasion of neighbouring countries to 'pacify' or 'help'). Look at Tibet. China doesn't consider their people to be valuable, and the authorities are complacent if they lose a few millions to starvation, choking air or disease, as long as the Party is maintained, fed and protected.
Prepping for this means living in a country which is sparcely populated (i.e. Canada, Australia or NZ), not one of the 'major players' (keeping their heads below the parapet, and not making a target of themselves), and getting enough land to grow your own, with a goal of self-sufficiency. Get gold / silver for the inevitable collapse of the paper / electronic currencies. Stock trade goods. Make sure you have enough 'spares' for when equipment breaks. Maintain contact with 'like-minded' people who are willing to accept responsibility for their own actions, and work for what they want, rather than expecting 'de gubbermint' to do it all for them. In fact, avoid those scroungers like the plague and be prepared to shoot when they try to steal what you have, because make no mistake - THEY will kill YOU at the drop of a hat if you have something they want.
I always thought I might wake up one morning to find that markets around the world had shut down, banks were closed etc and that DH could sleep in because there was no point going to work...I think this slow death is perhaps a lot more painful.
If the economy shuts down quickly then everybody is pretty much in the same position at being at the bottom there is only one way to go then and that's up, but this slow death is taking out those in a weaker position whilst everybody else stares at them with apathetic eyes not realizing their position is getting weaker too and that their time too shall come.
Even if you have 6 or 12 months worth of stored food on hand you may need to use it before the economy has reached the bottom and be just as desperate as those that haven't prepared.
I am wondering though if the slow death will eventually pick up speed and hurl us over a cliff anyway, are we just tumbling down a hill toward a cliff?
This is like watching someone dying slowly from cancer rather than suddenly dropping dead from a heart attack.
I worry about the need to use food and other stores way before I expect too and not having the funds to replace them whilst they still can be.
At what point in a slow death is the guillotine employed on the bankers?
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing a song of angry men?
It is the music of a people
Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes!
It keeps ticking: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Slowly but it is still ticking. Like a leaf falling to the ground it has an air of inevitability about it.
It keeps ticking: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Slowly but it is still ticking. Like a leaf falling to the ground it has an air of inevitability about it.
93 trillion in assets, 123 trillion owed.... "USA Inc" is bankrupt.
Glad I don't live there - when it finally crashes, the death throes are going to cause a LOT of damage.
Still, maybe it's time. The USA seems to have lost its way. What used to be a world leader in all ways is now a land of lost opportunity. They had the technology. They could have colonised space, brought back asteroids to mine in NEO, set up power satellites in orbit, beaming power down to the surface, eliminating the need to use our precious fossile fuels. It could have been raining soup. They were heroes. Pioneers. They could have gone SO far. Instead they turned into the 'Gimme!' society, and rotted from the inside. With very few exceptions, their polititians are corrupt self-serving parasites. "American justice" is an oxymoron, with bent lawyers making 'deals' to get their criminal clients off. "But your Honour, the police officer had no right to search my client's car, so the dead body he found in the boot is inadmissable in evidence!"
What a waste. 🙁
Oh f**** me gently. I just spent an hour and a half on a reply covering the roll of gardens in the old USSR, Cuba and Detroit...and was timed out before I could submit and lost it all. I could scream at the moment. Well maby I will try again tommorrow and just go back to sleep 😡 I actually got out of bed for this.....ARGGGGGGGGGGGG
I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.
I feel your pain! I hate losing work like that. This is one of the reasons why I have backups of my backups. Once I lost an entire hard disk, with NO backup....
Once. Only once!! 😡
Yesterday I did my fortnightly backup to external hard drive, (which is separate to my 'spare internal disk drive' backup) and put it back in the fireproof safe. I also have a copy of 'absolutely cannot lose' data on my works laptop.
Just in case. 😆 💡
Just watched this youtube video and can't help but wonder if America isn't WAY overdue for a financial crash 😆 ...perhaps it would bring peoples priorities back to reality.
Heck you'd never see this extreme in Target, Kmart or even Best & Less in Australia
There is something going horrible wrong with people!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ghrDIQ-K8mg
Oh f**** me gently. I just spent an hour and a half on a reply covering the roll of gardens in the old USSR, Cuba and Detroit...and was timed out before I could submit and lost it all. I could scream at the moment. Well maby I will try again tommorrow and just go back to sleep 😡 I actually got out of bed for this.....ARGGGGGGGGGGGG
That happens a lot, there is nothing more frustrating. It is most likely due to the software the site uses or server settings and it seems to be related to time not length. I NEVER make long posts in the "POSTREPLY" box. If you want to make a longer post or take your time doing it open your word processor and create your post there. Once complete copy it (just right click you mouse and select copy) then open the "POSTREPLY" and paste your work (right click you mouse and select paste). This way you can avoid the frustration plus but you will have a copy to save on your computer.
(By the way I made a slight edit to your post. 😉 )
I feel your pain! I hate losing work like that. This is one of the reasons why I have backups of my backups. Once I lost an entire hard disk, with NO backup....
Once. Only once!! 😡
Yesterday I did my fortnightly backup to external hard drive, (which is separate to my 'spare internal disk drive' backup) and put it back in the fireproof safe. I also have a copy of 'absolutely cannot lose' data on my works laptop.
Just in case. 😆 💡
You are one of a minority of the wisest people on the planet! 🙂 Everyone knows that they should do it but they don't. For anyone who has ever had to use a backup they know that they should have at least one backup of the backup. The key is redundant systems. Then keep the backups in a kid proof, fireproof, waterproof, and EMP proof location.
I
If the economy shuts down quickly then everybody is pretty much in the same position at being at the bottom there is only one way to go then and that's up, but this slow death is taking out those in a weaker position whilst everybody else stares at them with apathetic eyes not realizing their position is getting weaker too and that their time too shall come.
Even if you have 6 or 12 months worth of stored food on hand you may need to use it before the economy has reached the bottom and be just as desperate as those that haven't prepared.
This is like watching someone dying slowly from cancer rather than suddenly dropping dead from a heart attack.
I worry about the need to use food and other stores way before I expect too and not having the funds to replace them whilst they still can be.
OK. Lest see if I can remember half of what I wrote last night. Yes, I already see people having to use their food storage. Its a very short ride to becoming one of the "Givemes". I went through mine in 2008-9 having been hit with a double wammy, eventually losing it all. In the end, Once EI was finished and I was living on the credit cards, I was once again facing homelessness and preparing for my death. I had a last minit save...and will never allow that to happen to me again. There is no Us and Them to me. I have much bigger stores now, cheap but paid for land...and a big assed garden.
Now, I am noticing we are slipping back into Eventual Crash or Destination thinking. Im not discounting this as a possibility but I just want to steer this post back to us thinking about a No Before, During or After type of scenario.
I think the answer to Cares very real concern is exactly why I push gardening so much and has in some ways answered part of my own question.
Back, durring the collapse of the soviet union, mass starvation was averted because the people were already used to the corruption and food shortages. Small gardens were already a mainstay for the people. They had already built a level of resilientcy and public housing ment they did not have to face homelesness as many of us will have to face. They road through it all with few deaths. Most from alcohol and depression. As a counter balence, in Cuba during the blockade when the people were facing the real threat of starvation, The State told the people that they could dig up, break up or cover with dirt any public space they could find. Mass starvation was averted. Today in Detroit, people are taking over abandoned houses to start farms, risking the athorities comming after them...and suddenly finding themselves to be considered public community leaders as an unintended consiquence. Some truck produce into the city for sale on Bikes and trailors. Others have perchased tractors and boy, does it ever look funny seeing a tractor loading compost in a suberban street. I saw something similar In Cuba where people were driving these Road Warrior, ancient, welded up tractors into town like the family car...or more like a bus because people would pile in to a trailer on the back. Its on my list to put a ball hitch on to the back of my own very old tractor for the same reason...and chains...because it might be the only vehical that can face un plowed roads in winter or flooded and bogg covered road ways as services degrade.
So back to food stores. We really should be using our food stores already so as to rotate them. Store what you use, Use what you store, Use it or lose it. If only to know what you are actually willing to eat.
And Gardens...I dont have a gardening past, its not fun to me and I sort of suck at it and it hasnt turned my place into some hippy paradice...but Im doing it anyways because I see its importance.
I think Ive answered part of my question. Begin to live now as if the collapse has already happened...because it probably has. If your prepper system cant sustain you now...It probably wont sustain you then...or mid way through...or 6 moths from now.
OK. Lets save this, this time before posting
I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.
HAHAHAHA. I see my Barbarian Biker mouth has gotten me in trouble....again. It just doesnt have the honesty, social class identification, or visceral, dramatic impact without it. Ill try to self edit.....HAHAHAHA
I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.
HAHAHAHA. I see my Barbarian Biker mouth has gotten me in trouble....again. It just doesnt have the honesty, social class identification, or visceral, dramatic impact without it. Ill try to self edit.....HAHAHAHA
Made me chuckle when I read it (F... me gently, that is.) It's an expression I used quite a lot when I was a teenager. (I think sometimes it was a genuine request - depends on who I said it to! 😆 )
With all due respect to the mods, while I'd not like to see this site degenerate to the language we see on Zerohedge, where there's way too much swearing, can we not be too 'precious' about the more colourful expressions of surprise or dismay? I find it a genuine, and quite natural, response to having an hour and a half's work go down the drain.