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The Slow Crash- TEOTWAWKI in Moderation

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cernunnos5
(@cernunnos5)
Noble Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 1230
Topic starter  

"Imagine the end of the world in moderation. It's hard"

Thus starts the 2005 article By Ran Prieur called The Slow Crash. http://www.ranprieur.com/essays/slowcrash.html

" the end of cheap energy, the decline of industrial agriculture, currency collapse, economic "depression," wars, famines, disease epidemics, infrastructure failures, and extreme unpredictable weather.
If that's all we get, the crash will be slower and more complex than the kind of people who predict crashes like to predict. It won't be like falling off a cliff, more like rolling down a rocky hill. There won't be any clear before, during, or after. Most people living during the decline and fall of Rome didn't even know it."

It would be one of the three most influential articles that have modified my prepping. The three articles I usually make mandatory reading to anyone that chooses to hang with me. By the way, The other two are... http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf1.html and... http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/a-survival-q-a-living-through-shtf-in-the-middle-of-a-war-zone_10252011 Save these to read latter as they are several pages long. Lets stick with The Slow Crash. You may notice that they clash and contadict each other. Thats a good thing. Nothing is gospel. Never trust anyone that tells you what you want to hear. That person is either a cop or a con man.

Though not a spectacular essay, I think it was just Hearing the title " THE SLOW CRASH" that triggered something in the lizard part of the brain. The "Ah Ha" moment. The part that says, "This is what I have really been seeing since child hood. This is what I am watching happen and this is more of what I should expect to see more of as things get worse." A Red Pill moment. I suppose its also why I can say, "I don't feel comfortable with the majority of Prepper THEORY and the fairy tales that political and religious idealogs have spun like snake oil salesmen to Steal the prepper movement for themselves. All of the Cold War ara survival advice and Backwoods Boyscout Batmen, doesn't really apply anymore. In fact, It might be the complete opposite and guarantee to destroy your life."
Though the slow crash may seem less dramatic, Its effects are far more devastating. More, regional collapses and partial racoveries, ad nauseum. Less a mass die off. More, the little die offs don't really affect the locus swarm that strip everything.
With this, ALL prepping theory needs to be re evaluated. Yes, Argentina and Russia collapsed. They also REMANE. When the US "Collapses" I suspect it will also remane...inspite of local Bosnia like events or regional right wing Ruwandas. You will still have to go to your job in the morning. Now more than ever...for a tenth of the wage or less. You still go to jail if you shoot someone. The jails are just alot worse and your family may have to pay for your food wile there. If this is so, perhaps we need change the idea of preparing for COLLAPSE and start the more difficult process of preparing for DECLINE!

The truth is...I don't really have a fucking clue what that really looks like. The best I am coming up with is almost Permaculture solutions. Direct action Sustainability and localised...hum...Everything. But far less Hippified and almost Medieval in nature and group....and siege survivability. That's the best I can think up and its woefully inadequate. I've been preparing for Collapse for 35 years since I was 10 and realised the numbers were unsustainable. I'm not sure what preparing for Decline looks like. What bases have I been missing. Its like starting all of my preps from the ground up. Im thinking some of you will scratch your head and go "Hum" instead of going" Eh?!" Thus I bring this for your thought and consideration and hopefully some constructive advice.


I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.


   
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(@littlebrownjug)
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Joined: 14 years ago
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Decolonialisation and economic shift are as real as you and I typing on this web. The mere fact that there is a portal about disaster in any form should be an indication of what is happening in society. Would you believe that as we speak the US government is actually preparing for an econmic descaling. To tell someone that life as you know it may not be as you remember in ten years or less would cause catastrophic results. The president himself is trying to bring America to a Canadian Idea of Socialism because he knows that big business will not be able to sustain the Country as it once did, not to mention the lack of interest in renueable resources. Lack of interest and lack of education in America is its greatest enemy as young people seek to become wealthy in any way they are not dealing with issues related to Global events, we've actually gone back thirty or fourty years in Government policies and political strife as we watch Arab Nations annialating themselves to become a United Brotherhood. Isreals chances of becoming a target yet again are surmounting and it won't be long until we are all dragged into this chaos leaving North America broke while oil Nations become grossly wealthy. Our survival and strength depends on our ability and sustainability through our natural rsources and renueable resources. Prepping and becoming a self reliant community with a strong microeconomy is Canada and other North American states is our only real chance at survivng these times. I do not believe we have seen the end of the bubble.



   
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(@anonymous)
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Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 11254
 

.



   
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cernunnos5
(@cernunnos5)
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Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 1230
Topic starter  

Just a heads up incase it was missed. This was writen in 2005...not 2008. Chew over the implications if you are a blame game, politico prepper and late to the party.


I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.


   
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(@littlebrownjug)
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Joined: 14 years ago
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What? Is there a difference? Ten years, twenty years? Whats the price of apples have to do with the state of the Union? You left a topic in an open manner for discussion but I see what the problem is. WOW! I'm gone from this pile of shite!



   
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cernunnos5
(@cernunnos5)
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Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 1230
Topic starter  

Seriously? WTF. Werent you recently given a time out for this behavior.
My point is, many preppers get distracted from actual prepping over 2008 and whoever is the most convienient and conspiritorial scapegoat happens to be. This is focusing on and blaming the symptoms instead of treating the disease. Instead of blaming someone about high food prices crippling your new truck payments, Move out of the McMansion and start growing a garden. The point is, The same problems were already in play in 2005. Just like they were already in play in the late 80s when I first realised the retiring baby boomers would bankrupt and enslave the younger generation after comsuming all best resources. Like they were already in play in the early 80s when I came to understand the where fiat currency would lead to. Like they were in play in the 70s when I first understood what the exponential function was and what it ment to population, polution, debt, over consumption, war, and every increasing unsustainable system. It was already in play and an unstoppable forgon conclusion long before I was around to notice. I have no idea why this is not obvious to people.
The open part I am asking people about is
1- what will a slow crash look like in contrast to an instant crash if its just mini collapses and partial recoveries if this drags out for another 60 years;
2- What is an effective pattern to follow if it goes in this direction.


I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.


   
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(@reluctantprepper)
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Joined: 13 years ago
Posts: 50
 

The idea of a slow crash is not very sexy. I can see most preppers, myself included missing the grand "I told you so" moment. No vindication in taking a decade to rip off a band-aid. No Hollywood moment of bugging out with the clothes on your back and dodging marauders in the streets. Just property disputes with neighbors and haggling over debt with the bank. Most preppers don't imagine siting on the porch in a rocking chair talking to the grandkids, who are probably illiterate and have rotten teeth, about the old days of technology and how they knew in 2012 that the end was near.


“Before everything else, getting ready is the secret of success.” -- Henry Ford


   
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(@rabbitteeth)
Estimable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 112
 

cernunnos5 has a point. All it takes is a brief (or extensive) history lesson to look at every single society that has collapsed. It isn't instantaneous. Talk to any immigrant in Canada who came from a war-torn strife-ridden country - some of them had years to plan their immigration. Furthermore, a 'collapse' like the end of civilization depicted in any hollywood movie is but a figment of imagination. Rome didn't fall in a day, the Soviets didn't collapse in an afternoon, the Mayans weren't wiped out over the weekend, the great British Empire has fallen to a fraction of their former glory but you don't see them resorting to cannibalism anytime soon, and so on and so forth.

Some of us expect that society will collapse, we'll rush into our bug-in/out locations, ride it out, and emerge into a new world. Heck, I'll bet some of you even look forward to it. But... that's not how it'll be. In any case, that's still what we prep for. 🙂

As for his Appendix 1 regarding Easter Island, I'd argue that it is a microcosm of the world at large. Resources being stripped away at ever increasing, unsustainable rates, combined with ever-growing populations... it's simply bound to happen. It may not happen in a day, but it will happen. Remember, war is rarely ever ideological or religious at its core... war has always been, and always will be, about resources. This is true for whether it is a dictator clinging to power, Taliban with their poppy/opium, oil, land, airspace, or Jews having "too much". In a sense, war is an equalizer that brings populations down to a more sustainable level, whether we find it revolting or not. Too many fish, not enough pond. It'll happen eventually once resources get stretched thinner and thinner. The folks on Easter Island didn't see it coming, either.



   
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(@littlebrownjug)
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Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 52
 

My friend...your the one who should be timed out. Permanently!



   
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(@anonymous)
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Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 11254
 

My friend...your the one who should be timed out. Permanently!

CLEARLY over the line.. any line. And people wonder why we have a collective element of paranoia. NUTJOB!!!!!!!



   
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(@reluctantprepper)
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Joined: 13 years ago
Posts: 50
 

The topic slow crash seems to be volatile. A Google search of "slow crash plan" only brings up one relevant hit. Which is a peak oil forum. In which the discussion of a fast crash is only to the benefit of nut case survivalist who are counting the days until a lawless society means they can clean out all the "welfare mooches" who are trying to steal their stuff. I venture to say that someone who would want someone else "timed out permanently" falls into that class. I would also say that a prepper who is prepared for a slow crash would make out better than the doomsday zombie hunters. I think what cer5 is trying to say and asking is a valid question. And if you can't ask thought provoking questions which may give a person some life or death ideas to deal with any scenario. Then what's the point of a forum?


“Before everything else, getting ready is the secret of success.” -- Henry Ford


   
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cernunnos5
(@cernunnos5)
Noble Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 1230
Topic starter  

Thanks guys. Im not pushing an exotic theory. Im personaly concerned. If its a fast crash, Im in a pretty good position and will probably do OK. So will those around me....exept for fallout from abandoned reactors. Im having a bit of trouble figuring that one out. Its the slow crash that is making me feel alittle uncomfortable. I dont know what to expect if that happens so I dont know what to preppare for. Niebour disputes will definitly be more likely here than in BC. I cant see the banks giving up their right to collect depts. Even if they sell those depts to others like pimps selling prostitute. With less government constraint, they may employ mercinaries backing collectors. I suspect some of my coolest of cool gear will never see use....or it will be in the closet when I suddenly need it because wearing it would have me talking to someone in a padded room, probably in restraints with a bit of drool on my cheak.


I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.


   
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(@rabbitteeth)
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Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 112
 

Basically, fast crash = too many hollywood movies, not enough experience in dealing with the real world, or having any knowledge of foreign affairs, be it historical or current.

Psychologically, the sudden doomsday apocalypse is so popular because people want freedom to do as they like. Some people get off to the idea of roaming around neighbourhoods unchallenged, walking into any home they pleased, and foraging for stuff without the rule of law. To tell them otherwise is like telling them that there's no Santa Claus.

We still prep for it. We're ready for anything. 🙂 But as cer5 has noted, a slow crash is also a possibility. All the guns/ammo/food in the world won't save you if society is simply getting poorer and the banks are foreclosing on your house while you don't have a job. This is something to prepare for, too.



   
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cernunnos5
(@cernunnos5)
Noble Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 1230
Topic starter  

Thanks RT. One thing Prier missed was that about cannibalism in Russia during the 20s. I remembered reading this a few years ago. http://suite101.com/article/cannibalism_in_the_soviet_union-a34252 . There were also reports about it in china during the revolution but there is little evidence and its hard to tell if the info came from anti communist propaganda. Knowing Chinese reverence for dead bodies...its hard to say...or what to say. It may be more cultual. The Eithiopians didnt during the famin but it was probably religious food restrictions. If you are going to die, you dont want to die unclean. I can definatly see americans eating each other. Upper class training and all. LOL


I have a Tactical Harness and I have a Tool Belt. The Tool Belt is more Useful.


   
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(@littlebrownjug)
Trusted Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 52
 

Good Bye! Just a Blob you don't have what it takes man but I caught your stupid little game. I feel sorry for you white trash types> I really do! See ya.



   
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