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Historical and Scientific Potential disaster.

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(@mokonotora)
Trusted Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 61
Topic starter  

Real simply;
We are entering a period of time when the sun's poles flip. This happens during the solar flare maximum, and as one can imagine the poles flipping on a star emit large amounts of energy. This energy causes a CME or Coronal Mass Ejection. (Mass Ejection from a star, think about that.) This stuff hits the Earth, basic physics. Historicaly, this sort of stuff goes back to 1859, Carrington Event, and May 1921 and other dates. Each time these CMEs hit the planet the energy moves along the power lines to their terminals, transformers. Modern day power lines are EHV (Extra High voltage) and can handle large amounts of energy. This then hits the transformer which is not designed to handle this burst and blows up or burn or both. [/url] http://whentechfails.com/node/1545 [/url] This is a simplified article on the events. It is not too technical.
Nor is it good news. I will not speculate on the timing of a massive CME but it will make history. It will blow out the grid. Done. Baked. To recreate the grid means we order the custom built transformers from factories which run on electricy. Wait time is about three years right now. Connect the dots.



   
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(@aphrael)
Trusted Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 99
 

I'm sorry, but I gotta cry foul on his assumptions.

I can't speak for how long nuclear power plants can carry on emergency situations without external power, but I can speak for the situation involving the power grid, and can't concieve of something that would manage to take out most of the power transformers on the grid in a single fell swoop.

Conductors (High voltage wires) are sized for the load they are intended to carry. If a surge drove the voltage to high, there would be structural failures in the wire.

Protection and metering are a major function of any and all electrical utilities. The load (electricity in general) is constantly monitored for surges, overvoltage, undervoltage, current differential, power direction... I realize the specifics may not be very useful, but there are hundreds of relays that are constantly testing for anything that is not the norm, and not all of these relays are electronic or computer based in nature. There are types that are mechanical, and an electromagnetic surge wouldn't interfere with their ability to function.

Indeed, if by some fluke something did manage to destroy all the relays that monitor what the power is doing, all of the protective equipment would immediately default to open or off which is again a mechanical interlock within the equipment itself. The power would shut down, but it would happen within milliseconds of the anomaly happening, and the transformers have protection, usually mounted within feet, or even on the transformer itself designed to chop the top off an electrical wave surging into the transformer with enough force to destroy it. They're called lightning or surge arresters, and they're designed to keep the transformer from structural failure when lightning strikes powerlines (which isn't all that uncommon).

Power can then be restored selectively by greatest need as the equipment was for the most part turned off before it was destroyed.

There are emergency measures for large scale equipment failures as well, but they're a back up of a back up of a back up plan. And all of this is listed external to whatever the actual nuclear plants have for emergency procedures.

I'm not denying that it would be a fraught time, and alot of people would likely be very busy, but I find his descriptions in the article go a little to far into the speculative.


Aphrael
Oh sweetheart, I don't have to run faster than the bear...


   
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(@tazweiss)
Honorable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 616
 

In 1989 an EMP from a solar flare knocked out transformers in Quebec. 6 million people lost power for 9 hours. The power grids are pretty much the same now as they were back then, in fact much of the same equipment is still in use. Google pictures of the transformers affected by that 1989 solar flare in Quebec. There is a reason why ALL the experts say that a Carrington Event today would be disasterous.


Those who are unwilling to defend freedom, will become unfree.


   
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(@perfesser)
Prominent Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 961
 

CME's come off the sun all the time. Odds are pretty low of a direct hit. Our own magnetic field is like a bubble around the earth and does a lot to protect us- sort of channels the particles around us to the poles (northern lights). Just now though our field is weak, and getting weaker. If a really big one came off directly at the earth it would be a bad scene.
This is a high impact- very low probability event.
It has happened before, odds are it will happen again. Up until 200 years ago nobody even noticed them. We're particularly unprepared for it right now- lots of vulnerable infrastructure. As time goes on the earth will be better prepared but it could be ugly IF it were to happen now. Rather it would be ugly in the developed world. Most of the rest of the planet still wouldn't notice.



   
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(@mokonotora)
Trusted Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 61
Topic starter  

I'm not going to argue with you Perfesser. I'm just going to sit back and watch you try and revise history and science. Start with that article I posted. Debunk that one and all the papers in there. It was peer reveiwed but sounds like you're smarter than the authors.

<Grabs Popcorn and puts feet up>



   
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(@perfesser)
Prominent Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 961
 

I think I agreed with just about everything there, but said it's not very likely. CME's are quite powerful but directional, like a bullet. Every CME is not headed for the earth.



   
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(@paintergirl)
Estimable Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 192
 

There is truth to our grid/satellites not being able to take the impact of a direct impact during the solar max.

We go through this solar pole shift on an 11 year cycle but every 100 or so years there seems to be an extra active year, a solar storm which a number of scientists have suspected there is strong potential for this year. One of my favorite speakers on this Dr Michio Kaku. This is an older broadcast on Youtube from 2010 but you will find similar elsewhere by a number of other scientists/researchers as well. He issued a solar max warning for 2012/2013 a couple of years back and speaks briefly of it's potential to set our society back 100 years in this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPdqr2v1rTQ

Unfortunately, the reality is if this storm turns out to be a big one and the grid goes down... the lights are probably are not coming back on for a loooong time...

By the way, check out spaceweather.com. They also offer an option for a news alert when there are x class slar flares, eclipses, spectacular aurora events... great site. 😀



   
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(@perfesser)
Prominent Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 961
 

Did you know Michio Kaku has a weekly radio spot? Sometimes repeats but his coverage of the Fukushima thing has been really good. I've been slacking off the last few months but if you're interested...
http://www.kpfa.org/archive/show/51



   
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(@paintergirl)
Estimable Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 192
 

Did you know Michio Kaku has a weekly radio spot? Sometimes repeats but his coverage of the Fukushima thing has been really good. I've been slacking off the last few months but if you're interested...
http://www.kpfa.org/archive/show/51

Thanks so much Pefesser, I will be checking out that link!



   
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(@pandoras)
Eminent Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 21
 

I'm not going to argue with you Perfesser. I'm just going to sit back and watch you try and revise history and science. Start with that article I posted. Debunk that one and all the papers in there. It was peer reveiwed but sounds like you're smarter than the authors.

<Grabs Popcorn and puts feet up>

I have gained alot of "intelligent' info from this forum but lately there seems to be certain people attacking others ideas (Mokonotora). It seems some think they have all the answers and I find it really rude and arrogant.I wouldnt want to be stuck in a community with such a person and feel sorry for anyone that will be.One last thought for you....Google New World Map ( Edgar Cacey and others) you might not feel so smug in your comments....most of British Columbia will be under water,including your island.Just thought i would share THAT with you.See what it feels like to have someone disrespect you and your ideas.Maybe, just maybe you will become a little more respectful of others on this forum.Some how I have my doubts.Peace



   
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(@anonymous)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 11254
 

Mokonotora,
I am confused here! The person you addressed your comments to was actually reinforcing most of them, and added the fact that they were directional. I agree, although most do miss some do hit, and it is confirmed. (The big black out in Ontario and New York is not being discussed as a Solar Hit as well in the internet, and by professionally people in the industry.)

I have noticed that they two of you are like OIL and WATER, I think your very similar, perhaps you can take a bit of a slow down on putting in negative comments, both of you please.
Everyone here seems to be an ALPHA personality, perhaps that is why we are not the SHEEPLE, most of us do research and have strong Opinions. I do, and I have also learned a lot from others here.

So cheers to info, cheers to sharing and a big CHEERS to getting along!
Cheers ~WildE



   
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(@pandoras)
Eminent Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 21
 

Mokonotora,
I am confused here! The person you addressed your comments to was actually reinforcing most of them, and added the fact that they were directional. I agree, although most do miss some do hit, and it is confirmed. (The big black out in Ontario and New York is not being discussed as a Solar Hit as well in the internet, and by professionally people in the industry.)

I have noticed that they two of you are like OIL and WATER, I think your very similar, perhaps you can take a bit of a slow down on putting in negative comments, both of you please.
Everyone here seems to be an ALPHA personality, perhaps that is why we are not the SHEEPLE, most of us do research and have strong Opinions. I do, and I have also learned a lot from others here.

So cheers to info, cheers to sharing and a big CHEERS to getting along!
Cheers ~WildE

I apologize to anyone I have offended...but if you read the posts of this person...he is constantly belittleing people and their ideas. Most people on this site are looking to uplift our lives and get positive input from this site,not demeaning comments, or derogatory remarks.Just to clear this up...I am not similar to this person, nor a Alpha personality.I just believe people should respect each others ideas instead of attacking people personally.PS(I dont know how you have noticed we are like OIL and WATER,because I have not posted any comments about his ideas...only the fact that he is rude to others that have posted where here has.So I have had my say...just as he has...and dont intend on wasting anymore precious time on people with his attitude Cheers to you.PEACE



   
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(@anonymous)
Illustrious Member
Joined: 15 years ago
Posts: 11254
 

He was attacking Perfessor not Aphrael, and they were the ones not agreeing with him/her

and I agree with you! mostly 😀
Thanks for backing up my thoughts as well, I try to stay of it mostly, and it is nice when others chime in to hold true to the course.



   
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(@traveller)
Reputable Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 383
 

I'm not going to argue with you Perfesser. I'm just going to sit back and watch you try and revise history and science. Start with that article I posted. Debunk that one and all the papers in there. It was peer reveiwed but sounds like you're smarter than the authors.

<Grabs Popcorn and puts feet up>

I have gained alot of "intelligent' info from this forum but lately there seems to be certain people attacking others ideas (Mokonotora). It seems some think they have all the answers and I find it really rude and arrogant.I wouldnt want to be stuck in a community with such a person and feel sorry for anyone that will be.One last thought for you....Google New World Map ( Edgar Cacey and others) you might not feel so smug in your comments....most of British Columbia will be under water,including your island.Just thought i would share THAT with you.See what it feels like to have someone disrespect you and your ideas.Maybe, just maybe you will become a little more respectful of others on this forum.Some how I have my doubts.Peace

Could not agree with you more with that post, very well stated..I was hoping this would be a share Ideas and help others,new to prepping...But it seems to be more of a sur-press the other person's Ideas and point of view ....I think there is a lot of intelligent people here and some that are trying to be...Lets maybe start adding to others ideas, instead of sur-pressing them. I think everyone can decide for them selves what is or is not relevant or factual....We all have our own ideas what may or may not occur in the troubled times to come.So I am asking for all of us to respect the other person's Ideas and statements...


Better to have it and not need it; then to need it and not have it...


   
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(@mokonotora)
Trusted Member
Joined: 14 years ago
Posts: 61
Topic starter  

Good that we all have our own ideas. They used to think the the world was flat. And Ann Elk had a theory once.

Bad information will get you dead. There is no reset button. If you read my posts I'm calling people out and asking them to show proof. None of them do. Some people here actually think that Vancouver Island will sink. Not making that one up. It's been refered to twice.

So I don't want to stop any of you from thinking I'm a nice guy. But if you start thinking that I have some good intelligence (Military type and other) and knowledge BEFORE I post then keep reading my posts. The reast of you should find a forum where they discuss ponies.



   
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