Just some musings on why we are all here. I'd love some input.
A common thread among many preppers, including more than a few here, is the expectation of some kind of "event" for any number of different reasons in which we will descend into lawlessness and chaos and have to fight off the barbarian hordes while learning to live without modern niceties. I hear so much focus on the collapse of society as a near instant, if not incredibly rapid progression from normal to SHTF/Mad Max/Malthusian dieoff.I get the feeling that those of us with little to begin with, may actually be fantasizing about collapse, because in that dystopian future, those higher up on the socio-economic scale get knocked down to their level, or suffer a worse fate. You get to compete on a relatively equal footing again. If you can't afford rent, let alone a house today and are tired of higher and higher food bills and crowded busses, maybe a fantasy collapse about getting to restart with living on a collective village farm sounds nice. Hey you get free land because you only have to oulive the massive dieoff right? Save enough food, get a gun and outlive everyone who didn't prepare, muhwahahahaa now your agrarian return is a success! The fact that you suck at math and science and can't get a good paying job doesn't matter now because a living is made with determination and the sweat of your brow.
A few things to consider:
- What if SHTF is not rapid or chaotic at all. Just a long slow grind into increasing poverty for the 99%. What if lawlessness never comes? What if there is no great reset or dieoff. Just lower wages, more expensive everything, frequent un and underemployment, and a breaking of our social safety nets. What if there is no lawlessness, just an increasingly authoritarian political/police/court/military response like perpetual marshall law. Climate change makes food more expensive, so your not starving...just hungry. There is no breakdown of law, the police only crack down harder to maintain the status quo for those who matter. There is no dieoff so you still have to pay your rent, and can't squat on someones farm to start a new life. But you are poorer. No car, no money for gas or insurance...though the wealthy still zip around in their BMWs with bellies full of delights you can't even dream of anymore. Society is still technologically sophisticated, more so than ever, however the benefits and availability for these marvels of modern science are out of your price range. You can't afford heat, let alone the new combined fuel cells the upperclass folks use to power their homes cars and businesses. What if the only jobs available are poverty level meanial labour or ones that require heavy doses of university maths and sciences, and the tax base has eroded so there are no more pensions, or public service to speak of. Everything is private. No EI, no welfare. You still gotta work, so there is no chance at getting "back to the land" because the wealthy agribusinesses own all of it. The land is out of your price range, and machine have done away even the labour that used to help with harvest. Illness is more common, because of poor nutrition, and our medicare system broke a long time ago. We only have private care that is far too expensive for someone on your wages. Out of desperation, much of your community have resorted to parochial medicine like snake oil salesmen and shamen, because that is all you can afford. To quell a discontent population policing is bigger than ever, and "rights" are things your parents talk about in the past tense. Protests aren't allowed and elections are only for shareholders. Policing is tight and harsh against the poor communities contraband, black markets, but the businesses you can buy from are all overpriced to the point of being predatory. Do prevent robbery, they have outlawed civilian arms, or at least restrict the permitting and licensing for the rich. Prisons are more dangerous, and no longer offer three squares a day and a library and games room. Forced labour and a subsistance diet. Many people die in prison, both from other prisoners, guards and poor conditions. The homeless and mentally ill are euthanized.There is now only the 1% who control all the wealth, and the rest of you.
- What if our event is less dramatic. What if it is just like today, with more or less democratic governments, social safety nets, a public service and compassionate and effective police force with the same laws as we have now...but all governments are broke and declining. People band together as best as they can but global competition kills Canadian manufacturing, and financial fraud killed finance so Toronto lost #1 and #2 for the economic engine. Resource jobs all pay Chinese slave wages. Investments go nowhere, savings get eaten by inflation, and unemployment is fierce. A major recession hits as you see Toronto slowly turn into Detroit. Fewer and fewer jobs. The poverty trap spirals until shops start closing. Eventually the franchises leave. Even the grocery stores close up shop. Crime is high, but law enforcement is still there. You still have to work, you still have to pay for transportation, rent, food and property taxes or condo fees. You work multiple piss poor jobs to make ends meet, and you greatest worry is how to take care of yourself on the bus at at transit station when the police aren't there. Property crime due to poverty and domestic crime due to economic distress are the order of the day.
- What if it is even less dramatic than that. What if life continues as it is today, but every year you are 5% poorer than the last. We still have good democratic government, social safety nets, a diversified economy and pretty much everything we do now. However globalization depresses wages, and overpopulation and consumption stress resources so between wage cuts and price increases each year you have 5% less than last year, even with that promotion you got at a good job. Your company is essential and your job is secure, but they just don't have the money to give raises even though your food bill and rent keep going up. Oil and gas are the worst. You can barely afford to keep you car maintained let alone fuelled. You walk whenever you can, but everything is so far away. You have to commute for work, so a big chunk of your budget goes up in tail exhaust. Your utility bills take up another huge chunk. More than they ever have before as we were forced to build new nuclear plants at 10 times the estimated cost. You dumped your solar panels as they are too expensive to replace the batteries and panels for the meager amount of electricity you get from them. Without government subsidies, it is still cheaper to buy off the grid.
My question is: Can you handle S not HTF? Do you preps and plans and expectations work all the way down, or are you just hoping to take over someone's farm once they die and there is no rule of law to stop you from taking whatever is left? What if you are completely right about collapse and dieoff, but it takes 20-40 years! What if the descent does eventually make it to the depths of chaos; climate change, crop failure, mass starvation, resource Wars, the draft, nuclear exchanges then quiet....but over a period of 100 years or more. You were right about the destination, but way off on the speed we travel to get there. In your lifetime, you only suffer the initial effects of these things. How do you endure? How do you compete for what is available when everybody else is just as hungry as you are, but law and order prevail? You don't get a single intruder in your home. No one gets shot. No roaming hordes of bandits lead by Tina Turner in fur skins. You risk rape or getting mugged every day on your way to work at your crappy job, and every day you come home to less and less material comforts.
Better yet, going back to my first paragraph about fantasizing about a great reset, if you are on the bottom of the socio-economic scale now (I'm not making any assumptions or judgements) , what makes you think you will be able to outcompete the people who climbed to the top in the first place. Even with a collapse, what makes you think you can outprep, outdefend, outfarm, out negociate, outbarter and outproduce today's doctors, chemists, engineers, lawyers and businessmen or entrpreneurs?
Whaddaya think?
I think peak oil and climate change will lead to one of the scenarios you describe. Most likely not the the worst case scenario, at least here in Canada.
With the 2008 agreement between Canada and the US to allow each others military enter the others country to help deal with civil unrest, it is not far fetched to think that increased military presence may be the outcome of a rapidly depleting oil economy.
I personally think it will be a gradual decline. Barring an unforeseen natural disaster, we will chug along with a little more costs, and little less income year after year. Some of us will get laid off, others will go back to school and over time we may end up living like people did a generation or more ago sharing households and costs, and doing more with less. To that end almost all of my goals are related to paying off debt and lowering costs in case of job loss or kids that have to live at home as adults.
I think there is a thread of "let the worst happen" at forums like these. We live in a pretty stable society where not many of us have ever had to protect body and home, and there is a a certain feeling of a wanting to test out one's mettle. Myself, I tend to be the careful ,moderate, plodder who keep an eye out and avoids trouble by trying to think ahead to the most obvious "what ifs" in my life.
What's been motivating me for the last decade is the story of my parents.
In the early 70's I remember them talking about their retirement and their savings. They were set to get just over $1000 a month from CPP. With the cost of living in the 60's they couldn't imagine even being able to spend all that money, and planned(and saved) accordingly.
By the time they did retire in the mid-80's, prices had gone up so much with all the inflation it barely covered utilities and groceries.
I've done a fair amount of thinking and a few conclusions are obvious.
Heat and light you get from the sun are free and not subject to inflation.
Food you grow is free and also not subject to inflation.
Wild game is free.
Water that falls from the sky is --you're seeing a pattern here....
If you put those systems under your control, by ingenuity and knowledge(not simply picking up the phone and cheque book) how many of your resources are available for other necessities ?
Learning stuff is a lot cheaper than buying stuff, keeps your mind and body active and healthy but sometimes can be a lengthy process(it will take 5-10 years before you really know what you're doing in a garden for instance).
We're a relatively prosperous country, we're not subject to life-threatening natural disasters so barring an event from space such as a CME or meteor strike I find it rather unlikely there will be rioting in desperation.
I would try to get yourself away from a position of dependency on the systems of society, be they an electrical grid, just-in-time food deliveries, garbage collection, water and sewage, etc etc.
Even with a collapse, what makes you think you can outprep, outdefend, outfarm, out negociate, outbarter and outproduce today's doctors, chemists, engineers, lawyers and businessmen or entrpreneurs?
I do, because I'm not a specialist.
Mr Momo, I agreed, it looks like that's what been going on, a slow and sneaky disconnected people and our connectives with the land. When your setting back after pulling 100 pounds of carrots, you see the slow decline of society. I look at my siblings who got there education and there pensions, but they live hand to mouth, seem being pour and some what sustainably living I have more disposable income than the people who rely on the government for there income. Be it in the form of pension or welfare.
What is not known even buy the smartest of society, is we just don't know what will happen. We could have Earth turn up side down for all we know. But what we do know is the USA and Canada have plans, and it looks like some of us are not part of it, but seeing how my ancestors have come this far i see know reason why we cant keep going hopefully under the radar
I do agree, but take exception with the word grind.As we slowly plod along, with a little less here, greater costs there,
It does not have to be a grind, it can instead be a great learning experience if you get proactive now, with mitigating the futures lower resourses, and higher costs.
We have benifited from a century + of cheap, and increasing energy use, and supply.
It historically cant, and will not go on forever. Much of what we do cant be sustained indefinitely.There is only one thing that endlessly consumes......Cancer
I think we are now collectivly consuming the host so to speak, by little measures, and great ones.
On a individual level reducing your energy needs reevaluating the types, quantity, and how its delivered, and used can go A long way to placing youself in a position to not be ground down. People have to start supplying some of there own basic needs, and as a benifit it will be good for the pocket book.
There has never been a better or more affordable time to do so.Solar panels are at the lowest prices ever, new wood stoves are the most efficient ever, longest burn times, easiest to use. Everywhere fully stocked building centers with all the needed supplies ( insulation,cfls,leds) to reduce our energy use. Garden centers, with everything needed to start growing.
The basics are so simple:
Water- it falls from the sky
Heat- wood, or whats appropriate for your area
Light(electricity)- wind, solar, generator
food- garden,hunt,fish raise chickens
Do a little, do a lot, do what you can, just do something. You will learn a lot, and save in the long run. No matter what happens, slow, fast complete, partial or no collapse, you will have saved money, and have fewer worries. I cant plan for everything, so I will just try for the most likely that will save me money, and provide for greater economic security, and wellbeing in the here and now.
roveing bands of zombies are not a concern in my area, maybe if I lived in Detroit,I am sure security would be higher on my radar then.
Ever increasing taxes,hidden and direct. Regulations that inhibit my ability to try, and live in a more sustainable way are on my mind more.
Of far greater concern in a SHTF is the government , and its apendages that will be looking to redistribute your 2000 cans of stored tuna (or whatever) for the "common" good. Or "organize" you, or your labour, again only for the "common" good during difficult times.
A case can be made that storing extra fishing rods,and seeds may prove more valuable as I cant see those on the "redistributed" receiving end finding something that cant be put directly into their mouth,or that requires time, and effort to be of any use.
As I think about it more........ I am starting think I maybe should hope for the barbarian hordes, and complete instant collapse, as they may show me some mercy,I have no such hope from any level of government, I can only expect to be handled in a very nonconsensual maner in a SHTF occation. I will only hope that when they are finished with me I still have my fishing pole, and seeds.
Mr Momo.
I have read many of your post here and agree with much that you have articulated so well. My question here is: Is there a point you are trying to make here? I am new to the idiology of prepping, but have had the mindset to be as independant as possible. Do you have meetings where you would be willing to share your experiance with others. I reside in the GTA and would greatly like to increase my indipendance on societal resources from backyard gardening, water management, canning etc. I am a highly skilled craftsman, as far as tooling, and building goes, but would very much like to increase my knowledge in canning and other natural areas.
If you or anyone else is interested in sharing thier knowledge within the GTA please contact me.
Thank you.
Duer, I think a great resource for learning is the Survival Podcast. http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/
In spite of it's name it's not about hunkering down in a bunker with 20 years worth of food. It's about self reliance and learning to fend for yourself independent of the system of supply most of us have become reliant on. If you are the skilled craftsman you claim to be, this should be simple stuff for you. You already know how to think independently. Their forums are filled with enough information you'll be able to reference anything you need.
The podcast itself gives you a sort of ongoing tutorial you can take in while driving or working in your shop. I download the daily episodes and listen during my commute, pretty much never turn on the radio anymore.
'The event' is already here. We are right at the start of it and it will be slow and painful. everything that happens over the next decade (civil unrest, wars, famine etc) is tied directly in to the finacial mess we're in and peak oil (which will be the reason the economy stuggles to bounce back or even never bounces back in the form we remember).
When people can't afford to drive to work or the store because gas is $3.00 a litre, your police officers, firefighters, garbage collectors etc aren't getting paid and veggies at the store cost twice what they did. You will see civil unrest...people will have to live off the land...allotment type gardens willl spring up everywhere. Home grown/ manufactured produce will become the norm...for example, not shipping 73% of our garlic from China.... The way things are set at the moment dosen't make sense and perhaps a new order, a new way of conducting ourselves is a good thing.
I just hope after everything settles down we still have the internet. 2c
"I think that I am very reasonable therefore ......." ICRCC
Thank you Perfesser.
I'm sure this site will help greatly. As I continue my own research I am concerned with attempting those things that are a first time for me, such as canning. From what I have read, botulism is not something I would like to experiance. I understand it may take up to a year to fully recover. Although I am confident in following instruction it is nice to have a hands on guide just to make sure nothing has been overlooked. I will continue my endeavor in further learning and further attempts to obtain any hands on help with any and all matters I am unfamilior with.
Thank you again. Any and all help is appreciated greatly.
Since I am a true Urbanite and could not possibly live as a Permaculturer or Homesteader. I can sure apply any revalant theory's and or skills within an Urban setting.
Again Thank you.
Duer...
Personally I think we're in for the slow grind but there's still the problem of an entire generation, maybe even 2 that are unable to fend for themselves. They'll be lost if they can't pick up the phone for a pizza or pop a microwave dinner in.
They might figure out how to heat up a can of stew but show them a bag of dried beans or flour and they have no clue how to turn it into food.
They'll cry for government assistance and be willing to sacrifice even more of our freedoms for some measure of what they perceive to be security or really just a handout.
Not having to rely on anyone is true liberty, true freedom.
Grocery store shelves empty of the convenience foods or simply too expensive to afford could turn a slow grind into a SHTF in a hurry though. Just like the middle east last year. They didn't want freedom so much as affordable food.
And that carbon04 will be the end of our internet. Content will be censored or "influenced" like the monopolized main stream media of today. It will be like the CBC on your desktop......
And that carbon04 will be the end of our internet. Content will be censored or "influenced" like the monopolized main stream media of today. It will be like the CBC on your desktop......
thats already upon us....Wikileaks was the (unintentional) death of the internet as we know it....i was all for Wikileaks, or at least the principle of someone taking those to task who thought they were beyond reproach....however, if you shoot at someone expect the goverment to take your gun away to stop you shooting anyone else....Wikileaks took pot shot after pot at the American goverment using the internet as a gun. by hook or by crook over the next two to three years they will remove your right to visit certain websites.
"I think that I am very reasonable therefore ......." ICRCC
Can I handle S not HTF? This seems like an odd question because the S hasn't HTF yet, and I think we are all handling it just fine. So why are we prepping? Well, why do we pay on auto insurance? Sure auto insurance is required, but the point is, prepping is very similar to any type of insurance. Insurance is our fall back 'just in case' something bad happens. I store up on food 'just in case' something bad happens, whatever it may be. But the best thing about preppers 'insurance', is that it never gets wasted. I've been paying for auto insurance all my driving life, and every month that money just goes out the window, never to be seen again. On the other hand, any food I store, or skill I learn will never be wasted.
The bottom line is, whenever a change in the economy occurs, I too then have to change. By me becoming more self-reliant, the easier it is for me to make those changes, if I have to make any at all.
So lets say the great reset doesn't come for aeons. I'm sure in the time from this day, to that, there will be countless winter storms, draughts or power outages in which a nice store of food and a few skills may come in handy. Heck, I may be snowed in tomorrow for all I know.
In regards to your last statement/question, if the scholarly are not versed in the ways of survival/homesteading, then I damn sure will outcompete them. The knowledge and ability to do any particular task is all that is needed. If a bum and a surgeon were dropped, stark naked, on the streets of Prince George-BC, in the dead of winter and were in a contest to see who could survive the longest, you better believe my money will be riding on the bum. Degrees and schooling, in my mind, do not make a better man or woman.
I think we are well on our way into the slow grind. Look at the US. They have slowly introduced laws that have pretty much squashed human rights. they did it on the fear they hear from the media. " everyone is out to get the USA, they are jelous, you don't think exactly the way we do you are anti USA" They are trying to or have passed a law where they can arrest you and never charge you with anything. This use to be only for non - citizens who they thought might be a terrist threat, now it applies to everyone.
People are losing their full time jobs and companies are replacing them with part timers with no benefits. They have workfare, where some of the people work in jobs that use to be paid but is now a volunteer postion and they get to keep thier welfare. That one is contriversal , do you allow them to do nothing or make slave labor?
My job is a government job, I make less then $15/h, part time. The people above me make $10/h more. That job use to be full time. Now less than 25% of the employees are full time. They replace 1 full timer with 2 part timers. Now they want to redefine my job to inc, the duties of the people making the $24/h. Are they over paid ? Yes they are but they also should get more than $15/h. Why because they city is expensive to live in. We may not get a wage increase this contract, but if we do it will only be 2%. When inflation is 2x that you do end up with less at the end of the week. When my daughter was small ( only 15 yrs ago)I lived comfortably on $1500/month. Now most apartments in my city are easily that much. The 2nd paragraph is happening now. Maybe it hasn't involved most of the citizens but some are already there or on the edge.
We talk at work and I am shocked at how many of these people have no skills. They don't cook at all, they can't sew a stitch, the one girl gets winded after 10 min of walking. I worry if I am prepared but then I see them and I figure I am not so bad off. I can and do grow veggies and fruit. Will we ever be 100% prepared? Probably not. But those who can adjust will be the ones who survive.
We have been on the slow grind since the 50's. the world is on the verge of bankruptsy due to our fractional banking system and once that happens it will speed up quickly. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EewGMBOB4Gg If you havent watched it please do.
:twisted:I`m not carzy everyone else is!:twisted: