Expert at Western University sees big climate changes by 2050
Saturday, June 9, 2012 9:54:53 EDT AM
LONDON - Wetter, warmer, wilder.
Welcome to southern Ontario in 2050.
A study for the Insurance Bureau of Canada by renowned London climate expert Gordon McBean details what people can expect to endure across Canada. And it’s not going to be a picnic.
The Western University professor’s 69-page report says Ontario can expect more scorching summer days, hail storms, damaging winds, risk of flash floods, ice storms and heavier snowfalls near the lakes.
The winter ice cover is expected to virtually disappear on the southern Great Lakes by 2050 and be sharply reduced on the northern Great Lakes.
The warming conditions will also lead to dramatic increases in wildfires — by 50% to 500%, particularly over northwestern Ontario.
For the report, McBean, who heads the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction at Western, and his colleagues compiled international studies, Environment Canada reports and other Canadian data.
There’s no doubt the world’s climate system is warming, with temperatures in Canada increasing at a rate twice the global average, the report said.
The higher temperatures equate to increases in damaging weather events.
While the report concludes human activity is behind much of the change, McBean said reducing greenhouse gas emissions now won’t make a difference in the 2050 outlook.
That’s because climate change is driven by changes in ocean temperature and it takes time for oceans to warm up.
“The result is when you do the analysis you come to the conclusion that from now to 2050 climate change is already built in. It is going to happen regardless of our emission reductions,” McBean said.
Insurance Bureau chief economist Gregor Robinson said the bureau decided to commission the study because members were already seeing substantial increases in claims because of severe weather.
“In each of the past three years the cost of natural catastrophic losses have been above a billion dollars. It is a record, it’s never been that high before,” Robinson said.
Last year, losses set a new record of $1.7 billion. Since the 1980s, losses have been doubling every five to 10 years, he said. Another indicator of the impact of the changing climate is that water damage has now surpassed fire as the largest cause of insurance claims in Canada.
The point of the work isn’t to debate the cause of the climate change, but to prompt people and government to take action to deal with it, Robinson said.
Governments need to look at replacing aging sewer systems that won’t be able to handle the intense rainfalls and homeowners should ensure they have backstops on their drains and that their properties are properly graded.
“For communities and individuals we are recommending be careful of where you build,” Robinson said.Ontario's 2050 outlook:
Warmer on average throughout the year, about 3 degrees higher along the southern Great Lakes in winter and 2 to 3 degrees in the summer.
The number of frost-free days is expected to double.
The number of days with temperatures hitting above 30 C will increase in Toronto from about 15 in 2005 to 28 in 2050
Winter precipitation will increase 20% near Hudson Bay and 10% in the south
Summer precipitation will jump about 5% in the north with a smaller increase in the south
Freezing rain events lasting six hours a day or longer will rise 35% in Southwestern Ontario and 80% in the east. Up north, the jump will be 80%-100%.
This past winter was a reality check. warmer climate is here! ya we had a beautiful spring and so far this year not too much to complain about weather wise but, the reality is, Southern Ontario is getting warmer and we can see it. Warmer usually means drier too. 🙁
wow
I doubt that I'll still be around in 2050......
Much as I hate to say this, I think their predictions for 2050 are a little too optimistic. My more pessimistic outlook based just on what I've been observing happening here on the west coast (and down in the southern states) is that those conditions they're predicting will be met much sooner than 2050. I'm thinking more like in another 20 years, or less.
Has anyone noticed that the climate of Ontario has already changed quite drastically in the last 10 to 15 years?
Yup... Why when I was a boy I'd have snow up to my eyebrows and have to walk 20 miles to school uphill both ways... 🙂
On a more serious note there has definitely been a real change anecdotally. Warmer, Less precipitation in the winter... shorter Fall and Spring. It's like we go from winter to summer and back again now instead of having a true 4 season climate.
As a kid I only remember seeing wisps of clouds but for years now there are "regular" ones
The climate shift has already started 4 years ago, it will take 10+/- years for the change to happen. The climate is shifting 200 mile/320 km northward. The Climatologist of the time said that the 7th year would be the wackiest and it will settle down by the 10th.
"We 'Prep.' to live after a downfall, Not just to survive."
The best advice in regards to the weather changing is plan ahead to prepare for it in regards to what you are doing outside (yard/Garden) and inside as well..
Indoor examples, if we are going to have more power outs and or ice storm days, get the ice grips for your shoes in different sizes, prepare for loss of power up to the typical amount for what you consider the outside extreme in this regards, learn how you would deal with rolling brownouts in a heat wave.. etc
Outdoor examples, learn the method of dry land planting (for when water becomes more hard to come by), work on keeping your tree's well trimmed in case of ice storms but at the same time, plant tree's or bushes now for use if you lost power in the heat of summer, so that you can use the effect of them helping to cool the air getting to the house itself.
Garden examples, long term plant with climiate change in mind, I have planted some fruit tree's that are cold hardy enough for into zone 3 (I'm zone 5a at the moment) but I have also planted the same kinds of fruit tree, the other way, pushing the outer zone of the 5 but with them able to need less cold days and being able to go warmer.. Many of my different longer term planned plantings are done this way, half planted for it it get one or even two zones colder then noraml and same on the other side if it gets hotter/warmer.
http://livingmydreamlifeonthefarm.wordpress.com/
As a kid I only remember seeing wisps of clouds but for years now there are "regular" ones
On hot days, the puffy huge clouds in the sky (I can't remember the name right now, not enough sleep) but we used to lie in the field and say "Oh there is a pig... ohhhh look it's like an angel wing!" hell. we could do that for HOURS! That was 82-92 and now, the clouds are a grey tinge, they aren't as poofy and it's not the same 🙁
This past year, the weather has been wild. I believe the next 6 months is going to be a roller coaster ride for sure. I think we will have more ice events and less snow events, the possible good from this? A longer growing season. 😀
Ah the good ol' ice storm!
Best advice ever in that article and the reason I will always have a couple of extra corded phones in my house....
Note: cordless phones didn’t work – luckily we still had a old corded phone.
Cordless phones need power to work. I had them but, I have always had a corded one too. everytime the power goes out, I still have my phone lol
Expert at Western University sees big climate changes by 2050
Saturday, June 9, 2012 9:54:53 EDT AM
LONDON - Wetter, warmer, wilder.
Welcome to southern Ontario in 2050.
A study for the Insurance Bureau of Canada by renowned London climate expert Gordon McBean details what people can expect to endure across Canada. And it’s not going to be a picnic.
The Western University professor’s 69-page report says Ontario can expect more scorching summer days, hail storms, damaging winds, risk of flash floods, ice storms and heavier snowfalls near the lakes.
The winter ice cover is expected to virtually disappear on the southern Great Lakes by 2050 and be sharply reduced on the northern Great Lakes.
The warming conditions will also lead to dramatic increases in wildfires — by 50% to 500%, particularly over northwestern Ontario.
For the report, McBean, who heads the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction at Western, and his colleagues compiled international studies, Environment Canada reports and other Canadian data.
There’s no doubt the world’s climate system is warming, with temperatures in Canada increasing at a rate twice the global average, the report said.
The higher temperatures equate to increases in damaging weather events.
While the report concludes human activity is behind much of the change, McBean said reducing greenhouse gas emissions now won’t make a difference in the 2050 outlook.
That’s because climate change is driven by changes in ocean temperature and it takes time for oceans to warm up.
“The result is when you do the analysis you come to the conclusion that from now to 2050 climate change is already built in. It is going to happen regardless of our emission reductions,” McBean said.
Insurance Bureau chief economist Gregor Robinson said the bureau decided to commission the study because members were already seeing substantial increases in claims because of severe weather.
“In each of the past three years the cost of natural catastrophic losses have been above a billion dollars. It is a record, it’s never been that high before,” Robinson said.
Last year, losses set a new record of $1.7 billion. Since the 1980s, losses have been doubling every five to 10 years, he said. Another indicator of the impact of the changing climate is that water damage has now surpassed fire as the largest cause of insurance claims in Canada.
The point of the work isn’t to debate the cause of the climate change, but to prompt people and government to take action to deal with it, Robinson said.
Governments need to look at replacing aging sewer systems that won’t be able to handle the intense rainfalls and homeowners should ensure they have backstops on their drains and that their properties are properly graded.
“For communities and individuals we are recommending be careful of where you build,” Robinson said.Ontario's 2050 outlook:
Warmer on average throughout the year, about 3 degrees higher along the southern Great Lakes in winter and 2 to 3 degrees in the summer.
The number of frost-free days is expected to double.
The number of days with temperatures hitting above 30 C will increase in Toronto from about 15 in 2005 to 28 in 2050
Winter precipitation will increase 20% near Hudson Bay and 10% in the south
Summer precipitation will jump about 5% in the north with a smaller increase in the south
Freezing rain events lasting six hours a day or longer will rise 35% in Southwestern Ontario and 80% in the east. Up north, the jump will be 80%-100%.
This past winter was a reality check. warmer climate is here! ya we had a beautiful spring and so far this year not too much to complain about weather wise but, the reality is, Southern Ontario is getting warmer and we can see it. Warmer usually means drier too. 🙁
Here is what we were lookin for I new it was here somewhere
As I have said already, that climate change has already started. Not my words, I got this out of a popular science magazine, over 6 years ago. 😕
"We 'Prep.' to live after a downfall, Not just to survive."
Mamaizzy wrote on June 10th "This past year, the weather has been wild. I believe the next 6 months is going to be a roller coaster ride for sure." The fascinating question is; why do you say this. Many, many people are saying the same thing, me included. However what source or what evidence is this based on? Maybe it is like my case it is just a "feeling". Which then poses a bigger question.