The thing is, we do not know the real numbers
For North America we do see to have good survival rate and that’s great. Now, an asthmatic, person with heart condition.. may not fair as well.
Then there’s the cost to production...So for now, the jury is still out for how many deaths there truly are and what impact to our nation be. Remember, we are not a compliant society like comms China! This could result in govt changes, etc
Well I will go out on a limb here and while I agree we don't know the real numbers, or maybe it would be wise to not believe any. Still from the raw numbers given its bouncing right around the 3 % range for lethality. If this was on a trajectory for a world wide calamity I would have expected much more by now. Still don't know anyone with It, and whats it been now? months? I think its likely well under control in developed countries as it pops up. I don't say this lightly but I suspect 30 days from now no one on this board will know of anyone with it, just as today. Feel free to bring up my post 30 days from now and make me eat these words if I am wrong. I say this all as someone who would be in the "at risk group". With our health care (first world) even if it spread here, the lethality will be far less than elsewhere. Now as for economic impact... that is happening, not to me mind you but for those still playing casino capitalism, on the treadmill needing fiat currency to keep the balls in the air....well your ride could get bumpy.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.
Peppercorn, the way I look at it is, we do not know true numbers, we see happy talk one day and then two days later it changes. We know unpleasant facts are not embraced by people or in particular, their masters.
We do indeed have better health care then China. And it sounds like both of us would prefer not to catch this.
Here’s some fun reading material. There are lots of clues or considerations mentioned in the first one
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-clusters-outside-china-1.5473011
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-19-iran-bc-south-korea-1.5472316
When you read it, you can learn a great deal on the various impacts this may also have in the west. From as I believe you very accurately predict, the stock exchange. Also to availability of goods, subsequent job losses from stores not selling product they can’t obtain or from people avoiding stores .
Our hospitals often run at at 95-120% capacity so we would not look good if we have a few hundred or god forbid a thousand cases per city. Remember, people may not have it but still show up in emergency. Right now, as you accurately mention there are only a few cases and maybe your one month projection will be accurate. I hope so!
But look at the numbers in South Korea. A week ago there were a handful, now it’s over 600. Last week, people were blowing it off, today, maybe not so much so As in most cases, there are likely far more then this. I say this not to dramatize or raise conspiracies, but the simple fact is, yes indeed many people just have a cough, ... and never report to hospital because they think it’s just a regular cold. Makes sense and can’t blame people for that. BUT these people do walk amongst us and will bump into someone who will develop more serious symptoms and may bump into you or I one day. If I get pneumonia, it can be an SOB to get rid of.
Now, let’s get back to dear canada and the US. I wonder what our cities would look like if the trends in spreading replicate Korea, Japan.... all modern nations, with health care... certainly more congested, but Toronto, Vancouver, LA, NYC, Dallas..... are all pretty busy places.
People in cities touch and breath on a lot of people in a day. We are fortunate to be somewhat isolated, but with planes continuing to discharge people from all around the world into our slightly congested cities, the odds increase! Those R values on spread of the virus start to become real. Last week, the experts were babbling about how it appeared to be contained to mainly China, now, not so much. Of course WHO has no ideas and just keeps yapping about how dangerous it could be and we need $750 million more to talk about it.... I wonder if the brave WHO has left the hotels in Beijing and ventured out to the actual epicenter yet 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
As to our health care system. We rely upon who for meds and medical equipment, masks..... ? Ah yes, China and India. What happens when it hits India? I wonder how well stocked our hospitals really are to handle tens of thousands of suspected cases? Hospitals will blow through supplies real fast then there are the medicines not only in use at the hospitals but by everyday citizens!
The first CBC article mentions what is well known and appreciated by the “prepared community” and that is the shelves emptying real fast. If a person with limited financial means, only gets a months supply of meds at a time, figures, to get three and put on their visa, what will be the impact?
I have no idea if and how we will be hit with cases here in Canada. No idea on numbers, BUT I do know we are very vulnerable if we do get hit AND even if we are not, we can still be in a world of financial pain or we get hit from absence of medicines and it becomes a combo financial and med supply issue.
Something else is in play here and it’s clearly on display with the current rail issues. This is NOT political but simply an analysis or insight to how we as a nation appear able to handle even a minor crisis. We can’t handle a few rail protesters, anyone think we are geared up to handle a serious event is, I would say dreaming. Of course we could send in the army... and of course we could see more “accidental” train derailments like the past three “suspicious “ cases. irregardless, it does speak to our nations mental ability to act quickly and decisively. Agree or disagree with why this is happening, one does see the reaction or lack thereof and without a stretch of the imagination could not be blamed for seeing it played out in a more paralyzing scenario If tens of thousands do get hit. The longer we keep planes flying into canada with people, the greater the odds. Not very nice and will certainly cause pain, but are the alternatives worth it?
Hope you are correct about your one month guess, I really do!
Peace love and harmony to all.
They’ve shifted the message now, I see.
“Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food.”
They’ve shifted the message now, I see.
“Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food.”
No kidding captain obvious. At least they are admitting it a bit. They still have head up a dark place because they keep letting people in.
In one breath they say, that you may not exhibit sysmtoms but be a carrier. OK, got that mr obvious, but then and this is the beyond moronic part, they let people in, wander around, likely spreading the love!!! Oh report when you feel ill, by then it’s to late and you have spread it around! God these people are dumber then a sack of rocks.
Of course it’s a costly thing to shut down international air travel, but it’s a dang sight less expensive then having thousands or more, being treated. We haven’t even banned China, let alone others who all have it.
Without going into tin foil hat realm, I did note, some doctors mentioning strains of HIV and sars in the virus. In my past professional world, I was taught to not only look for what is said but what is not. We have messages about washing hands but where’s our labs reports on the genetic or other compound makeup of this virus. What exactly is in it that has nations so concerned? Simple question yet I haven’t seen anything since some of the initial leaked findings. Maybe I missed the WHO, CDC, or laugh of laughs, health canada telling us exactly what’s in it.
Perhaps crownsown can call upon a contact they have in health canada and get the info
Reporters are simply parroting what they are told and no one is asking any hard questions.
So the old phrase, silence can be deadly is as usual, something to worry about. The more we keep each other informed or clued into the inconsistent blather, the better we may be.
Thanks for the find. Happy they are starting to mention the obvious. Guessing she will be scolded for revealing even the little she did.
Clarence, I think the hiv nonsense was discredited weeks ago when you first referenced it in zerohedge article.. I mean its great to collect and disseminate "intel". But twice posting debunked information that a 5 minute web search would turn up doesn't strike me as very helpful.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/
Clarence, I think the hiv nonsense was discredited weeks ago when you first referenced it in zerohedge article. I mean its great to collect and disseminate "Intel". But twice posting debunked information that a 5 minute web search would turn up doesn't strike me as very helpful.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/
Scrounged, please take this as frustration with the official info we are getting and not you for having an issue with my post. Here’s the thing, maybe i am wrong, just because it wasn't peer reviewed by WHO, who we all know can only repeat that this may be serious and governments need to look at their plans! wow, what a useful piece of info that is from such a supposedly important group like the who. My granddaughter could probably figure that out.
Well, can you or anyone who wishes to dispute these rumors. PLEASE post what exactly this thing is made up of. Please let us know. Surely to heck a number of governments and all the thousands of scientists they have at a seconds call have delved into this and have it all figured out?
maybe i am looking at too many tin foil posts in the pursuit of trying to understand this and missed the big peer reviewed announcement. Oh and given its been months now, NO ONE can say they don't know the exact makeup of this! Also can someone PLEASE post a post from CDC, WHO or LOL Health Canada on all the effects or known characteristics of the virus.
the governments are doing so many stupid things with this, its pathetic, taking temperatures and if a person has one, they let everyone else go home. forget which airline, but one had sick people on the flight but allowed the air crew to keep flying!!!! we keep letting people in from China!!! really, at this stage of the game we are still doing this! So who has more credibility, the gov, WHO or simple people trying to figure it out. given how little people have to go on, i would tend to favor people over what is obvious incompetence. Ever notice how doctors from China giving details were shut down, sounds like they were also thrown in the clink. So here we have tiny glimpses into the truth and then boom, they disappear, BUTTTTTT, trust us, we are giving real numbers, have it covered. HORSE PUCKS
what are the tests done to determine if one has it, Are swabs guaranteed to work and always work or are Scans needed? can people be reinfected? is 14 day GAUREENTEED to be effective or are we "hoping" read this i just pulled. https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/24/china-requarantines-cured-coronavirus-patients/
HERE'S A SHORT QUOTE from it "Authorities in the Chinese city of Wuhan introduced a 14-day mandatory quarantine this weekend for patients who had supposedly recovered from the coronavirus after some discharged patients again tested positive for the disease.
Saturday afternoon, all patients who had recovered and been discharged were forced to return to quarantine, the city’s coronavirus treatment and control command center announced on the Chinese social media site Weibo.
The new arrangements were announced after disease control experts warned that those who had supposedly made a recovery from the virus may have not done so after all and may still carry the virus and present a consequent contagion risk."
I LOVE TO HAVE sound info or intel, its all i go on and i look at everything i can get that may sound half credible. lots of times, during investigations i have found the truth in a tiny snippet of news and all the pros were lying or just plain dumb.
I would have loved for our governments to make open announcements on this. no need for drama and panic but for the love of Christ, if you have what its made of, then post it and compare with all the experts and lets see who is right ( them, not us poor schmucks trying to figure things out)
So by all means, someone should post the very detailed infojust give us the truth on what is now a 3 plus month old virus.
Actually in this case you are wrong. The information you are passing along about hiv in the virus is simply not true. The fact that you don't know the virus make up doesn't mean you fill in the gap with incorrect information. The author of the paper retracted it as untrue.
Actually in this case you are wrong. The information you are passing along about hiv in the virus is simply not true. The fact that you don't know the virus make up doesn't mean you fill in the gap with incorrect information. The author of the paper retracted it as untrue.
Actually in this case you are wrong. The information you are passing along about hiv in the virus is simply not true. The fact that you don't know the virus make up doesn't mean you fill in the gap with incorrect information. The author of the paper retracted it as untrue.
Well I hear you. Please let the board know exactly what it is. Should be super easy to obtain from official sources, after all, these crazy sources are always wrong.
Look forward to seeing link to the truth. Someone please help this confused person.
BTW, I have investigated enough officials, criminals, lying employees, thieves, janitors, security guards, managers, business men, government workers, presidents of companies, schleps, ...etc to fill a boat. With this entire affair, I don’t just smell manure, but a factory of it. Maybe it is nothing and no one will talk about it in a month but on the CTV news this evening, one of the leaders of Canadian gov people were saying ( uncomfortably) that stocking up a few months of meds may be wise. I about fell out of my chair, bless her heart for being honest and I mean that sincerely!
So PLEASE, someone post what this things chemical or genetic make is. Now if no one can, can those who can’t find it, please keep an open mind and not blow off a theory when there is an inexcusable absence for what is an easy to obtain one!
So can someone post an official breakdown?
https://www.asianscientist.com/2020/02/in-the-lab/china-coronavirus-covid-19-study/
https://blogs.plos.org/dnascience/2020/02/20/covid-19-vaccine-will-close-in-on-the-spikes/
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30134-1/fulltext
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china
https://www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/campaigns/coronavirus
I had heard a couple of weeks ago that there had been some success treating the virus with HIV meds, which indicated that PERHAPS there was some HIV DNA in the virus. This info was of course used by many as "proof" that the virus was man made. Is it true? Who knows and who cares...knowing or not knowing where it came from doesn't help me prepare for it. We all know that there are countries out there with bioweapon programs, and yes, accidents (even intentional tests) can happen. I've heard too many theories to believe any of them...bioweapon release, bat soup, the chinese version of a raccoon, even a weird armadillo/anteater type animal, the list goes on and on.
Scrounger, thanks for the links, I read each one, but not in depth. I see reference made to sars...and all the references to bats etc. these are papers... from private or NGO sites and are great, but I can’t say that my untrained eyes actually read that the entire makeup of this has been presented. Example, three parts this, six parts this, two parts that etc etc. also, I did not see any paper from CDC or others that one would expect to have this openly published by now and open to review by all for validation and official comment.
I do not wish to under value what they mention but I do not see what I am familiar with from past detailed reports on a complete chemical breakdown of a virus. Again, maybe I am missing it and if so, I sincerely apologize in advance.
NOTE: I would like to apologize to any and all in this forum if I appeared to be “screaming”, the end is nigh, being too critical in my tone, preachy etc.
I come from a background in finding the truth and I have to tread a thin line between past life and this one. In the past I was able to sit across from people, observe, monitor....... and either directly challenge them or get to the truth by other means. Each response generated another question and so on. This forum is not the place to do this and I was wrong in being so challenging with people who like me, are well intentioned, not the opponent or target and who simply wish to learn the truth.
So please accept this as an apology. I will do my best to rein in my frustration with those who are charged with this file and as far as my background experience goes, are failing in their duties to their fellow citizens and are once more trying to catch the horse that bolted from the unlocked doors on the barn they are in charge of securing.
So peace be upon everyone in this forum, all the best in ones preps and trying to help families and friends in theirs.
I hope peppercorn is correct and this ends up in a month from now as a nothing burgher.
All the best to all in our quests. Cheers
Clarence, no need to apologize. It’s good to have caring folks who are passionate. I’ve learned to never trust a government official saying “things are fine”. There is more info out there as of the last 24 hours and they pretty much all read “things are NOT fine.”
I’ve personally ramped up a few preps in case isolation is required. My biggest challenge is realizing that at some point, we may need to self isolate as I unfortunately cannot see officials imposing this on time; closing the barn doors after the horses left kinda situation. But you do it too early and there are job/school consequences, that is, Mrs, little one and I can’t simply tell our bosses and teacher “sorry, we won’t be around for the foreseeable future, TTYL”
The good thing is that we’re not the usual target for morbidity. We’re in our 40s and generally healthy. We also live rurally and work and attend school in smaller town. We’re also not the kind that attends mass gatherings or even visit malls and like places. That buffers us from the masses.
Between economic ripples and the virus itself, the next while will be interesting!
Thanks Heli, but I let my frustrations get to far ahead and I can be a bit windy at time, so says my dear wife 😳
Yes, it is an SOB to say see ya later to a boss, career and obviously much needed cash flow. Should this get some legs, it will be interesting to see how it plays out with businesses. Going to place a comment in peppercorns post of supply shortages.
Cheers
a women in Japan has redeveloped the virus! She was given the all clear after first infection but it came back. Reports as unreliable as they are from China, indicate infections are reoccurring there.
That can be a fun event. Imagine you get the all clear, get back to living, with family, office... but you start spreading it around again.
How does one handle that in the family...? Do the once infected become semi permanent people to avoid? Some of the social factors will need to be figured into people’s plans
Well Folks.. Glad to see you guys are in fact keeping up on this..
yes to all the above.. I am currently sitting at 3 in some ways but 4 in others on that scale of 1 to 5.. We are prepared, and we are preparing.. but also looking at some things that are out of our control with a groan and a snarl..
Its coming, and its going to hurt.. Even if you never get it yourself, you are still going to feel the effects in other ways..
http://livingmydreamlifeonthefarm.wordpress.com/