The Fallback Scenario
I try to imagine the proper of steps one should follow in the event of a crisis . The first most will likely have is to gather with your loved ones. This instinct is strong, but valuable time will be lost in those last minute preparations could be detrimental later on. Working out a thorough plan in advance and teaching it to your loved ones is the best defense for such an event. Considerations have to be made according to each individuals age and abilities, but the basic plan should likely be something like this:
1. Contact family member(s) and give them the heads up in case they are unaware of events.
2. Have each member do a task(if possible) on their way to where your will meet. This includes:
• each member stopping at ATM and withdrawing your daily limit cash.
• gas up vehicles and gas cans
• stocking up un essentials, especially those you determine your low on.
• determine potential time lost due to lineups and weigh stocking up on other items instead to even barter later
• consider possibility of robbery when leaving store by measuring public's mood, plan your exist
• remind each member to watch if they are followed home
3. Bug-In: Stay put to see whether you can ride out this event. Be aware that when the Official News sources state "to remain calm", most folks will likely panic. It's predicting what the local mood in your area that counts. This is determined by measuring the extent of basic essentials.
• Grocery stores likely carry only enough for 3 day supply for the neighborhood
• local gas stations combined likely carry enough fuel for 7 days of regular demand
• Expect both to be emptied within hours of an impending crisis.
Then folks settle in to wait out the storm. Those who never succeeded in the mad rush to the stores are likely the first to run out and resort to maybe taking what they don't have.
Psychologists determine that the average man (watching his family go without food or water), is capable of stealing for his family within 3 days and killing within 7 days. I'm sure they were even being conservative in these figures...
I present the above statement to show you the possible mindset of an individual who is likely to be knocking at your door while you were patiently waiting for the crisis to end. He will likely be logical and even courteous while trying to get you to open the door for a discussion on present events and working together, etc....
• Do you know him?
• Do you really trust him?
• If you give him something, will he leave or now see you as weak?
• Is he measuring your defenses while chatting nice?
He is right that working together makes your area of defense stronger.
Is he well stocked enough to be an ally or likely to become a danger if he knows your weaknesses?
Any allies should have been determined earlier and allowing any late joiners could likely endanger both you and your family.
Do you have security measures in place to just wait it out and for how long?
Imagine that you wanted to break into your own house. How would you do it?
• Take measures to secure every possible entry to your home
• place traps outside of windows such as buried boards with protruding nails
• board or cover all windows to prevent outsider from gathering intel
• plan an emergency exit strategy from your house, should the need arise
• prepare your bugout vehicle for such an event and guard it to maintain that option
It's during this period of "wait & see", that final preparations should be made for a fallback. Now options need to be weighed by variables set by the emergency.
• how much fuel do you have and how far must you go to get to safety?
• how fast must you travel?
• What stays and what goes?
• Which exit roads are open and how well travelled?
• Should or would you be the first or of the last to exit?
4. Bug Out: This requires a mode of transportation...The more modes you have at your disposal, the better prepared you can be. Each mode can contain a fallback to a lesser mode as events might require. Choices will vary due to present road & travel conditions.
Motorhome : a home on wheels with fuel capacity to travel 300-700 Km without refueling. Hauls all your prepper supplies to a new local. Equipped with roofracks, ladder, rear racks, hitch, Hopefully towing trailer. Maybe your mate driving bug-out vehicle following. Best for long term stability and family security.
Bug Out Vehicle: Your vehicle best suited to pull a trailer, carry fuel and supplies while traversing backroads and other obstacles to get to safer grounds. Should have a class 5 hitch, roofrack, box cap and be reliable.
Camper Trailer: a self-contained home whose size is limited by bugout vehicles towing capacity. Home comforts while hauling supplies. Should also have roofrack, ladder, hitch,
Enclosed Trailer: keeps contents hidden. Extra storage with roofrack, side hooks and hitch racks. Size and capacity depends on tow vehicles limits. Can be towed by motorhome or bug-out vehicle.
Tent Trailer: a self-contained home providing essential needs while hauling supplies to a new local. Hides contents inside from prying eyes. Should have substantial roofrack to carry more. Towed by bug-out vehicle.
Storage Pod: enclosed, lockable, mounts on roofracks. Can be transferred to trailers, etc as needs required
Dirtbike: quiet reliable 4 stroke, 250-500 cc. Add rear rack, saddlebags, rifle mount bracket. Used for scouting resources economically. Stores in enclosed trailer.
Bicycles: mountain bike equipped with saddlebags, headlight, front and rear racks, hitch, and locks.
Bicycle Trailer: consists of a light framework with removable wheels (for easy storage) which should be interchangeable to bicycles if so required. Fasteners for storage pod even.
The above transportation was listed in a specific order so one could imagine falling back to the next mode if the situation required. You should be able to find a start point for your present situation and work from there down when preparing a fallback plan. To have to resort to any backup plan of a lesser mode is likely to inflict drastic loss of supplies and therefore drastically reduce your chances too. But not to consider such measures is an even worse measure when planning.
If I missed mention of anything you feel should be included, feel free to offer suggestions as this is how wrinkles get ironed out!
Knuckle,
Love the article, especially the first 3 points. A few things I never though of and a few I will have to pass to the family.
Thanks also for proposing some options of bug out vehicles. First, I must say that I'm not a believer in bugging out in the traditional sense often romanticized in the Preppers' sphere : heading to the hills with camping gear isn't a survival plan in my opinion, you are simply becoming a refugee. But getting out of a localized troubled area, say flood or wildfire, has always been a concern for me, to that extent, I've considered vehicles like you have listed above and debated getting some kind of an RV. I was however concerned that motor home or large RVs also come a major drawback : loss of mobility. If stuck on a major highway gridlock, you wouldn't be able to jump the median to turn around (or travel on deserted opposing traffic lanes...) and you also greatly increase your fuel consumption. Though, I have to admit that in the events listed above, being able to park your RV somewhere is much better than being stuck living with 500 people in a high school gym.
Again, thanks for contributing the post!
I too am not for the bug out plan for the same reason. Only a forest fire in my area would justify such a thought. Yet all my kids live in the city today. I was just entering Calgary when the flood waters were starting in Calgary. I saw that the water treatment facility off Deerfoot & Peigan Trail would be submerged within 1/2 hour. I called my kids and headed for supplies and gas. Gas stations in the South were already running out and grocery stores were emptying fast. Folks were still calm and while waiting in lineup, I recited that they should fill their bathtubs and plug their drains and toilets maybe. I noted lots were immediately phoning family with that advice.
I purchased a 83 Class A 27 ft diesel RV a few years back for $5,000.00 and it came filled with $500 of diesel and propane, a good class 5 hitch, along with a 5000 watt Onan generator. The thing I like about the Class A is that they have fiberglass siding instead of aluminum. They are better sealed from the elements and less likely to leak due to aluminum oxidizes and wroughts out like metal rusting over that many years. Most RV's have few miles on them so check them out. I've converted 2 buses into RV's in my life and couldn't come close to getting so much for so little. The Bluebirds are a "B1tch in the ditch" though and can go where many 4x4's do without needing a push.
I am not one who likes the "lock and load" mentality and stress to my kids that they need to head my way at first signs of trouble because leaving late carries too many repercussions. (if it's nothing, they had a nice visit....)When food runs out in the city, so does many folks logic. Road rage is just a daily occurrence, and yet nothing compared to a possible real life and death scenario. Country folk would likely first try to work together but most city folk are pre-programmed another way. Being among the first to leave means you beat the gridlock of a mass exit and you won't have to witness the ugly side of things if control can't be maintained. I've stressed to my kids the need for extra fuel stored away and a 72 hr BOB. Having spent some of their youth in the bush has taught them that preparation goes along way as mistakes in the winter here can cost you your life.
I agree that human nature is to head for high ground. Most don't even consider what they'll do when they get there. You need to plan ahead and work the plan for bugs every now and then because nothing stays the same forever. And you need to present enough confidence that others will follow your lead instead of challenging your judgement. In this way, I hope that these precautions enable both myself and my family to make it through life without having to consider taking anothers life along the way.
With all these floods of late , I am starting to think we need to add a row boat
to our bug in supplies in case we have to bug out using the row boat.
Or stay bugged in , floating in the rowboat .
I have also wondered if a huge RV might be a target ?
This website has some interesting roof top tents, such that you could use a 4x4 or similar off road vehicle and get off
the congesting main road, and go almost anywhere , which would be harder to do with an RV ?
Another idea is to have a couple smaller camper trailers that you would travel in a family group ?
There are definitely more combinations than those I've mentioned. The roof top tents don't do much for me because you can't do the quick exit until it is stowed.(and do you pack up camp to go get something quick in peacetime).
Tent trailers are cheap($200-$500max) and even cheaper if old as the tent begins to wrought. Not to panic...I saw a tent trailer converted to solid walls made from 1/4" plywood. They were connected/disconnected with removable hinge pins and folded inwards. I would make them fixed instead and add a wood stove. You now have a secure enclosed camp trailer for dirt cheap.
When buying a tent, I try to pick only those that are green as a first priority or at least have a green fly to cover with. Then keep on hand some flat black paint so to camo and break up it's shape if the need to blend in ever become a necessity. I do the same thing as a rule of thumb when buying tarps for covering anything. Add camo paracord($5 at crappy tire) to put in every BOB you got.
As for the RV being more of a target...? Obviously it would be of envy to all those who didn't have one(as it likely is even now)! But you get to haul more crap and that likely means a better defense arsenal too. The more attention you draw, the more trouble you invite! Don't paint your RV or truck camo as that's just waving a flag that your a prepper. Camo is only required to hide yourself when in the bush, otherwise it has the reverse affect.
Here is the pic of the tent trailer I'd mentioned above.
Now I re-awoke this thread as an earlier mention regarding folks who are living in apartments and such. I started thinking of folks who are presently in debt. If you don't own your home completely and lost your jobs in a failing economy, you too can easily become one of the homeless without having to fall too far. If you figure you have little or no extra funds to even start a fallback scenario, you might want to consider such as this............
There are old tent trailers that are often selling cheap as the canvas has wroughted and therefore the unit will fall apart. Yet where else can you get all the components included for just $200-$300 dollars? Even without the canvas, you still have a trailer with cupboards, beds, mattresses and sometimes even a propane stove and/or fridge. By removing the canvas and replacing them with just plywood as shown here, it is now a secure camper for any emergency. An emergency home for that "just in case" scenario and otherwise a holiday camper or a place to store your extra crap.
I didn't build this one but am still inspired by the simplicity of the idea. I would still have built in fold down beds for expandability and added a roof rack too. Adding even 1" blue SM insulation would create a R-7.5 insulation factor for efficient heating in cold weather. A small investment for a sounder sleep in coming bad times. It just requires you to start looking for such deals and they'll come by soon enough.
