I am hearing and seeing that China is coming back on line so to speak. Vendors I buy from are expecting delivery again. Prices are up a bit. Alberta is getting hit hard still. I cant all blame it all on the virus, we had a good long run of boom times ( 2002ish- 2014, with a hiccup in 2008) and little went into our Heritage trust fund, in fact embarassingly little. As a province we pissed a lot of it away, and we are now hit with the effects of this virus on top of low oil prices. I would like to think that my province will smarten up and plot a more diverse path forward but no chance of that. I will settle for just hopping that more people themselves decide to build greater durability into there lives going forward.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.
I am leaning towards a full on depression
let’s look at debt and deficit we had during allegedly good times in Canada. The numbers being spent Now, at all levels are astronomical and being honest, there’s not a snowballs chance in hell we can pay it off. So government debt is in the stratosphere.
Private and business bankruptcies will be guaranteed to go up.
So let’s assume we are fiddling with this virus into the spring or summer of 21 Open up maybe in part, then whoops, need to close down for a month or so... impossible to say but I am going with that scenario. But let’s just say for arguments sake and this hypothesis, this end for Christmas of 20. How much more government and private sector debt will be added to the near daily or weekly announcements ? 100, 200,400 billion in the next nine months or so. Easy to foresee.
Then there is the loss of investments on the stock exchange and all our personal and government investments in same!
We know that there are more and more people retiring these days and they will be drawing from the pool of purely borrowed money.
So during the balance of 2020 we will have nose bleed borrowing heights, unemployment that truth be told ( counting those no longer getting a cheque ( welfare as well) but still not employed) will likely be 25-35%, university students sitting at home and unable to go to university, graduates from the spring of 20 who never got a job in the summer, bankruptcies from the tens of thousands of small mom and pop businesses and people who have either maxed the credit card and can’t buy anymore or those still with a job but needing to either support a family member or just being scared and not buying the new lawn furniture or car, it will be very dire.
Look around the world and we see deaths and while it may be trending down a bit, it’s not evaporating. Then there are the nations under reporting! So will international travel start back up in December? It most certainly should not! So even in a cheery projection of canada being free from covid for Christmas, I still see an enormous segment of Canada’s business being pretty well shut down. Also, how long can governments who are paying out piddly amounts to private citizens, continue to pay government workers to sit at home! This is actually a very divisive situation that is building up out there. Government workers are fine and buddy in the public is on pogey and at some point this scab will be scratched.
I can see the government falling when they really reopen parliament and that as it has always done, will further freeze up private and public sector spending decisions. I can’t see oil prices going up to much because people will still be to a great extent, sitting at home looking at the snow fall on the car payments in the driveway.
Will food costs go up? Typically they have during previous shortages so guessing they will as well this time.
Now and this is something that could happen and of course with all the weird consequences that would follow. Will governments simply declare bankruptcy? Fine, some will say but this will mean ones government pension will be rewritten, inflations, shortage of goods............ to far fetched? I don’t think so. I always pay attention to people’s faces and what they don’t say, are not asked by reporters etc. I see fear on their faces and I do t think it’s only related to nursing home deaths. They know the numbers and those numbers are not being talked about. It’s all shovel this scoop out here, another bucket to this group or that. But the overall financial costs and how it will be handled in the future? Not a tiny covid whisper.
Apologize for long read and appearing to be Debbie downer but as one who try’s to be honest in ones assessments, I think it’s important that like we do when calculating calorie intake and planning our larder accordingly, we do the same with the nations finances. In short, we are in and will be in an enormous financial mess and it will entangle and hit many sectors.
So per another topic on this board, garden like crazy! Save the few dollars one has and batten down the hatches because this nightmare ain’t over for a very, very long time and maybe not even in our lifetime. The financial impact is enormous and a only question at all, is how will it play out and be spun.
Here’s a fun one. Imagine you and your wife are sitting at home laid off and you go out for groceries
And your twenty five K limit has been cut down to 15 and your at 14,950.00.
Fun times at the cash register or gas station when that happens!
Of course they will be cutting back limits, they know they will be on the hook when all the people start declaring bankruptcy. Goi g to get unpleasant t out there in next few months, mighty unpleasant
On my drive into Edmonton yesterday on the radio was a discussion about the effects of the shut down on home prices and the guy from the realter association was saying that the effects could be as much as a 25% drop in house prices for the Edmonton area, with out a chance of returning back to existing pricing levels until at least 2022 or 2023.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.
Heres what I think is a clue. Went into local town to get stuff and drove on a back road for first time in a month. Decent mid income homes and normally all kept neat. 80% of the lawns were not cut once since the snow left! ditches looked like they hadn’t seen a whipper sniper since last fall. Now, people are at home and if working in town are not going out on weekend so I am guessing. They have issues with Lawn tractor and simply can’t afford to have it fixed? I can’t think of any other viable excuse.
With debt loads, it’s impossible to have salaries cut or none at all and maintain all your stuff. Even the cars in the driveway looked forlorn. It really impressed me and I said “oh snap”
if we get a second wave, there will be some serious new pain coming down.
Heres what I think is a clue. Went into local town to get stuff and drove on a back road for first time in a month. Decent mid income homes and normally all kept neat. 80% of the lawns were not cut once since the snow left! ditches looked like they hadn’t seen a whipper sniper since last fall. Now, people are at home and if working in town are not going out on weekend so I am guessing. They have issues with Lawn tractor and simply can’t afford to have it fixed? I can’t think of any other viable excuse.
If you drove by my house (long detour...), I apologize for my grass! My lawn mower is just fine and I make my payments on everything without trouble. I’ve just been ridiculously busy around the garden, my work and homeschooling. But to not lose face with everyone on what could be perceived as poor time management, I explain I adhere to “No Mow May” for the bees.
But... Garden and expansions are almost done, so I should be able to get the grass and ditch done this weekend!
In our area there are loads of homes for sale and it has been that way for over a year now, due to economy, companies moving and oilfield shutdowns. Fortunately, last week we received an offer (after a year on the market) for my Mom's house. Not totally a lowball one, but definitely lower that what was listed. We did accept it, just to be able to finish the estate.
Heres what I think is a clue. Went into local town to get stuff and drove on a back road for first time in a month. Decent mid income homes and normally all kept neat. 80% of the lawns were not cut once since the snow left! ditches looked like they hadn’t seen a whipper sniper since last fall. Now, people are at home and if working in town are not going out on weekend so I am guessing. They have issues with Lawn tractor and simply can’t afford to have it fixed? I can’t think of any other viable excuse.
If you drove by my house (long detour...), I apologize for my grass! My lawn mower is just fine and I make my payments on everything without trouble. I’ve just been ridiculously busy around the garden, my work and homeschooling. But to not lose face with everyone on what could be perceived as poor time management, I explain I adhere to “No Mow May” for the bees.
But... Garden and expansions are almost done, so I should be able to get the grass and ditch done this weekend!
While that may be your case, I can see the homes I drove by and they have no gardens. It isn’t home schooling as one of my children is working from home and still Easily manages two children’s needs, lawn is perfect, as is the small garden they made this spring, firewood brought in from the five large maples I cut down, opened their pool,stained decks... so... I stand by my guess that something is fishy with people being unable to perform simple lawn care. One family, two, three... not being on top of things can occur but dozens in one small five minute drive, nope! My good wife threw out depression as a possibility and I can see that. People just in a big funk.
So let’s say it’s financial or depression, either isn’t good and if it’s only the first inning of a three inning game, then it isn’t looking good rusty! I love profiling and have to say I am pretty decent at it, it’s a skill set everyone who is trying to be self sufficient should try and Learn. It can mean life or death.
I find it’s getting stranger and stranger out there.
I follow the stock market and while it’s always been the far west, a con game and lottery, the hype and manipulation is even worse these days. Pump and dump going on with 300, 500,900 swings per day in the Dow and all on really no new news of importance or significant change. The impact to people’s, corporate and government pension plans is huge and few people are even talking about it. Everyone is focused on some dopey cloth mask Or standing six feet away but then go and pickup food that one has no idea on its being safe, it’s just made up nonsense.
Companies are continuing to lay off, companies are saying they aren’t rehiring all those they let go, salaries are apparently dropping for those being rehired.
I have been out to a few stores in past week and as an ex business owner, there’s not a snowballs chance in hell retail can fill a store with maybe 25% of their capacity and pay utilities and all the extra staff they now have wiping down carts etc. Restaurents will still need to pay rent, heat, power and any debts they have on equipment, still need cooks and even more cleaning staff, yet if and when they reopen, they will only be able to fill to 25% capacity! No business can do that and survive beyond their line of credit or savings.
Our minister of finance refuses to answer questions on debt, asset values.... no kidding, if he did, some people would clue into the depth we are in right now. Imagine (try) where we will be this time next year if we get even a repeat of this, let alone increased second and third waves numbers!
Not trying to be dramatic here, I am actually chuckling because I find it hilarious that no one in the opposition or the media are talking about this. The debt numbers on personal, Corp and government Debts are enormous and no one is really talking about it. Lower GDP, increased unemployment, which unless there’s a miracle, will lead to welfare after a year on pogey!
When unemployment runs out next spring for even half of those “currently” laid off, will their benefits be extended and how will that be paid? Then there “may be” the new unemployed this fall and winter. Companies with a good bank roll,may not be able to keep paying people to work from home and maybe work 50% of the time.
Besides the obvious impact to us with loss of a job, we can expect a number of side effects and these are all well known within certain communities and are.
Civil unrest.
Cheap counterfeit goods.
increased crime and the growth in power by organized crime within communities, As the government fails to protect areas, organized crime fills the void in protection and procurement of goods. ( currently happening in South America).
Increased drug use and cheaper more powerful drugs will come on the market.
Reduced police and other emergencies services.
Quick and radical changes in government and loose coalitions.
Strikes and subsequent impact to delivery of goods.
Increased illegal immigration
Reduced medical services.
Increased taxes will lead to exodus of those able to leave and further impact the economy
Lower salaries as employers have bigger bargaining power.
You will see employee fraud increase, kickbacks from contractors looking to get work from those in purchasing or contracts award process will increase.
Likely increase in terrorism as well as increase in support from within communities. Terrorism is partially funded by criminal Activity and even when not, they make use of organized crime transport, money laundering, entry and exit from countries etc
Increased insurance rates as a result of theft, fire, vandalism.. will mean some can no longer afford a policy and will shut down a business.
Less maintenance due to lower funding on critical infrastructure will result in increased accidents, which again impact towns and cities in numerous ways. Also increases distrust and aggravation with whatever government happens to be in charge that six month period!
Then there are foreign wars that further suck at human and financial resources.
Decreased spending On healthcare or burnout of medical practitioners leads to increased spread of disease or slows treatment of it.
On line purchase will increase pressure on brick and mortar stores and will result in increased layoffs. Courier trucks will become targets of thieves.
Animosity between those with government jobs and those without will cause friction within families, neighborhoods and at election time. Imagine the impact on society between government workers versus private sector during an election, one has a job and pension but the others do not.
Towns and cities may face bankruptcy and that will hit city pensions, again lower services and in the case of fire department, will cause home and business fire insurance rates to increase.
LOTS and LOTS more. Trust me, this isn’t some scare tactic, this is simply Very well known and discussed scenarios / reality. It’s why I knew we would have supply chain issues and all the other ones that are not being discussed but are occurring right this instant. It’s not at all being pessimistic or doom and gloom. It’s simple logic and while there are millions of angles or degrees of pain, the simple fact is, the chain is a long one and when links start to weaken or break, other links hanging off the main chain also break under new pressures. The other factor is while people rush in ( in the case of the government, slowly walk backwards to the problem) three more links have broken And it Quickly becomes overwhelming.
The riots we see in the states right now, while initially a response to one incident, are Also the Result of old Issues and I would say Covid. As summer temps climb, will we see more riots? I would guess yes. Can the same occur up here in Canada? I would also guess a firm yes.
As I say, all known issues and discussed for decades, just like the recommendations to have masks.........but people chose to think rainbows and lollipops and ignore Reality and sound advice.
Tien ta tuque. Or hold onto your hat.
I can’t talk about other industries or global trends but I can talk about my area.
I work in MTL and specialize in hvac equipment.
This summer will kill companies. There is 0 stock availability for heating/ air conditioning units and parts.
Freon is sold out at all suppliers.
I am currently turning away people and work daily due to a lack of supplies.
Suppliers and manufacturers are saying we won’t be seeing deliveries north of the border for months. The Canadian market is too small to justify diverting equipment from US markets.
Nagol, thanks for inside angle on your industry. Makes perfect sense and there’s no doubt the same thing will apply to other business sectors. I said it some time ago, the US manufacturers will naturally and rightly so, keep product down there for domestic use. Same for food. One can be upset, but one can’t or shouldn’t be surprised! I love Americans and hold no ill will towards their desire to take care of their own.
In fact, it’s a perfect and much needed reminder on reality. We all need to take care of ourselves and our own. It’s not greedy, self centered, racist or any trope people wish to throw around. Obviously there are the sick, physically or mentally challenged and they deserve our full support but able bodied people or nations? That’s on them to get their stuff together.
Because there’s large amounts of money to be made, Everyone needs to keep an eye out for counterfeit goods and sadly even medicines. I have seen the quality of the product and outside appearance often looks better then real stuff. Organized crime has the money to buy new pill presses and their pills look better. A couple of things to do. If the price or availability is too good to be true, it may be a sign! Look at labeling on box or package, they still make spelling mistakes, BUTTTTT, they are getting better with their English! When it comes to contractors, it’s a harder thing to control. A product may be sold to a distributor and the contractor won’t know if it’s a counter or transformer, fan... and same for home owner or business. Trust in your supplier and the other tell tail signs are almost all you have to rely upon and the old and accurate adage of “ if it too good to be true...”
So I think it’s safe to say, buy things when you can and store away. Speaking for myself, it has cost me a bundle but I try and and only buy what I know I will need or consume for next year or so. Next big purchase will likely be batteries, have a few that are three plus years old now And another winter on them will be about it, but I keep them as back ups for boosting or to be used with power inverters for electronics. Have some boat batteries that are nine to ten years old now, not able to d9 the job on the boat but if I wanted them to power a radio, TV or charge up a cell... they will do the job.
Good luck Nagol and to all the trades people needing supplies to help their customers
I was driving up to the big city from the south today, thought I would swing into Nisku and have a look. It looks quiet, the fab shops running look to be running single shifts (no night shifts) and lightly maned. What really struck me was all the hotels built in Nisku/Leduc area for servicing the Airport. I kid you not I could count the cars in the parking lot of any one of them on the fingers of one or two hands.Big hotels/motels looking like they are sitting empty. I don't think they could be earning enough to pay for their cleaning staff....It doesn't appear that travel is ramping up.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.
I went to my local hardware/slash feed store, I wanted a few things and one of those things included chicken wire.. I had just used up the last of our "hold back rolls" and wanted to replace them..
Go look no chicken wire in the normal place.. nothing.. look for a few other things.. most are out, but I grab a few extras on my list.. go to the till, I said, any idea when chicken wire coming back in.. guy blinks at me and says do you have a account with us, and I am like yes and give him info..
Looks at computer and says, ah yes, here you are.. I think maybe we might have a roll or two in the back.. I can check for you and I say, thanks.. he calls out.. how many you want, and I am like 3 if you have it.. he comes back with three rolls.. smiles at me and says, here you go..
Now I smile back and say, I am also looking for x and y.. and he says, ya those are really popular.. how many you want and so I answer and says, limit of 2 on that but other yes.. wait here and back he goes to bring them out..
I pay and just kinda softly go.. so things been selling out real fast and hard huh.. and he grins at me and say o ya.. people from out of the area have been coming out to try and buy things out.. but don't worry we have our locals and account members backs..
I did the "why thank you fine gentleman" on the outside and inside I was "WTF"..
I mean they are selling out so they are not losing sales and it means locals are being able to get what they need and really its not ok that from away folks want to come in and buy truckloads of things but at the same time.. WTF.. wow..
That's a grey zone for sure
http://livingmydreamlifeonthefarm.wordpress.com/
farmgal, in many respects it is a WTF grey zone. While you and anyone in that situation benefit and i can see why ( protect the locals), it does speak to other issues going on/ a serious shortage of stuff.
if city folks or other regions are out scouring the countryside looking to buy chicken wire it poses a lot of questions. why the shortage? Made in china?, plant in Alabama shut or on reduced production? Metal shortage? transport?.........
Per a post i made i think back in Feb about Asians buying up N95 mask. was it as they said, for the family back home, OR was it future hawking of hard to find items?
once people see a shortage, a wise entrepreneur would go and acquire as much as they could afford and sell it later.
It's why i can easily see ration books for food, IFFFF corona beer/ Wuhan flue hits again this fall. People are really going to start gaming the system and if riots at the stores are to be avoided, it will require ration cards.
I can’t talk about other industries or global trends but I can talk about my area.
I work in MTL and specialize in hvac equipment.
This summer will kill companies. There is 0 stock availability for heating/ air conditioning units and parts.
Freon is sold out at all suppliers.
I am currently turning away people and work daily due to a lack of supplies.Suppliers and manufacturers are saying we won’t be seeing deliveries north of the border for months. The Canadian market is too small to justify diverting equipment from US markets.
We are seeing delays as companies start back up accross North America. Several mechanical firms are facing similar issues. And its not just them. Electrical, heck even things like commercial wood doors, etc. are all pushed back months. It was interesting to find out how much actual manufacturing in Quebec occurs that affects the construction industry. Most commercial wood doors, stage and stage curtains, electrical distribution, etc. When Quebec shut down, it basically shut down those components on many projects in Ontario. We won't see some of those items until November now.
https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738