There is a main thing that is different from the 80s. Pre 80s growth wasn't driven by Chinese growth. 2008 was about the bursting of the Derivatives market bubble. 20015 is about the bursting of the Chinese Growth bubble. "Demand Destruction" is the phrase to remember. Oil Sands and fracking was sort of a mental illness like being bipolar. Now that alberta is forced back onto its meds...depression follows...and a long evaluation of the damage caused during the manic phase. I don't know about you, but there is not a single place in alberta that I would be willing to drink well water.

But that's a different subject.

I keep getting reminded of earlier posts I did on what a Slow Crash looks like as opposed to a fast crash. It was theoretical then. Its not so theoretical now in the new normal that people are "getting used to". I've heard people that never heard of a slow crash using terms like a stealth crash. Ive been looking for better, more appropriate terms. Kaleidoscope crash is what comes to mind.

" the end of cheap energy, the decline of industrial agriculture, currency collapse, economic "depression," wars, famines, disease epidemics, infrastructure failures, and extreme unpredictable weather.
If that's all we get, the crash will be slower and more complex than the kind of people who predict crashes like to predict. It won't be like falling off a cliff, more like rolling down a rocky hill. There won't be any clear before, during, or after"

There is a main thing that is different from the 80s. Pre 80s growth wasn't driven by Chinese growth. 2008 was about the bursting of the Derivatives market bubble. 20015 is about the bursting of the Chinese Growth bubble. "

for Alberta in all the time I have been here oil price is all that matters, what sends it up or down doesn't mater much, I have seen it all...and will again... I am a big fan of the down times, bought my first property in the crash of the early 80s. CMHC was repossesing so many homes it seemed like they owned half of Edmonton at the time, and they were desperate to sell them. I bought one and wound up with mortgage payments less than the rent I was paying at the time, its not like that yet, may not get like that, but its getting rough for some.
Was in Ponoka today, and it seemed quiet in the stores, Leduc seemed busy in the stores, but when I hit Edmonton it was quiet again...people are hanging on to cash. It will be a quiet Christmas for retailers, though I heard on the news the rest of Canada is out of Recession, must be true!

There will be trouble. When trouble and how much trouble, who knows. We live in the financial crisis 2008-2015 and counting. The Central Banks still have the global economies on life support, with artificially low interest rates and money creation. Of course, every thinking person knows that's a problem. The creation of money doesn't create wealth. It has always ended badly. Of course, the way to protect family wealth is through real assets, be it precious metals or farmland. We can hope and pray the problems start later than sooner. I don't want my previous metal holdings to "go up" in value. The day they start truly going up, is the day the true underlying problems are recognized. That won't be a happy time for anyone. Especially not for those with retirement funds tied up in government debt. A rural retreat is a smart thing to have.

Up to the big city today, lunch with friends....one laid off, one a car salesman, one a realestate agent, Car and truck sales are way down, homes arnt getting offers, viewings are way down....my friend who a year ago had head hunters calling him, hasn't had a response from any prospective employers....I have seen adds where a free months rent is offered with a 1 year lease...I haven't seen that since about 86.....went to Sherwood park and on baseline road, prime commercial properties sitting empty....

Up to the big city today, lunch with friends....one laid off, one a car salesman, one a realestate agent, Car and truck sales are way down, homes arnt getting offers, viewings are way down....my friend who a year ago had head hunters calling him, hasn't had a response from any prospective employers....I have seen adds where a free months rent is offered with a 1 year lease...I haven't seen that since about 86.....went to Sherwood park and on baseline road, prime commercial properties sitting empty....

That is what $36 / barrel will do to an oil-driven economy that failed to diversify during good times. I grew up in gold-rich northwest Quebec where people go from brand new tricked up enormous pick up trucks (with matching new Skidoos in the back) to food back clients based solely on the price of gold. My 9 years in AB were a sore reminder of my childhood. Nonetheless, this is still better than my current "neck of the woods" in south east USA where the economy is deplorable yet people everywhere live on credit. Banks (private businesses) will eagerly finance your used 5 year old Kia over 10 years at 7% for you.

I woke up this morning to the news of a couple armed robberies at macs stores over night....I completely forgot about crime stats, people losing their homes in the early 80's did the same thing, there was a period where it seemed every news cast reported a armed robbery of sometype.....I think it was 82, maybe 83 and I had taken a job on the night shift of a mac's store....I was robbed at knife point..it was stupid back then, even stupider now when 50-60 bucks is what? a carton of smokes.

If interest rates swing up it will get ugly(er) fast, exponentaly so. 2016 is going to be real interesting...There are lots of people with 40 year mortgages on 450,000 homes that they just barely are making payments on.

I hate to kick people when they are down...well, that's not quite right. My third martial arts instructor said, "The only time I would try to kick someone in the head...is if they were on the ground".

But I recall saying in previous posts, An economic collapse does not mean you get to put on the combat gear and a bug out bag and shoot bad guys while looting the walmart for canned goods and penicillin.

It means you lose the wife, the house, the truck...not particularly in that order.

Its means suicides are the order of the day...because most people cant face the idea that homelessness is too good for them...or that somehow its a moral failure. Everything I have tried to write since getting here is to help people psychologically adapt to that new reality. Its the end result...but its not an judgement of your worth...and its not the end of the world.

Either way, the world noticed and it has been written about on many news sources. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicide-rate-alberta-increase-layoffs-1.3353662

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/albertas-suicide-rates-are-up-30-percent-amid-oil-patch-crisis

etc.
Drinking and drug related deaths will be the next related spike...if we continue the usual historical collapse model. Stay tuned.

Here is my word of encouragement. Don't eat your gun. All that "Stuff" is "Fluff". Losing your Stuff is not the end. It just means you will change. The "Real" Survivors can survive homelessness. The sun will still rise. You can still find meaning. It will just be "Different". I've been there. I'm still here.

Did you think you were somehow inherently different than Syrian Refugees...Or East Van Junkies.
You wake up and take a breath. After a few years, you will have accumulated some cool stories of survival you can share around a campfire.

Still not going away. Even CBC is saying oil will go into the 20s

But this....This even gives me the creeps and I don't creep easily. https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750 😯

And this is why I try not to creep easily. Sorry folks. I got some bad info and mistakenly passed it on. It happens occasionally. This should clear it up-

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2016/01/investigating-claims-north-atlantic.html 😳

Still not improving of course with oil and natural gas where it is, and the eastern provinces putting up a stink about pipelines. Or as we like to call it, "access to tide-water".

CAODC is reporting 100,000 lost jobs in the sector nationally, yet Bombardier want another billion to protect a few thousand jobs in voter-rich Quebec. The logic is baffling.

Still not improving of course with oil and natural gas where it is, and the eastern provinces putting up a stink about pipelines. Or as we like to call it, "access to tide-water".

CAODC is reporting 100,000 lost jobs in the sector nationally, yet Bombardier want another billion to protect a few thousand jobs in voter-rich Quebec. The logic is baffling.

C'mon Dang, those 2200 QC jobs are important to Canada! Money well spent, I'd say. And didn't the Feds hand over $250 million to Notley to rebuild Alberta's economy?

On a more serious note - The 2008 correction was a small bump in the road for the energy sector in Alberta. This time around has been much tougher here, and for way more people. I would send a shout out to Knuckles if he were still around as he called it and I wasn't buying it. 😳 I don't really know why, but I'm still really busy. My staff is busy and we are not looking at lay offs. I am looking at work further afield though. Mrs. Antsy is awfully nervous though. I am having to remind her that the larder is full, the bills all paid, and that there are many who are in worse shape for not preparing for this sort of thing.

Still not improving of course with oil and natural gas where it is, and the eastern provinces putting up a stink about pipelines. Or as we like to call it, "access to tide-water".

CAODC is reporting 100,000 lost jobs in the sector nationally, yet Bombardier want another billion to protect a few thousand jobs in voter-rich Quebec. The logic is baffling.

Interesting note....Bombardier the company on endless federal support is a private family company...The shares traded on the exchange are not voting shares, the family retains the class of voting shares that keep company control in their hands. as a result few large serious investers are interested in investing in the company, much as you would expect, after all would you invest money in a company, and be happy not to have a say in its activities and howb your money is spent so as a result when it cant raise money, where does it look? to the government! If it wants federal money then the family should be forced to surrender control of the company.

Quebec will be happy to take a pipeline once they have negotiated a "cut"

Headed up to Nisku today, pulled out last year about this time and I had a shock returning........Its not yet 1982, but the trajectory is bad. What a difference a year makes, and Ugly is the best way to put it.
Most every one has broken their leases, or renegotiated the rent, commercial bays leasing for half of last years rates (asking price), many negotiating rental rates down to 1/3 of what they were paying last year. bay after bay empty and still new shops being built/finished. the over suppy is stunning..From those with more info than I, the thought is the bottom has not been found, and may not be this year, the hope is next year things find the bottom and flat line there for a while before things climb north again. I don't think a new job could be found in Nisku right now.
I didn't see any philipenoes working the Mac Donalds (temporary foreign workers), just us pailer looking guys, and that's too bad, I so much liked getting my order right the first time.
will haul a load of scrap metal to the scrap yard Friday and talk with the guys there.

Ya, I was in Nisku for a meeting last Thursday, and even though it was leading into the Easter long weekend... it was dead quiet.

We are not seeing a recovery until 2017 either and we have ears in most of the 6 big associations: CAPP, CAODC, PSAC, etc.

no one has a positive sentiment to share.

Well I should update this from my last years posts.....My observation, and from those I speak with the concensus is the worst is over ( for business).They tightened there belts starting 2 years back, a little at first, then a lot. The big layoffs are done, the big projects/expansions shelved, extra leased space has been let go, invertories and staffing levels rationalized.Idle equipment sold. Doesnt mean there happy but are ticking over and holding on. If you have a job now your likely to keep it.
For those who have been let go....well this is the year the bulk will have there unemployment ins run out. some lucky ones maybe the insurance will run into next year, but run out it will. They to will have to rationalize costs. I have seen more shared housing, people renting out a room in there house, to help make up the difference in lost overtime pay that once helped pay the mortgage. 2 or 3 People renting a apartment together to cut costs....People are a little slower to respond than business, but are getting there.

This has been the 2nd worse slow down I have seen, I thought we were on a trajectory to match the 82,84/85 period but its not going to happen.
Jingle mail has been the exception not the rule, condo prices took a hit, home prices not so much, and sales are ticking along again, though time on market is a little longer. Homes are still being built on spec, infact from the west end of Edmonton to the east side whole subdivisions are being built on spec, and selling. Alberta through it all is still gaining in population, and attracting the skilled
I did some rural traveling and from what I see, I predict maybe a bumper crop of everything, agriculture is on target for maybe a record year. I am sure there is going to be some new model pickups sold when the crops come in.
The only thing I see causing continuing damage now is this provincial government that can only think of more taxes and spending...We survived the low oil price, but can we survive this tax, spend and regulate government??