French weather channel Meteo is forecasting a temperate summer in Europe.

"Cold maritime fronts and weak solar activity during the winter months, followed by cooler trends that have hit Spain during spring, are also going to make the summer months unusually cooler and rainy. June and July are forecast to have short periods of summer heat, and August is likely to see heavy storms.
They do, however, forecast that September and October are likely to have higher average temperatures with less rain, so it may just be a late summer."

Four fifths of the earth's most cultivable land is in Europe and N. America. If both were hit simultaneously with bad harvests, it would be a serious blow to global food stocks.

A historic precedent of this was the year 1816, which was known as "the year without a summer". Dust and ash from exceptional volcanic activity in the Indian Ocean had been thrust into the upper atmosphere, blocking sufficient sunlight to cause cooling of the earth.

France, England, Ireland and the US experienced overcast skies and cold temperatures, leading to severe crop failures and food shortages during the summer months of 1816. The Irish potato crop failed, and Europe experienced shortages of bread. Between May and September southern Quebec was affected by a series of cold waves which killed crop and led to near famine conditions in some parts. During one such cold spell between June 6th and 10th 30-36cms snow lay on the ground in Quebec City.

In 1816, the entire population of earth amounted to less than 1 billion. In the event of generally lowered harvests today, more than 7 billion people would be affected.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/351008

http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/yearnosummer.html

All very grim news reported here, with lots of shocking photos.

Has anyone looked into the land available for cultivation compared to 50 or 100 years ago vs. today. The Yield per acre of land today vs. 50 years ago, and also in relation to the population of today vs. earlier generations......and probably most importantly the ability of food distribution around the world today compared to previous generations?

'yes, as a matter of a fact I have studied those things quite a bit Crowns own, I own a number of books, and I do a number of small trails on my own land comparing crop yields done by hand and by draft power compared to what the average yields are with the machines, comparing high producing heritage crops to GMO crops etc

We have so, so much unused land in the USA and Canada that its amazing, if folks understood what they could do with their land, compared to what they do with it, the amount of food that could be produced and worked on a small food scale is mind boggling.

'yes, as a matter of a fact I have studied those things quite a bit Crowns own, I own a number of books, and I do a number of small trails on my own land comparing crop yields done by hand and by draft power compared to what the average yields are with the machines, comparing high producing heritage crops to GMO crops etc

We have so, so much unused land in the USA and Canada that its amazing, if folks understood what they could do with their land, compared to what they do with it, the amount of food that could be produced and worked on a small food scale is mind boggling.

What have you found? Do you have any numbers on yield, and production..and most importantly (i think, i may be wrong) is food distribution. And what about cross bred plants? Are GMO in big enough production to be counted yet?

I agree with you re: unused land....but on the flip side of that, I think its a bit mind boggling how so much of our best farm land is now under urban sprawl and cityscape in Southern Ontario. Its nothing to grow alarmed at re: food production...and hind sight is 20/20 but to build over the most fertile land in Ontario, and some of the best in Canada seems a bit...odd...

In regards to what I have I found? Need more detail back on that, but one of the things I find personally very interesting is that the average allotment in many area's is pretty much equal to a typical yard in size, and that they manage to not only grow and feed in many cases larger families then what we typically have, but also tend to have a little extra always to sell or barter to the local's.

You would have to ask a certain question on what crop, what zone its grown in, what the average rain count is, was it dry land planted, standarded crop planted, interplanted, food forest planted, hugelcutlured and the list goes on to try and compare numbers on yield and production.. but to be honest if you do want to start googling, I often find that Germany, Russia has some of the best studies going on being able to step back and find that old fashioned information but in up to date stats..

Elderberries is a great example, they are a N.A. fruit, and were taken from N.A. back to the old world, here most folks don't think much of them yet, (well the Saskatoon university is starting to work on them) but in Germany and Russia, o my god the studies done on them are amazing, the growth rates, the charts the amazing detail of how they work, what can be done with them, they are a huge massive crop in both countries.

As for food Distribution, again, looking to the old world countries, you get a much better idea of how a still small local eco-system works, in Canada, we are both hampered by the laws and at the same time, there is a small but ever growing movement of local food, you just need to look.. as an example, our local permaculture, it is three years old only, the first time they held a event, it was busy a hundred plus, last year, they sold out at 300 over six weeks before the event and had to turn away another 300 plus is what they said..

The local plant/edible food movement is so strong in my area that not only are the groups super active, they are doing things like creating plant libarys for the city folks, they are offering bi-monthly city forage training, monthly -forest forgage training, co-op style group ordering of things, monthly work bee- where you can gather at a few of the more active mens shops that they will share tool and help you build, cut, saw and bend tubing to get things done, plus montly plant swaps, and on top of that, the group and its members do active gurilla garden plots all across the city, parks and so, plus there are hundreds to thousands of pounds of food donated yearly to the local soup kitchens, so much of the harvest from the local community gardens is given per week.. Most of the folks are also active in the hidden harvest, which matches up interested folks, homeowners an the city to have the local wild or backyard fruit to harvested, 1/3rd goes to the pickers, 1/3rd goes to the local food banks/soup kitchens, and 1/3 goes to the program, where they take it and teach people how to preserve, can, freeze, and dry the food for year round use.

And that's just my little area, and we are newbies compared to many of the programs and projects that are taking place in many cities in this country.

Last year's drought in the U.S. has resulted in a loss of market share for U.S. farmers. Other countries have increased production and exports.

"In corn, the quest for fresh suppliers has fuelled the rise of Ukraine as a force in the grain, with a market share of world exports of 16% forecast for 2013-14, up from a 5.5% share two seasons ago." "Brazil has already overtaken the US as the major origin for Chinese soybean purchases."

http://www.agrimoney.com/feature/bumper-crops-wont-repair-all-the-damage-from-2012s-drought--214.html

"a broader spread of suppliers reduces the risk of being held to ransom by a single weather threat"

The food supply for 7-8 billion people is now dependent on a global system of production and delivery, and international exchange. To work effectively, the system of finance must remain sound. Wealth must be kept in motion to keep food in motion. Thoughts to keep in mind.

According to a recent study by the World Bank, “Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices,” oil prices are the biggest driver of higher food prices.

The study also paid special attention to two time periods: 1997-2004 and 2005-2007. Between the two time frames, the price of energy, fertilizers and precious metals tripled. In addition, most food prices doubled. Of all the drivers of food prices, crude oil prices had the biggest impact.

http://domesticfuel.com/2013/06/07/world-bank-crude-oil-biggest-driver-of-food-prices/

Forecast for 2013 Expected Price Increase, from Ottawa Public Health estimates

•Meat - 4.5 to 6.5%
•Fish & Seafood - 1.0 to 3.0%
•Dairy - 1.0 to 3.0%
•Eggs - 3.5 to 5.0%
•Grains - 1.4 to 2.7%
•Fruit & Nuts - 1.0 to 3.0%
•Vegetables - 1.0 to 3.0%
•Overall Food Expenditures - 1.5 to 3.5%

The rate at which a price will be double in ten years is 7%.

Thanks for that Ottawa613! Unfortunately for me, my income will be going down ......

California's central valley has been the number one food and agricultural producer in the United States for more than 50 consecutive years, supplying more than half of the fruits, nuts and vegetables sold in the U.S. and Canada.

At present, California is enjoying an era of pleasant climatic conditions, but this isn't the norm.

Beginning about 1,100 years ago, what is now California baked in two droughts, the first lasting 220 years and the second 140 years. Each was much more intense than the mere six-year dry spells that afflict modern California from time to time, new studies of past climates show. (the 1928 to 1934 'dust bowl' drought, and the more recent severe dry spell of 1987 to 1992.)

The findings suggest, in fact, that relatively wet periods like the 20th century have been the exception rather than the rule in California for at least the last 3,500 years, and that mega-droughts are likely to recur.

In medieval times, the California droughts (A.D. 892 to A.D. 1112 and from A.D. 1209 to A.D. 1350) coincided roughly with a warmer climate in Europe, which allowed the Vikings to colonize Greenland and vineyards to grow in England, and with a severe dry period in South America (which caused the collapse of that continent's most advanced pre-Inca empire, the rich and powerful state of Tiwanaku).

A North American mega-drought today, like those of medieval times, would impact the food supply of more than half a billion people, causing food prices to rise above the ability of people to pay.

http://www.nytimes.com/1994/07/19/science/severe-ancient-droughts-a-warning-to-california.html?pagewanted=all&src ="pm"

Very interesting information! thanks for sharing that..

My sign of the times
Twice in the last week at two different places one chip wagon and one grocery I have ended up in a conversation about 72 hour bags for family and more in depth prepping. What makes this so unbelievable is it was with total strangers and they were willing to share their growing conviction that something is going to happen soon.
A conversation about what is in the news was where both these topics came up and took very little if any steering in the direction of prepping.

Has any one else started to notice the changes in peoples attitudes of being prepared or even just the willingness to talk about it

Mule Skinner,

I find this very interesting, I have not gotten off the farm much over the past few weeks, so have not had the chance to just be visiting, but from what I am used to in general, two total strangers starting to talk about prepping in a line up, is indeed different.

I can't say that I have noticed a difference but I am just not out enough in the public to see it.. Hope other folks will chime in on what they are seeing in this regards as well..

I've actually been finding the opposite in the last few months. Or, more of a "switch".

I'm meeting and speaking with fewer folks who feel the need for 72hr bags and bug out vehicles/locations. But meeting many more who feel that the grinding rat-race isn't fulfilling or that cost of living is increasing at an unmanageable rate.

So there's more of a push towards co-op gardening & livestock raising and traditional self sufficient living.

I definitely think location, age and job security plays a big part in who and where you'll hear folks expressing concern.

More signs of the times - The recent upsurge in oil prices and disruptive weather events.

From the UK:

"According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) the 2020s show an increase in impacts from climate change globally. Although there are some positive impacts projected, the impacts are overwhelmingly negative, especially in South America, Africa and Australasia. By the 2050s the severity of impacts is projected to increase in most cases. Indeed, water scarcity and quality are projected to become worse in almost all regions with these trends likely to continue into the 2080s.

"You only need to look back to the Thai floods of 2011 to see the scale of the potential impact. Back then flooding resulted in the shutdown of at least half of the country’s hard disk drive (HDD) capacity, one quarter of global capacity resulting in a tripling in HDD prices.

"Recent food price spikes are attributed to a combination of short term shocks and structural issues. Analyses of the recent price volatility suggested that weather-related shocks triggered price increases but that the policy and political decisions (panic buying, export restrictions) amplified these increases. Currently global production, and as a consequence UK imports, of certain foodstuffs tend to be concentrated in a few countries. In the short-term (to the 2020s) extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change, are highly likely to increase volatility of prices and cause disruptions of supply."

http://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/UK-exposure-to-volatile-commodity-prices-to-intensify-on-climate-change.html

The volume and product composition of a country’s commodity trade determines its vulnerability to commodity price volatility. Political stability today, as it was in the times of the Romans, is highly dependent on reliable delivery of food and energy.

A city the size of Detroit going bankrupt
If that isn't a sign I sure don't know what is maybe it will make it easier to talk to some of the sheepl
I for one am glad to have a head start