Back in early September I wrote about all the signs that pointed to a second wave and concluded that the second wave of Covid-19 had begun with a 75% certainty. Now with cases in Quebec and Ontario rising to levels not seen since the height of the first wave, it is no longer a question. The second wave has begun.
I certainly can’t speak for the entire country as there are just too may figures to look up, but I can offer a perspective from what looks like will be the hardest hit province, Quebec.
There are a few noticable differences, at least so far, between these waves. First, and most notably is the death rate. Up until now, people simply aren’t dying in this second wave. Sure, there are a few, but nowhere near the death rate from the first round. Perhaps because Quebec saw where the issue was (senior residences) and fixed the problem by training ten thousand new workers. With staffing issues more or less resolved, and new employees being trained in infection control, the impact on seniors appears to have been resolved.
The second most visible difference is the age range where cases are being detected. This time, most cases are being found in those aged 20 – 59. This is an important detail as it represents almost the entirety of the work force.
Although deaths are down in a remarkable way, pulling close to a thousand people per day off the work force as they recover could be as much of an impact on the economy as the wide spread shut downs we saw in the spring.
So what can we expect from this second wave? I suspect more of the same as we saw in the first. Industry will be in danger of staffing issues, leading to shortages of any thing at any time. The hospitality industry will suffer as restrictions are put on restaurants and bars. Layoffs will be inevitable in this already hard hit economic contributor.
Health care expenses will rise. While we should be able to provide health care workers with sufficient PPE to safely do their jobs, the cost of these supplies will grow significantly as production has been switched from inexpensive sources such as China and transferred to local production where materials and labor cost more.
Travel restrictions will likely be put into place. Remember the roadblocks into certain regions during the first wave? It is almost a certainty that we will see this again. I have little doubt that inter regional and possibly inter county travel will be restricted to those that “need” to do it, namely the transport or goods, and those that need to commute to and from work.
Here in Quebec, the government has vowed not to impose province wide restrictions, concentrating instead on hot spots as they arise. I am not convinced that this strategy will work out any better since the current hot spots are the large economic hubs of the province, namely Montreal and Quebec City.
Just to add to all the problems we are already facing, let’s not forget that we are about to experience the start of the seasonal flu. With symptoms being similar, there are a few things to consider. Those with seasonal flu symptoms are likely to seek Covid testing, placing a strain on the system and blocking up testing facilities. Even if we can find a way to easily and quickly differentiate Covid from the seasonal flu, this similarity of symptoms will likely produce a sort of social panic for anyone with a cough, fever, or sniffle.
Interesting times are coming.
