EMP, what if you knew

I agree about the average of 500 years, but. If an event happens 3 times in a 1000 year period then the average is 500 years. So, if the last solar event happened say, oh I don't know, 850 years before the 1859 event, then one that happens 150 years later would keep the average at roughly 500 years. They didn't say the events happen 500 years apart, only that it was the average.

Yes, agreed that is the average, but thats what you would use to calculate the odds. I looked at that link. they didnt say 12 percent chance this year, rather 12 percent over the next decade. Thats better, still high in my opinion, but I dont know how to factor in the effect of the gallatic plane, Moldovan wine, or space climate change.

There are enough things on this world to consider that off world events, and the going on's in the galatic plane with all them photons, and bon bon's just isnt a ball I will watch bounce.

I could only hope for such a event to happen with the full effect, I could use the time at home without the cell phone ringing to get at my to do list!

Sometimes I wonder if anyone ever stops to really think about the implications of any of the disaster scenarios we discuss. Whether it be a Carrington event or a global economic collapse, or a global pandemic, or a world war. Whatever happens to bring down civilization, there will be a second event within a few weeks that would be just as bad or worse. If the initial event is more of a slow decline, we may escape most of the second event. If the initial event is sudden and/or catastrophic, that second event is gonna be a bitch.
How many nuclear power plants are out there? With no one getting paid to, or no one healthy enough to, how many of them will still have someone around to make sure the cooling ponds or towers are maintained to prevent meltdown? How many potential Chernobyl's are out there? I wonder what the quality of life is like around Chernobyl nowadays? How many Chernobyl's can the world handle? How many weeks after maintenance stops before all those power plants start to go into meltdown?
It's questions like this that lull me to sleep at night. 😕

Never let a crisis go to waste.......

I believe you are right Taz by predicting a second event after a collapse. Imagine if after the Japan earthquake and tsunami there had been no one organized enough to move into the Fukushima nuclear plant and hold a worldwide catastrophe of biblical proportions at bay. I say at bay because they are barely holding the current situation and making no headway. Imagine that happening on just about every continent.

Depending on the how fast event one and event two occur they will be followed by event three. Event three will be worldwide plague , perhaps something out there already or perhaps something new, perhaps both. A massive mortality rate in conjunction with the inability to properly dispose of the corpses will pretty much ensure that one.

That is a fun what if. 24 hours until the lights go out for an indefinite amount of time...

First, I'd make absolutely sure I was home when the time approached.
Second, I'd be maxing every credit card I own. Nonperishable foods, Winter weight camping gear, garden seeds, better woodstove, water storage containers, trade goods (booze, salt, spices)
Third, a bicycle, with the correct parts to winterize it. I still plan on making the trek to work most days, especially in an EMP situation. I work for the local utility as a technologist. Sure, my current job is as a desk jockey, but in managerese, I'm emminently retaskable. And a happy note the shop I'd most likely end up in is far closer to home than the office tower I currently work in.

If it was a flood, the obvious answer would be 'leave.' Where I currently live we are on a flood plain, so this one we're pretty familiar with. I've had a bag by the back door with food, clothes, water filters and important papers while I sat glued to the radio, listening to minute by minute updates, with one ear cocked to the door to see if the army was going to come knocking and say it was time to go.

Although I believe that in some cases there will be catastrophic nuclear failures, barring physical damage from earthquakes disconnection from the grid or loss of personell will not result in immediate meltdown. Backup onsite electrical generation capability exists to maintain critical systems as well as multiple "failsafe" or dead man systems. If the long term loss of power or personell occours then it could happen but you would have time to evacuate. Fukashima saw a failure on many levels due to physical damage first from the quake itself, the resulting tsunami which destroyed fuel supplies and electrical systems and finally hydrogen gas explosions.

A solar event is much like betting on the horses. Nobody knows for sure which horse is coming in first, and sometimes its the dark horse shows them all up. So do you want to bet your life that a major solar event isnt going to happen between now and March.

Jab have you considered what might happen in Fukushima once the current works who are "holding the line" fail to show up?

Ranger you have made a few references to March 2013 in your posts. I have seen this date quoted on other sites too. However I could not come up with a source for that date other than Web Bot which predicts a "data gap" in 2012 running through May 2013. Can you help me out with this one?

Jab have you considered what might happen in Fukushima once the current works who are "holding the line" fail to show up?

The answer to your question is of course catastrophic failure. I was more refering to the initial reasons for failure. Eventually every nuclear plant will fail for some reason. It is just a matter of timing.

As Alice Cooper once phrased, “Welcome to my Nightmares” for this is what I’ve seen in my dreams.

Everybody seems to think that TEOTWAWKI only happens in nice weather where if any thing happens you can all just hop in the car and head out to your BOL. Well people, we are now going into the most unsettled time of Solar disturbances. Between now and March, the odds of having a Major CME/Solar flare will increase dramatically within the next few month. Most you have not considered, or don’t want to face the fact that one of these Events could happen during a snow/ice storm, when all the major routes out of the city are closed. Think about it people, if a large Carrington Event happened in the middle of our winter…We are screwed. Most of our cities, will become Metro-Necropolis. In other words, a major city of the (frozen) dead. Start reconsidering how much food and heat you have, because spring could be forever and a day in coming, and Death will be sitting patiently on your doorstep. Sweet dreams all. 😈

.

We are screwed

Not true.

Antsy has his Costco 3w LED bulb and Buggie has his power 'bracelet'.

Crashed will have no idea because he will be out doing his marathon or walking the dog.

😛

LOL!

I wonder if my bracelet is edible

I'm going to hook that 3 watt bulb to my wind trainer and pedal until the world restores itself! I should be able to kick Armstrong's ass by the time that happens. 😉