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European Drama

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(@esteldin)
Active Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 13
Topic starter  

Hello everyone..
I am watching the news of the week and i am curious about this new bank fight Italy against Germany.What is your opinion about that?
Also about the nato situation against russia.Why UK send army in estonia and nato wants to build a military defense system in russia boarders?We must be on alert?


   
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peppercorn
(@peppercorn)
Noble Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 2117
 

I will just post so you don't feel ignored.....I would have to type way to much for a comprehensive answer,from my perpective, instead I will shoot for a funny one...Yes Estonia, critical to keep the world spinning on its axis...what? something like 1 point something million people, smaller than a lunch kit,...25, maybe 30 percent Russian...A country I think part of Russia, or under Russian control for 200 or more years, and ofcourse out side those years Estonia was dating other empires....
Now In thrusts the dangeling appendage of the USA (nato) to protect it....I do hope Estonia insisted on protection, if not will the USA marry her if things go wrong, I am betting not...not when the rabbit dies and things really go pear shaped, Nato membership or not.
http://observer.com/2016/02/estonia-wants-more-nato-troops-but-only-if-they-arent-black/ ya, just a country we should die fighting for...NOT ME

And that article is your answer why UK and Canadian troops are there rather than USA troops......the black troops keep getting beaten up by the locals, and that makes for bad press, cant have bad press when your drumming for war. The thought is Canada/uk has less black soldiers (proportionaly) likely to offend the locals....

Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.


   
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(@wabsey11)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 40
 

Hello Esteldin, I've been looking at it as well and there is no need to worry about it in my opinion. We can't do anything to change the worlds leaders opinions so you can't worry about what you can't change. Russia is never going to start anything, it's not in there interest to start anything, it's a shame that our politicians keep poking the bear though. There's no need of it, but as I stated earlier, you can't control it so no need to worry about it. All sides know that there's not one thing to gain. The only thing to do is keep having fun and hope conscription will never get invoked again. Take care from Spryfield.

Don't Agonize, Organize.


   
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(@helicopilot)
Member Moderator
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1487
 

I've been looking at it as well and there is no need to worry about it in my opinion.

Well, optimism is a great thing, but...

We can't do anything to change the worlds leaders opinions so you can't worry about what you can't change.

Completely agree!!

Russia is never going to start anything

I think the people of South Ossetia, Georgia, Crimea and Russia may disagree a little. Same goes for pretty much any neighbouring counties (Poland and Latvia come to mind). NATO is arguably doing some fancy footsteps, but its a tough spot to be. If nothing is done, it may be perceived by the Kremlin that the rest of the world doesn't care and be seen as a green light for further expansion. If NATO comes out to strong, it can be seen as agression... Touchy!


   
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 prom
(@prom)
Estimable Member
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 236
 

Just to clarify a couple of things.
The missile defense system is not going to bu built "in russia borders". The land components of the system are located at Deveselu, Romania (1000 km from russian border), Kurecik, Turkey (600 kim) , Redzikovo, Poland (700 km) and Ramstein, Germany (1700 km) . None of the countries have a direct border with russia.

Russia has already started something by annexing Crimea, part of Ukraine, a sovereign country whose territorial integrity Russia committed to protect by signing the Budapest memorandum. Putin is a pragmatic bully and he will not go further unless he feels NATO is weak and it won't respond. This is exactly why NATO is sending troops into the eastern member countries and doing all the military exercises. And also that is why is good to have a missile defense system (which is designed to counter threats from middle east not from russia 🙄 )


   
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(@esteldin)
Active Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 13
Topic starter  

And what about with economic crysis??


   
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 prom
(@prom)
Estimable Member
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 236
 

And what about with economic crysis??

The only thing we are certain about this is that it's coming. When, how bad, how long? It's anybody's guess


   
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(@esteldin)
Active Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 13
Topic starter  

I am watching the Greek news and the best is increasing like hell..Every month our debt increases by 1 billion.They are demanding to stop payments at civil servants for few months.People start talking about economic crash,but if this really happens we will see scenes like Venezuela.What the news in Canada or other countries about us,because here if someone says something pretty much they shut his mouth..


   
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(@thecrownsown)
Prominent Member
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 858
 

I am watching the Greek news and the best is increasing like hell..Every month our debt increases by 1 billion.They are demanding to stop payments at civil servants for few months.People start talking about economic crash,but if this really happens we will see scenes like Venezuela.What the news in Canada or other countries about us,because here if someone says something pretty much they shut his mouth..

Virtually nothing in the news about Greece and their debt crisis except the odd reference on BNN or WSJ. I feel for countries like Greece, Venezuela, Argentina, etc. where free spending socialism have essentially destroyed economies and lives.... Whats truly unfortunate is that stopping the crisis before it happens would be much easier then after the crisis begins. But what politician is popular for fiscal restraint....I cant think of one at all...

https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738


   
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(@wabsey11)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 40
 

It is true Esteldin, no one wants to acknowledge that anything is happening anywhere. Whether it's the trouble in the EU, South America, Middle East. As long as they are fed at the cheapest price possible no matter what is in the food; a co-worker was just commenting on the spray they put on the oranges to ripen then quickly as if it was a normal thing, though unfortunately it is, but shouldn't be. Or even the new situation in South Sudan, folks around here don't know, nor want to know. I still think Russia is not the threat unless we make then the threat and force then to act. We'll just have to wait, and as my old boss always said, luck favours the prepared. Take care.

Don't Agonize, Organize.


   
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(@esteldin)
Active Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 13
Topic starter  

I hope russia won't act..Because here in Greece we have the Mount Athos(if someone don't know is a place that they are living only priests) and they had some visions many years before about that economic crysis and the war in the middle east.It's coming true so far and i don't want to see the rest.
If someone want to check it here is the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4qpT_ow3sc


   
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(@wabsey11)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 40
 

With everything going on over there, there is no need for convincing anyone in Europe, Africa, Asia, South America, Latin America, because the people feel it everyday just trying to survive. The concern of fresh water, food, terrorism, and keeping the family safe. Our concerns are ridiculous in comparison. Well, some over here are having troubling issues, the Inuit up North are having a terrible time with TB (tuberculoses), water, food, jobs and of course the ice packs. There are people in Nova Scotia in trouble as well but nothing hard work can't handle for the most part. Hopefully it all works out for everyone. Take care.

Don't Agonize, Organize.


   
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 prom
(@prom)
Estimable Member
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 236
 

I hope russia won't act..Because here in Greece we have the Mount Athos(if someone don't know is a place that they are living only priests) and they had some visions many years before about that economic crysis and the war in the middle east.It's coming true so far and i don't want to see the rest.
If someone want to check it here is the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4qpT_ow3sc

I think the prophecy it's coming true 😯

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/turkey-prime-minister-coup-attempt-foiled-160716001125028.html


   
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 prom
(@prom)
Estimable Member
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 236
 

Why Turkey’s coup failed, according to an expert

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/why-turkey%E2%80%99s-coup-failed-according-to-an-expert/ar-BBupbWa?li=BBuiSO9&ocid=spartandhp

Friday night’s military coup against Turkey’s civilian leadership appears to have failed. By Saturday morning, The New York Times reports, Turkey’s security services had detained "thousands of military personnel" who had participated in the coup.

"There were few signs that those who had taken part in the coup attempt were still able to challenge the government, and many declared the uprising a failure," the Times’ Tim Arango and Ceylan Yeginsu write.

That raises two big questions this morning: Why did Turkey’s coup fail, and what happens in the country next?

Naunihal Singh has some helpful answers. Singh is an academic and the author of Seizing Power, a groundbreaking book on coups. Singh drew on a huge dataset of coup attempts, as well as hundreds of hours of interviews with actual coup participants, to develop a comprehensive picture of what makes coups succeed or fail.

Last night, as it seemed the coup in Turkey was faltering, I called up Singh to ask him what he thought of the situation — and what it tells us about the future of Turkish democracy.

According to Singh, the failure of Turkey’s coup wasn’t likely determined by the coup plotters’ military strength, or even their support inside the military. It was determined by their inability to make it seem like they were going to succeed. The ability to shape perceptions of success, often through media, is crucial in coups — basically, if people think a coup is going to succeed, they usually just join up because they don’t want to be on the wrong side of the guns.

The Turkey plotters failed to create this perception, and now they — and Turkish democracy — may end up paying the price.

Turkey fits the historic pattern of failed coups

The first thing to understand about Turkey’s coup, according to Singh, is that the coup plotters didn’t put up scorched-earth military resistance. Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim says that 265 people were killed in clashes — which is horrible (if true), but still not nearly the number there could have been had the tanks and troops throughout Istanbul and Ankara engaged in full-scale conflict.

"Coup supporters didn’t try to fight till their last breath," Singh says. "These are groups that are willing to surrender even if they might be tried for treason afterwards."

According to Singh, this is common in coups. The whole point of a coup is for a faction of the military to take over the government without kicking off a civil war. They want control over a stable society, not one fracturing into bloodshed. That means that coups are typically marked by defections to whatever side appears to be winning, rather than outright military conflict between factions.

In coups, then, perception is reality: If Turkey’s coup leaders had successfully created the perception that the overthrow of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was inevitable, then even Erdogan sympathizers in Turkey’s security services would have been unlikely to oppose them.

"When a coup starts, it’s by faction: It’s a small number of people who are trying to takeover, and perhaps a small number of diehard loyalists, but most of the military is sitting in the middle," Singh explains. These fence-sitters "choose the side that they think will win, and when enough people do that it has a self-fulfilling aspect."

Turkey’s coup plotters, by all accounts, failed to do that.

One critical way to create this self-fulfilling prophecy, according to Singh’s research, is to take control of the broadcast media. Once you’ve got the radio and television stations, you then use them to tell everyone the government has already been overthrown. That convinces people in the military that the coup has succeeded, leading them to take your side.

But reports on the ground say that this didn’t happen. President Erdogan managed to make a televised statement opposing the coup (though he did so, amusingly, via a cellphone on Skype). Leaders of major political parties, including the opposition, publicly opposed the coup.

Perhaps most importantly, the coup plotters did a very poor job of getting their message out. While they did seize a number of media outlets, like CNN Turk, they failed to use them effectively in broadcasting their message.

"We had no clear statement from the coup forces. No leader came on TV, no real manifesto," ZeynepTufekci, a professor at the University of North Carolina who was in Turkey during the coup attempt, tweeted. "In Turkey, successful coup attempts are massive, happen within chain-of-command, and take over media immediately."

The coup plotters failed to establish the perception that they were fully in control, and hence failed to win the overwhelming bulk of the military to their side. It’s still early, so we can’t be sure of anything. But given Singh’s research, and the information we have, it’s very likely that this explains — at least in part — why they failed.

What happens when coups fail

After any coup fails, the nightmare scenario is a mass, violent purge of "disloyal forces" by the government. Erdogan’s heated rhetoric last night suggested this was a real possibility. He blamed the coup on his political opponents in the Gulen movement, and warned in a televised address that "they will pay a heavy price for their treason to Turkey."

Luckily, Singh says, violent purges after coups are actually fairly rare — because they’re not in the government’s interest.

When the government starts killing people in the military, even officers who weren’t involved in the current coup get nervous about the government one day killing them. That makes another coup in response to the purges — Singh calls this a "counter-coup" — more likely. Governments know this, and so generally respond to coups by putting loyalists in charge of the military, rather than killing soldiers en masse.

"What you [typically] see is more consolidation than retribution," Singh says. "Consolidation [means] making sure your guys are in power. But you don’t see retribution because too much retribution sets up the risk of a counter-coup."

This doesn’t mean mass violence is outside the realm of possibility. But it does mean that Erdogan’s heated rhetoric isn’t necessary a good guide to what he’ll actually do when it comes down to it.

The more subtle and pernicious consequence could be serious damage to Turkey’s democracy — and even a transition to authoritarianism.

For years now, Erdogan has been attempting to stifle dissent and consolidate power in his own office. He’s cracked down on Turkey’s freedom of the press, violently dispersed anti-government demonstrations, and pushed constitutional changes that would consolidate dangerous amounts of power in the office of the presidency.

Previously, Turkish democratic institutions had seemed strong enough to fend off Erdogan. Erdogan’s party lost a June 2015 national election, in large part due to the Turkish public rejecting Erdogan’s proposal to amend the constitution and give himself greater powers.

But it’s possible that the coup attempt might change things. The coup made Erdogan, previously the authoritarian villain, look like he was the defender of Turkish democracy. It also created fears of instability that might make people more amenable to his strongman pitch.

That’s the biggest fear for Turkey watchers right now.

The failed coup "will clear the way for total domination of Turkish politics by Erdogan," Dani Rodrik, an economist at Harvard, told my colleague Ezra Klein last night. "It will make it easier for him to make the constitutional changes he wants to make himself essentially the one and only politician deciding everything in the country."

So while mass bloodshed may be unlikely, a more insidious risk — that the coup ushers in the death of Turkish democracy — is very much on the table.


   
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(@esteldin)
Active Member
Joined: 8 years ago
Posts: 13
Topic starter  

Everyone can understand that it was a big fake coup..The army is not that stupid to fail..
First of all if you want to do a coup in 2016,you have to shut down the satelites,phones,media...Not to close streets
Second they knew that Erntogan was in vacations and of course it was the first thing to do..Arrest him in the hotel before you even start.
Third he was for 3 hours in the air..If you want to succeed you have to kill him or arrest him.They had f-16 and Cobra helicopters in their possession,it was easy to open fire and kill him in the air.

On the other side Greece was on high alert,because last time we lost the half Cyprus in Turkey Coup.We have 8 soldiers because they pass the boarders with a cobra and they are gonna be judged by our law and european law and they didn't like it.
He succeed to obtain more power change the military leaders and the court leaders,but everyone starting to see it.
We are still on high alert because they still control navy forces and we don't have news from Ancara


   
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