Well if you start seeing mass looting and hearing gun shots you waited to long. In my town things would get just as ugly as in the city. There's tons and tons of guns in the town and surrounding farm lands. I would guess at least one or two for every man, women, child and dog. I'd grab my family and BOB's and head to my BOL as soon as looting started or as soon as my family couldn't get fuel. If I can not get fuel, that's my clue to head for the hills and bunker down into survival mode. Keeping an ear to the radio I wouldn't come out from hiding until I was absolutely sure everything was going to be ok. Thanks to the cell phone I could call my friends and remaining family for info on the situation, there will always be someone behind to forward info. It's sad but valuable. Make sure you start rationing food, and water, begin with only eating out of your stores if you can not kill enough small game without advertising your location to other. Only my like minded friends and family would have an idea of where I could be and I also would know kinda where they might be. Looking for additional people would be a difficult matter to decide. I wouldn't go and seek them out. They on the other hand will try and find me. Hopefully after hearing me talk about this kind of stuff for awhile would also bring in some additional supplies and resources. I'm sure if I could get out at the first clues of a falling apart town or SHTF situation, that me and my family would be ok in the long run. Trying to leave while SHTF is in full effect would compromise my families safety and survival. My greatest fear is a pending SHTF situation at the start of winter, one of the hardest times of year, and the cold could make me make the deadly sin of waiting to long to get out of dodge. Hopefully I can fix that error in thinking and get a better shelter at my BOL soon.

The title reminded me of a quote on another forum..."The information presented here may lead one to believe that things might get bumpy, but not 'eat the house cat' bumpy." I guess talk of martial law, bank runs, 911 not working and criminals running amok and unhindered by law enforcement would cause me to assess and prepare for a new adventure...until such a time it's life as usual, putting stuff aside and paying attention to what's going on.

This has the potential to be a very interesting thread. I think that as a prepper you would have a good insight from the onset of the situation as to whether this was going to turn out to be short lived or last for some time. Also as a prepper you would have a plan on how to react to this situation or perhaps to a scenario on something close to it. That would be your edge over most people in your neighborhood. However it is possible that if all communications were down you could be in the dark as much as the next guy but of course you would have planned for this and would have a short wave radio at your disposal. Knowing the scope of the situation would allow you to implement your plan. The last thing that you want to be doing would be trying to develop a plan of action in the middle of a crisis.

So at what point in your current plan would you hunker down and bug in or bug out if that was part of your plan? I think we are going to get a lot of different and interesting approaches.

My current plan is pretty basic. I'm prepped for a year. That is to say, if the SHTF in Fall I'm good over the long cold winter. Spring I can plant and hunt.
I live in a great village but when people get hungry..... So that being said: I'm assuming that some thing similar to a CME. Not necessarily a CME just no city provided resources or communications. That being assumed; how do we really know what’s happening? Best try to participate in the community, take advantage of emergency services available then if still nothing is "turning on" or being delivered - hunker down, go quiet and start surviving.
I have the advantage of being a Firefighter here in town here so I feel I have a moral obligation to use those resouces to help my neighbours but be ready to use them to help my self when they are too far gone for me to add to thier success.
Wait until those who were not prepared to wait "it" out to disappear (say 2 months?) then venture out and try to add to the stores.
I'd assume some of my neighbors’ would have done something similar so maybe they'd be willing to cooperate. Being weary would be second nature at this point and I'm armed. I don't think I'd let on to the degree I'm prepped just in case. But finding skills in others that I lack is something that should not be over looked.
That being said: I'd grab my gun and bring in the cat.
Sens

One the worst mobile threats that we have, and will get worse if TSHTF comes around are the motorcycle gangs. Think about it, what other criminal organization in Canada and the US can ride around in plain site and know that the cops wont stop them. They smuggle guns and drugs, and they own legal establishments for money washing and distributing. Those people that get caught in the cities at TEOTWAWKI, will be caught in hell with only a few ways out, usually by giving everything that you have to them. The police are understaffed and when TSHTF do you think that half of them wouldnt take off themselves?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2009/04/01/f-biker-gangs.html

I see your point. We don't see many "Gangs" out where I am and hopefully if they ever rode though, I'd be secure and quiet at that point.
I have the advantage of being a Firefighter here in town here so I feel I have a moral obligation to use those resouces to help my neighbours but be ready to use them to help my self when they are too far gone for me to add to thier success. I imagine the same would happen to the Police .
(as in my previous post)

Sentractor our situations have much in common. I have food for a year or more. I would hunt and fish starting as soon as it was safe to do so. Our domiciles are similar and I too am a fireman. In a SHTF situation I would venture out. In fact at the beginning before things had time to get really bad I would be out there offering what I could in terms of advice to the community. Some may listen and benefit from it, at least I would have tried. I might even attempt some organization, something along the lines of a beefed up neighborhood watch. After that I would hunker down somewhat and see what panned out.

The only way to know what is really going on in other areas of the Province, country and world would be to monitor radio broadcasts. In any community there will be rumors that will spread like wildfire, best to be informed. You said "I'd assume some of my neighbours' would have done something similar". I don't know if I would make that assumption. Some might but the time to make that educated guess is now before the SHTF. As a member of the fire department you are already a valuable member of the community. It is always good to approach neighbours and co-workers and test the waters so to speak. I certainly would not advertise the fact that you are a prepper but bring something up in casual conversation something topical that is in the news and that is related to prepping such as natural disasters, economic collapse etc. You will soon see who the like minded people are, then go from there. I would definitely try to find a few local, like minded individuals. It will increase chances of survival many fold.

That two month time period could be a bit tricky. If it was a prolonged situation with a significant death toll there would be rampant disease which would exacerbate the problem. Venturing out at this point could be medically hazardous. Again staying informed is one of your best defences.

Well said ICRCC! I'd be inclined to stay put after the SHTF without any outside contact for at least 6 months - after the first wave of gangs, deaths from starvation, and disease.... Just observing quietly and surviving.

This is very interesting. However I don't think I would hide out as long as some. I would want to take advantage of the local game animals, if it was safe to hunt/fish I would be at it first chance I had. I do have resources in supply but figure I would only have enough for about 2 months then things would get uncomfortable. Most people assume we will have power which I doubt!!! I think after a week people would be getting into theft and pooling resources. I figure you would see looting within 1 month and violence would skyrocket very quickly. The government will not be responsible for the death of any criminal and would release all incarcerated offenders in the provincial system before letting starvation kick in. That's when we as a society will have a big problem. This does include people awaiting trial for everything from driving offenses to murder!!!

I feel like your being generous with your timeline. With the bombardment of apocalyptic shows and movies it's already wired into the masses brains. And the last time we were without power for an extended period of time looting started on day 3 here in Hamilton. Cars without rims on upperjames on dealer ship lots by the third day.

cars without rims in Hamilton.... here I thought that was just an everyday thing

Isn't that the way to ride the rails?

when things get bad really depends on the situation. if it's a money issue, as food becomes unaffordable, you'll have more crime, and when the gobberment can't fix it you're have bread riots. . .

9 meals is a number put out there a lot. but those with little kids might be a lot less then 9 meals. little suzie crying just might put joe blow over the edge to do something rash. i just hope joe blow isn't my neighbour, i don't want to feed little suzie for him. . . (nor do i want to tell him no when he asks, or stop him when he insists)

keeping preps quiet now, helps me later. keeping gray later will help me long term.

not many in my area will freeze in the winter (assuming they get their firewood in early) my firewood is hidden, so there isn't much chance people would come ask for it, but there will be a lot of wood stoves heat, and smoke from it, letting everyone know who's got wood. that's not really concerning too me, it's the smell of food cooking.

next year my barn will be full of fruits in cold storage, i should have a root cellar by next fall and that will be full. my garden learning the last couple of years has taught me enough to plan more ahead with what i grow.

my security system will tell me if someone is coming near, and it'll tell me where they are when they get hear, even if i'm working outside. if things were bad, i'd be armed while on my property. if there was a complete break down and we were WROL (without rule of law) i'd be armed every where. if there was noticeable crime in my area (which would actually be hard to notice where i live) we'd always have someone watching out, while others were working outside.

i've thought a lot about trigger points, but they are really hard to define. if the forest around me is on fire, while that's something i've planned for. if there is a melt down or a NBC attack in Toronto, after i raise a glass (i really hate toronto. . ) (oh just kidding on the raising the glass, but i do hate Toronto ) i'd hunker in.

but i think we are in the slow downward slide to bad times. if it every gets to the point of bugging in or out i don't know, but gone are the days of cheap food, gas, and stuff. . . things have to either reset to make things work again (and that will be from hard times, or a mass wake up of stupid people doing stupid things with money) or a collapse of modern society.

just my before bed thoughts.